Tuesday 27 January 2015

Dubai International Racing Carnival Night Four: 29th January 2015

Hello & welcome along to my continuing look at the #DWCC2015 from +MeydanRacing last week was slightly below the quality of the previous 2 weeks as an overall card but we were still treated to 3 standout performances from the fast improving Safety Check who sauntered to Group 2 success, the returning unexposed South African Umgiyo who despite not having the race run to suit ran out an impressive showing a smart turn of foot & lastly from Tamarkuz who may have his own ideas about the game but he destroyed his opponents on the dirt making all blitzing the track record in the process.

After the rain that hit last week & the way the races were run it appeared that the dirt surface had become much more compact resulting in a more pronounced bias than had been evident previously in favour of front runners as Beat Baby & Tamarkuz showed.
Of course like any race if they go off too fast then a horse who has sat in behind the pace can still win like the 10f handicap where the 40/1 shot Toolain ran his rivals down but overall it looks as though on the speed is now the place to be on Meydan's dirt surface.



   Opening up Night 4 is a 9.5f dirt handicap;
Artigiano heads the field & this big chestnut son of Distorted Humour should adore this dirt surface, he seems best when on the lead & should make a bold bid. One point I would make on balance his rating flatters him as he has never truly developed into the horse that connections had hoped. 


Storm Belt has been in good form on the new surface but was well beaten by La Bernardin a few weeks back, his new mark appears to have his measure & he is now vulnerable to better horses or improvers. 
Frontier Fighter tries this dirt surface again after going to fast on his first attempt on the surface on opening night, if that run has brought him forward & he can avoid a dual then he has place chances at least.
  Groundbreaking has little dirt form in his pedigree & doesn't race like a horse that will appreciate it, he was most disappointing on his last 2 starts at the end of last season & looks on a stiff enough mark. 


I'm Back improved markedly for the dirt surface on opening night when out-battling the in-form Henry Clay, he has gone up a reasonable 5lbs for that & if the improvement continues is worthy of respect once more.


Dormello is hard to predict at Jebel Ali let alone here, he was sent over favourite for a good quality Listed event at Jebel last time but was one paced & laboured. This drop back in trip may well help & he is dropping down the handicap, potential.
   Busker is out yet again & each time is well fancied, he disappointed in what looked a poor race last week & ended up being a very poor race overall. His mark has his measure now & its best to look elsewhere. 
Beyond Empire was a huge disappointment on his UAW debut here a few weeks ago never travelling before well behind, huge leap of faith required to support him now. 
Giftorm ran an excellent race to finish 4th to Faulkner over a trip well shy of his best, the step up here is certain to suit & he has the services of Silvestre De Sousa here, major player. 


Tiz Now Tiz Then has been running well enough without looking like winning at Jebel & Al AIn recently, this is a much tougher race overall then he is used to now at the grand old age of 10. 
Not A Given had been expected to go well on the new surface back in November / December but was one paced on each start with his mark of over 90 looking a real problem. He dropped to 89 last time out in a weak race at a local meeting here 2 weeks ago & won which appeared a big surprise to all concerned now back up to 95 he has plenty on his plate. 
Corso Como has run just 4 times in his life at small French tracks, his last run was a good effort in a Listed event when only beating around 2 lengths. Appears to have little dirt form in his pedigree but he is very similar to his stablemate Frankyfourfingers who ran so well in the 1st Round of The Al Maktoum Challenge on opening night. Has more to offer from his current mark & could be a massive player if he acts on the surface.  



Giftorm caught my eye last time & I expect to go very close to winning in the hands of SDS.




Race 2 is for the speedsters over 5 furlongs a race that sees the return of last year's dual winner Medicean Man who was an unlucky 3rd in this from a mark of 108 last year. Sure to be ready again & has every chance of being involved once more.


Ahtoug got going all to late on his return when looking as though the race would bring him on, he was 2nd of 107 last year & now races of 110. Will need luck in running but certainly another player. 
Jamesie enjoyed a fine Carnival last time around winning on Tapeta & finishing placed in Group sprints on that same surface. He had a busy summer in Ireland where on each occasion he attempted this trip he was found wanting, like the stables other runners he will most likely need this outing. 
Lancelot Du Lac is a hugely improved handicapper in the last 2 years rising from a mark of 83 to now race of 108, won nicely after some good efforts last time at Lingfield & has plenty of form over this trip. Question mark is his mark which looks problematique in a hot race. 
Sir Maximilian was most disappointing on his first start a few weeks ago never getting involved & dropping away tamely, nothing appeared to come to light & he is on a retrieval mission here. 


Fountain Of Youth is an ex Ballydoyle horse who was well below the standard of O'Brien's better 3yo's last season, he did manage to win a Group 3 over this trip at the Curragh where first time blinkers appeared to galvanise him, they had little effect next time in a similar race & he has plenty on his plate here. 
Bannaadeer (not to be confused with the Richard Hannon 80+ rated handicapper) was last seen early last season running in 2 Grade 1's in South Africa, he was 6th on his last start when quite well beaten over 6f & the time before he was 2nd when 3/5f for a Grade 1 at Turffontein again over 6f appearing to be outstayed. Prior to those runs he had won easily over 5f twice in soft ground at Turffontein. Tries handicaps here for the first time & races against seasoned pro's so will likely need this although Hanagan takes the ride which is a positive.



Speed Hawk switches back to turf after a decent run on his dirt debut last week which was a step back in the right direction, entitled to be involved.
Line Of Reason was in fine form last summer rattling up a hat trick including a premier handicap at the Curragh, he was unlucky when attempting the 4 timer at York as he was carried badly left after leaving the stalls in all his starts thereafter he appeared to struggle from his new mark & he now races of 104 on his UAE debut. 6f appears on the whole to be his best trip but will be finishing fast & not out of this with Marc Monaghan's claim. 
Ajjaadd never threatened here a few weeks but was entitled to be rusty at his age, will need to be in flying form here as this race is much tougher with his mark the largest stumbling block. 
Old Monsieur Joe provides small trainer Paul Midgley with 2 runners. He won off 100 at York in the summer but struggled thereafter, he is also a former Carnival winner off the same mark back in 2012 so has chances if ready to roll from 102 here.
Fityaan has been deserted by Paul Hanagan after a fine run here last time when a fast finishing 2nd after being inconvenienced by racing on the inside of the runners, he is still well handicapped on his best form & could easily give Dane O'Neill a great ride in a race stacked full of pace. 

Fityaan went into my notebook last time after a cracking effort & he is a token selection in a race where anyone of the runners could win.





Race 3 is another of the non Carnival events for the locals;
Filfil is now on a hat trick after 2 wins over course & distance, formerly useful when with Mark Johnston he has taken well to the dirt & should cope with his new mark. 
Need To Know has been going ok recently in similar races although is finding it tougher now rated over 90, his young riders 3lb claim looks a big help here although his run style may be against him. 
Pit Stop was second string to runaway winner Hunting Ground in a similar race last week, he attempted to make the running but did too much & dropped away towards the finish, that race will have brought him & he has chances after seemingly handling the surface fine.
Hunters Creek is a stablemate of Pit Stop's, he performed to a useful level last year in the UK for John Gosden & has hopes of taking to this dirt surface from a mark of 91. 
Life Partner will find this trip much more to his liking than on Meydan debut over 6f last time, he has some highly rated UK handicap form & is bred on similar lines to Hunters Creek. 
Marching Time is getting no younger at the age of 9 & is vulnerable to younger legs here. Alareef was 4th on his return in another local event the other weekend, he appeared to handle the dirt fine & has plenty of potential from his mark given his useful South African handicap form. 
Balierus has been seen once on the track since 2011 & that was way back in 2012, plenty to prove after such an absence. 
One Man Band has taken to the new dirt surface well with 2 nice runs including a win by a neck last time, will need to improve again but may well be capable after only a handful of starts. 
Baarez is blind in his right eye & has only had 4 starts in his life, after a reasonable debut despite showing plenty of attitude he won at short odds next time but was well beaten on both handicap starts thereafter. Should have more to give after just 4 starts but is only the 3rd choice of the owners runners here & is best watched for all dirt should suit him. Georgetown showed nothing in 2 Meydan starts last season & has little hope on pedigree of handling the dirt. 
Lanark formerly a useful 2yo was restricted to just 2 starts last season, he has already tried the new dirt surface & appeared to well enough on it, has been better than this mark before so may be one to watch. 
Muhtaram enjoyed 2 wins back in November here off 72 & 82, he has since been beaten twice of higher marks & looks set to struggle again, although he is a front runner which is more advantageous now. 
Waahy appeared to hate the kickback on his first try on dirt a few weeks ago & is passed over.          

Not a race to be backing in.


  


Fillies & mares open up there Dubian campaigns in the Group 2 Cape Verdi; lets be honest it is rarely a large field but will usually contain plenty of quality this year however that quality appears to be in decline. Useful handicapper / Listed mare Wee Jean represents Mick Channon, her last run was at Group 1 level with a decent 5th place behind Fiesolana at Leopardstown where she attempted to make all only fading late on. 
She had previously been easily beaten in minor pattern class prior to that she had produced the best 2 performances of her career when only getting worn down in the last 50 yards at Sandown & a fast finishing 3rd in the Sandringham at the Royal Meeting. She is a tactically versatile mare who has to be respected in this poor race for the grade.



Zurigha was a no show last week in a handicap behind the boys which was no real surprise, that clearly was a sighter run ahead of this target which is much more suitable, no better than Listed class in the UK she has 2 decent pieces of form at Kempton in the Snowdrop & at Newmarket when beating former South African Champion Igugu, this represents the best chance she will ever get to take out a pattern race.



Anahita is a lightly raced ex French filly who has had just the 6 starts in her life, she won her first 2 starts at the small provincial track Bordeaux Le-Bouscat before failing to make the next step up although she did finish 2nd in a Group 3 at Chantilly behind an English mare Be My Gal who would be a similar type of mare to both Wee Jean & Zurigha. On her last start back at Bordeaux she was 3rd in a Listed event back in September, runners from her new yard on there first start have appeared fit & well with the majority running extremely well, the big concern is that she is by Turtle Bowl whose progeny in the main have a penchant for soft ground.  
(Video below finishing 3rd to Beauty Parlour when favourite)



Cladocera is even more lightly raced than her former gallic raider with just the 5 starts, she like Anahita won her first 2 starts including at Listed level. She then got stuck in the mud on her next 2 starts finishing 10th both times in Group 3 company (first of those Anahita was a few places ahead of her). She then appeared at Kempton in November for a classy listed event finishing an excellent 2nd to Sloane Avenue (AW specialist & next start is The Donn Handicap), that performance showed that there is plenty more left to come from this exciting filly who should adore the fast ground in Dubai, major player.



Slipper Orchid was a huge eye catcher in a good handicap here a few weeks ago, I said then that I would not be interested in her if she contested a Cape Verdi although that was on the assumption that it would be against genuine Group performers which as it has turned out it is not so she has to be respected after having a run which clearly shows she is in good heart after all she doesn't have that much to find on ratings.


   
Energia Fribby was a useful filly in Brazil last season before arriving in the UK where she won on her 2nd start over an extended 1m5f at Chester, this mile is not what she wants & she will be outpaced against these quicker fillies & mares.

    Victoria Regina adds more gallic flavour to this event & is another with just minor form to her name with her 2 career wins coming at Lyon & Marseille, she was a well beaten 5th behind Cladocera in June & has run at trips between 6f - 10f. Like similar french imports there is every chance she can improve in the desert but overall she does appear to have plenty to find on the book.
(Video 4th placed finished to Entree)


Oh Star is an ex John Gosden filly who appeared to struggle to win a maiden last season after failures on her first 4 starts before dropping to Class 5 level at Yarmouth & bolting up by 8 lengths. She was then pitched straight into Listed company finishing a good 2nd to the classy Bawina at Maison Laffite in July (see video). One would imagine if she had a future she would have stayed with John Gosden so she is passed over here.


Not really a betting race for me despite having Slipper Orchid in the notebook she could have plenty on her plate trying to cope with Cladocera. 





7f on dirt is race 5 & weights are headed by Free Wheeling who received such a fine ride when dictating on turf on his return a couple of weeks ago. His dirt mark is much higher as a result of his win on Tapeta last year which is a tad harsh given this surface is completely different, hard to know if he will appreciate it but there are hopes given his ability to race on soft ground & he looked a much better horse on an artificial no turf surface. Also if he can adopt front running tactics that will be a huge help to him.


Sirius Prospect is an admirable handicapper who has plied his trade from 6f to 1m on the turf & AW, he won nicely on his last UK start at Kempton. This is his first try on dirt which is an unknown, his sire Gone West was a top class dirt performer in the late 80's & is the sire of Speightstown so he has every chance of handling the surface.     
United Color steps up to 7f after a staying on 3rd in the Dubawi over 6f last time, he was smartly away but was then unable to lay up with the early speed. He has some form over further in his youth in Italy but the majority of his best form is over 6f.
Russian Soul also drops down into handicap company after missing the break badly in the Dubawi before staying on through beaten horses, he has winning form at 7f a few years ago but will need to break smarter if he is to be involved at all here.
 Another Party performed with credit on his Carnival debut behind Safety Check, he now switches to dirt a surface which is a complete unknown on pedigree, he has form on polytrack in France & on soft ground so there is some hope but this is tough race to be trying it in for the first time. 
Mufarrah has raced from higher marks in the past at the Carnival but has never encountered dirt & that looks a big issue. 
Bello had just the 3 starts here last year keeping good company on each of them, as a son of Exceed And Excel (sire of 1 Carnival winner on Dirt) one has to take it on trust that he will handle the surface although the sires progeny do seem best on artificial surfaces. Has some decent Australian form in his pocket but will need to step up after a year off here. 


Boomshackerlacker seemed ill at ease on the surface last week & was well beaten behind runaway winner Tamarkuz. 
Encipher was well beaten behind Safety Check last week on his return from a year off but returns to a surface here that he has shown a liking for at Jebel Ali on his previous couple of starts last year, not out of this on that form.
Ertijaal was never involved behind Safety Check last week & encounters dirt for the first time a surface he has no real right to like, he looks to going the wrong way quickly.
Muaanid ran a super race stepped up to Group 3 company in the Dubawi last time sticking on well for 4th, should appreciate the step up back in trip here & is a player on these terms. 


Silver Ocean has form in Norway & Sweden on dirt but has rarely performed well at the Carnival in 2 previous tries, hopes rest on the surface bringing about improvement in him & others under-performing on it.   

Tough race looks best left alone.





The big race of the night is the Group 2 Al Rashidiya on turf with a small but select field assembled; 
headed by Mr Pommeroy who ran so well on Carnival debut when just worried out of it on the line but Haafaguinea. He is Group class in France & has already shown an ability to act here so as long as he progresses & does not find this race coming too quickly he should be involved. 



Vercingetorix returns to Dubai the scene of his biggest success to date the controversial success in the Jebel Hatta when team orders were quite clearly at work, he backed that up with a solid effort in the Dubai Duty Free although he was well beaten by the World's Best Racehorse Just A Way that night. He ran just once more afterwards in Hong Kong when 3rd to Designs On Rome & Military Attack (who have gone on to confirm that as good form at the Hong Kong International meeting) when finding the step up in trip against him. Just behind him in 4th that day was runaway Japan Cup winner Epiphaneia. His form has a strong international look to it but the fact remains he does not posses that electric turn of foot that true top class animals have & even though he will be ready to roll he will need everything to drop right for him.




Army Bulletin has similar form lines to stablemate Mr Pommeroy from France last year, open to improvement at 4 he is interesting although on jockey bookings he is the second string here although I would not be surprised if he improved for the faster surface so could well run better than expected. 




Sociologa Inc is a top class mare in Argentina winning a Grade 1 plus a pair of Grade 2's including over 12f on dirt last season, a hugely intriguing runner but one would imagine she will need this over a trip shorter than ideal on her first start. 





Sanshaawes was one paced on his return behind True Story here a few weeks ago, this trip still seems short for him & has yet to really prove up to this company on turf at least. 



Completing the MDK trio is last year's winner Mujaarib who came with a devastating late burst down the outside to collar stablemate Mushreq, he failed to perform to that standard on his next 2 starts stepping up trip both times. He will appreciate the return to this trip but this does look a stronger renewal & on a line through Mushreq he cannot beat True Story



Talking of that horse True Story the impressive Singspiel winner completes the lineup, on that run he holds a couple of his rivals. A horse that promised so much as a 3yo gets the chance to deliver as a 4yo, he has raced against horses of Vercingetorix's quality before & has the fitness edge plus a slight weight advantage, he also has the ability to adapt tactically as this race looks again as though it will be run to suit as one would assume Army Bulletin will make the pace for Mr Pommeroy, True Story should be able to sit in 2nd & kick for home like he did in the Singspiel. I fully expect him to win again as he has what the others in this field lack a turn of foot.       


  
Cracking race in which I do fear Mr Pommeroy but am siding with True Story again to prove he is up to Group class. 




Closing the card is a race of real quality over 10f on turf;
Hunter's Light a dual Group 1 winner at his best including at the Carnival heads the weights in his first start in a handicap, he has been given a chance here & should be ready to roll so is respected. 


Mushreq runs in a handicap for the first time since he won this race back in 2013 of 104, he is the most consistent of performers & cannot be ruled out after a solid effort behind True Story a few weeks ago. 
Haafaguinea only just collared long time leader Mr Pommeroy over this trip a few weeks ago after taking an age to get into top gear, plenty on here from his new mark against some genuine Group performers. 
Elleval ran a nice opening race behind Haafaguinea & he re-opposes on similar terms here, that run should have blown away the cobwebs, entitled to be on the premises if not going close to winning. 


Sennockian Star comes from that same race, he probably over raced on his first start of the year & dropped away before staying on again near the finish, remains high enough in the weights & will need a career best here. 
El Estruendoso cannot be fancied after 2 extremely poor runs on dirt & turf. 
Pilote had a much better chance in his first handicap start last week after what looked a nice run behind True Story yet he failed to really pick up in what was a strongly run race, he is a very small horse who appears to have little improvement left despite a slipping mark compared to what he was competing from in pattern races. 
Almoonqith hated the dirt on his first start here but dropped back to a local meeting on turf next time to win going away at the finish over a mile, new mark will demand more but is certainly going the right way & could be underestimated.


          Scighera was 2nd in the Italian Oaks (see video) back in May on her final start to Final Score who was a respectable 5th at Royal Ascot & won another Group 1 at the end of the season, her 2 wins have come on softer ground & she faces a tough task taking some quality males, this looks like a run to get her started with an eye towards something later in the Carnival against her own sex. 


Castle Guest unsurprisingly struggled on the dirt a few weeks back, he looks harshly treated at present & has work to do. 
Eavesdropper has not set foot on a racecourse in anger since finishing 8th to Twice Over here back in 2011, impossible to know how much ability he retains after 1428 days of the track. 
Antinori was a handy type back in 2010 but has failed to catch fire in the desert although he did win 2 starts back at Abu Dhabi he was then battered back there on his last start & has plenty on his plate here. 
Tanfeeth has shown precious little on his last half dozen starts & has not won since his Meydan debut back in 2012 of a mark of 94, still high enough here & would be a surprising winner. 
Zain Eagle didn't appear to act on the dirt last time coupled with being harried for the lead, he reverts back to turf with Cam Hardie claiming 5lb not badly treated taking into account his best effort last season at York when almost making all in the John Smith's Cup but does face some proper horses here.   

Another excellent race on a top nights racing, both Hunter's Light & Mushreq are respected as they could just be too good for these but there are not getting any younger so I will side with dual Carnival winner Elleval at likely decent odds.



#DWCC2015 Meydan NAPS Comp: 

1). Gary Woods @fttfracing 1/3 33.3% +£30.00 Faulkner 4/1f
2). Adam Webb @AdamWebb121 1/2 50% +£12.50 Local Time 5/4f
3). Calum Madell @calummadell 1/3 33.3% +£6.25 True Story 13/8f
4). Mark Slattery @Marcinoz1 0/1 0% -£10.00 
5). Luke Elder @Lukeelder13 0/2 0% -£20.00 
5). Paul Nathan @paulnathan92 0/2 0% -£20.00
5). Scott Wilson @racingtalkuk 0/2 0% -£20.00
6). Calum Swanlaw @calumswanlaw 0/3 0% - £30.00

All selections settled to a £10 stake (Win or E/W).


@fttfracing
    


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