Good day to you all & welcome along to the blog for Night 3 of the #DWCC2015 over at Meydan where yesterday evening Dubai was experiencing torrential rain & thunder, any turf track is always in need of a good soaking so it will have gained a nice spring to it.
The dirt surface too will also have benefited from any rain that fell so it will be extremely interesting to see how the recent rainfall has affected the new surface at Meydan.
Oisin Murphy
Can't get to sleep with the torrential rain and thunder in Dubai! 
The dirt surface too will also have benefited from any rain that fell so it will be extremely interesting to see how the recent rainfall has affected the new surface at Meydan.
Opening up Thursday's card is a 6f dirt handicap;
Mashaaref heads the weights trying 6f for the first time in his career, not sighted last time out & beaten the time before that at Jebel Ali he appears to be on an extremely tough mark which so far he has not looked up to.
Over The Ocean is a useful Scandinavian dirt sprinter who has been in good form in the last year, often a front runner which should be to his advantage here, he dead heated at Listed level at Jagerso last season before only just losing out in a Group 3 back at the same course, one to take note of.
(Video is a 2nd place finishing position in Group 3 Zawawi Cup at Jagerso).
(Video is a 2nd place finishing position in Group 3 Zawawi Cup at Jagerso).
Fellow Scandinavian raider & stablemate Beat Baby has been here before finishing 2nd at 33/1 in a 5f handicap last season, he went on to run well enough back home but does look held by Over The Ocean or recent form especially on dirt & he will not be getting any better at the age of 8.
Sholaan goes particularly well over Jebel Ali's 5f with 3 wins there & plenty of consistent runs, he is currently on what looks a useful mark if he transfer that form to Meydan & lasts home over the 6f.
Speed Hawk ties dirt for the first time which on pedigree he will improve for as it is dirt through & through, the negative was he showed little on his first start 2 weeks ago dropping away tamely although it has since come to light that he was lame which is a worry switching the harder dirt surface but he has to be worth another chance though considering the improvement he showed last season.
Speed Hawk ties dirt for the first time which on pedigree he will improve for as it is dirt through & through, the negative was he showed little on his first start 2 weeks ago dropping away tamely although it has since come to light that he was lame which is a worry switching the harder dirt surface but he has to be worth another chance though considering the improvement he showed last season.
Merhee pulled too hard on his return at 7f recently & tries dirt for the second time in his career after an auspicious run at Jebel Ali finishing a distant 10th, plenty to prove.
Figure Of Speech went off too fast on his most recent start which was his dirt debut & dropped away tamely, has ability but rarely consents to showing it.
The handicapper appeared to have finally caught up with Price Is Truth last time after clobbering him with a 38lb rise in only 3 runs, he showed very little that day but the drop back to 6f does offer hope for a horse that has shown proven form on the surface.
Sir Freddie is the third of the Scandinavians in this race, he appears on form at least to not be in the same class as his fellow countrymen as he has been well beaten each time they have met but he is a pure dirt horse winning plenty of minor races in Norway & Sweden, should not be underestimated from his current mark.
Touch Gold dipped his toes into Listed company last week after improving through the ranks in the last year & he failed miserably being well beaten in a strongly run race, he should enjoy these calmer waters & has place chances.
Tough race to open proceedings, Speed Hawk is interesting encountering dirt for the first time but perhaps this is best left to the Scandinavians with a preference for Over The Ocean although I won't be having a bet.
The second race on the card is a 10f dirt race for horses rated between 110 - 95;
Energia El Gigante heads the weights courtesy of some wins in handicap company in Scandinavia & a near 12 length victory in poor Listed Race on dirt at Taby last time. On his previous try at the Carnival he was well beaten in every race he competed in & his turf form in Scandinavia is behind some Carnival also ran's too, his one hope lies on the new dirt surface but he does seem to be on too higher mark.
Farrier was unlucky last time getting shuffled back early after some interference meant his was unable to run on his own merit previous to that he had shown a liking to the new surface step up in trip looks set to suit & should be involved from his mark.
Farrier was unlucky last time getting shuffled back early after some interference meant his was unable to run on his own merit previous to that he had shown a liking to the new surface step up in trip looks set to suit & should be involved from his mark.
Indiana Jones will need a good test at this trip as the majority of his form is at trips in excess of 12 furlongs on turf & dirt in Argentina, not one of the stars from his native land more a mid level performer who looks only a bit part player here.
Henry Clay is another local horse to have taking a liking to the new surface & has performed with credit on all of his starts so far, got the run of the race last time out on the lead & was out battled by a horse carrying no weight in I'm Back, he has been raised again here to a mark of 104 which will demand more especially given that Farrier (who was hampered early in behind) races from that same mark, still has to be respected given his excellent recent course form.
Henry Clay is another local horse to have taking a liking to the new surface & has performed with credit on all of his starts so far, got the run of the race last time out on the lead & was out battled by a horse carrying no weight in I'm Back, he has been raised again here to a mark of 104 which will demand more especially given that Farrier (who was hampered early in behind) races from that same mark, still has to be respected given his excellent recent course form.
Tha'ir is a game little horse who has won on the Turf & convincingly on the Tapeta at last year's Carnival, almost back on his last winning mark but the dirt is a huge unknown, on the positive side he is adaptable & rarely runs a bad race.
Fattsota represents the excellent David O'Meara, he had a decent season last time around competing to a decent level of marks in & around the 100 barrier. His last appearance at the Carnival was rather inauspicious despite one well beaten 2nd in Tapeta. No form on dirt & little in the immediate pedigree so he has plenty to prove, hope rests that he is effective on a soft surface which usually helps on dirt.
Busker got left well behind early last time out in the Henry Clay race & finished a never nearer 4th, he ran as though he did have more to give from his current mark of 100 if he had broken on terms & looks to have plenty going for him here.
Dragon Falls perhaps surprisingly for me at least steps up another half furlong in trip after appearing to run out of stamina reserves in the Henry Clay race at 9.5 furlongs last time, he went into the notebook after that for a 7f dirt race but not for a race of this nature so it is with reluctance that I will leave him alone here.
Toolain won a couple of minor races in Saudi Arabia last year but his last win of note was of 82 at Jebel Ali so he looks particularly harshly treated.
Torchlighter was a huge positive on the tote last time going off a strong favourite, he pulled too hard early & failed to truly get home although he did hang around for longer than you would expect, interesting connections try dirt once again, mark does demand him to improve but a bold show now he has had a run would not be the greatest surprise. For a 5yo Urban Dance is extremely lightly raced with just the 6 starts so far competing at a more than useful handicap level, on his 2nd start he beat the classy Velox while on his 3rd start when 2nd at Newmarket he was sandwiched between Amralah (Subsequent Listed & Group 3 winner) & Lord Van Percy (Van Percy as he was then). His first start last season was a 7th in a good quality handicap on Guineas weekend, he then did not reappear for 2 months when not getting the run of the race on Newmarket's July Course, only a few minor problems have kept him off the track since as he has been in the main saved for the Carnival. His sire Street Cry is the leading sire of dirt performers at Meydan with 5 winners so far, Urban Dance's younger half sister Hidden Gold has shown a liking for an artificial surface rattling up a 4 timer with the last 3 wins on the AW in the UK, interesting with young Cam Hardie claiming.
Robert The Painter is a second runner from the David O'Meara stable, he struggled at last year's Carnival. He has no form on dirt but his full brother Yaa Wayl did win a 7f handicap at Jebel Ali back in 2013 so he clearly has a chance of handling the surface.
Energia Fox was one of the top 3yo fillies in Brazil last season placing in some good races on turf, she showed just ok form switched to the turf in the UK but as a result her mark has dropped to one which she has at least been competitive on the AW, has to prove she is as effective on dirt.
Farrier, Henry Clay & Busker are all respected but I am willing to have a flyer on Urban Dance on his first start on dirt to confirm his early promise.
A non carnival 10f dirt handicap follows next as race 3;
Hunting Ground is an ex Mark Johnston horse who has run plenty of times in his career including a win & a place at Southwell which bodes well for this surface as does being a son of Street Cry, sure to go well.
Jalaa is another son of Street Cry, he has shown form at Jebel Ali but has yet to race over this trip & looks to have slightly gone of the boil.
Sefri has run well twice recently at Jebel Ali in decent races although each time he has been caught on the outside of the field down a straight track looking as if he had plenty more to offer, this is his second time on Meydan's dirt track (his first taste of the new surface was on his seasonal debut when he looked in dire need of the race) sure to go better this time with the return to a turning track a major plus.
Pit Stop still has more to offer as a 4yo after a handful of starts in useful handicap company back in Ireland last year although he did suffer after winning at Leopardstown back in June as he failed to be competitive again, dirt at this trip is a huge unknown.
Respect Me's form has an uneven look to it after a decent if well beaten 4th in a Listed event here in December he dropped back to a mile at Jebel last time & was again well beaten, overall he does not look up to his current mark.
Malekov has one piece of Jebel Ali dirt form to his name where he never got involved till late but was still beating far enough, Abu Dhabi form on turf at a lower level is ok but has plenty to find here.
Ibn Al Nafis made his return after 2 years of the track at Meydan on Saturday in the local meeting, surely a tough task awaits here just a few days later despite having decent dirt form in the book back at Jebel back in 2012.
Cry Joy is unexposed after a handful of starts, he broke his maiden in December on the dirt & followed that up with a solid run in handicap company, mark still appealing & has a chance in a poor race.
Udabaa has been out of form for a while & faces a uphill task here.
Street Act was poorly positioned in a similar race last week before running on through beaten horses to grab 2nd behind easy winner Layl, on that form he should at least be involved but for me remains vulnerable to anything better than him despite carrying bottom weight here.
Sefri has left me with the impression that there is more left in the tank especially now encountering a bend again.
A quality 9f turf handicap is race 4 on the card;
Ocean Tempest runs for the third week running after a no show on dirt & a staying on 5th over 10f here last week, he never really looked like getting involved & remains on a mark that makes him vulnerable although after the recent rain storm the ground will be ever so slightly more in his favour than normal.
Stablemate Tenor was a late withdrawal last week but similar comments apply as from his current mark he makes little appeal.
Steeler looked to have gone at the game in Dubai last year but returned to the UK with some good placed efforts in top handicaps, he was poor in a Group 3 at Goodwood & was beaten in a tactical small field race behind Tenor at Bath thereafter. Should be well primed for this & makes some appeal although he does need to prove that he still knows how to win.
Our Channel had a mixed season last year winning at Epsom from the front in the Blue Riband Trial before being outclassed in the Derby itself, he then crossed the Atlantic to receive a poor ride in the American Derby before returning to the UK with an unplaced effort in a top Goodwood handicap. His final start was a 2nd in Turkey behind Glory Awaits, useful at his best & has the help of the excellent Silvestre De Sousa here.
Pilote drops back into handicap company after a promising run behind True Story, he made up plenty of ground late on. He was a Group performer in France so this is by far his easiest task that he has faced in the last 2 years & he could well be up to it.
Rock Cocktail has not been seen since late 2013, he was a useful conditions to top level handicapper in South Africa & did compete in Grade 1 races although the closet he got was a 5th to Vercingetorix in June of 2013, like all MDK horses he will more than likely need this first outing so is best watched.
Zurigha is no more than useful mare at Listed to very weak Group 3 level in the UK & faces a huge task taking on the boys for the first time over this trip.
Disa Leader reverts back to turf after a complete no show on dirt which was disappointing last time, he has plenty of form in the book at Meydan of marks in & around 102 so is respected but he again will need this after showing little last time, overall you would be disappointed if he won this as a 9yo.
Umgiyo is the choice of Christophe Soumillon from the MDK trio, his last run was a Grade 1 in March last year when he was quite easily beaten (see video below finished 7th), his form in general is in conditions events where he was finishing in behind always looking as though there was more to come. Starts life in handicaps from what could be a favourable mark so if ready to roll he is respected.
Validus was a useful handicapper in the UK in 2013, switched to Dubai last year he had one start a year ago & has been off through a setback ever since. Resumes on a mark that on old form he is more than capable of getting involved from so is interesting with his stable in good form especially as he is the type of horse that SBS does so well with at the Carnival.
Yet another tough & intriguing race in which Pilote (NB) having already had a run should gain his first victory in a while.
Another classy race follows with an 8f dirt handicap for horses rated between 110 - 100;
Limario tops them a minor German Group 3 winner at his best he was well beaten on all his Carnival starts last season, dirt is an imponderable on pedigree although as a soft ground performer he has possibilities of adapting to it.
Empire Storm ran better than his finishing position suggested in Round 1 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, he was never in a challenging position but ran on towards the finish suggesting this slightly lower grade could well see him get involved.
Tamarkuz ran right up to his best on his dirt debut only to find the classy Faulkner too good, up another furlong here & now off 107 he will need to improve again but that is not impossible.
Boomshackerlacker represents George Baker's stable who had a winner last week with the old rogue Belgian Bill, this lad is also notoriously difficult to win with but does like soft ground so has possibilities on dirt although he looks high enough in the weights. Colmar Kid has shown a liking for the dirt at Jebel Ali but was beaten by the 25/1 outsider of 5 runners last time & has yet to win of a mark over 100.
Haatheq looks to have been found a good opportunity of getting back in the winners enclosure, he is proven on the surface running on powerfully to finish 3rd to Surfer last time, he is on a favourable mark & must go well.
Samurai Sword turns to dirt for the first time in his short career after finding Listed company behind True Story too tough last time, he strikes as the type of horse to handle the surface even though his pedigree is all about turf there is just something about the way he moves that suggests the dirt will help him.
Prince Alzain is a quality AW in the UK at trips between 9.5 furlongs to 12 furlongs although the majority of his wins have been at 9.5f, this mile might well catch him out on his first try on dirt. His sire Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense means he should handle it although his dam the classy Monaassabaat was best on turf.
Edu Querido won his maiden on dirt in Brazil but thereafter ran solely on turf, his Meydan form last year was poor as is his UK form overall although he did win from a reduced mark in a poor conditions event last time, may well improve enough to get involved on the dirt. Master Of War ran ok on his first try on dirt when up with the pace early before just staying on at one pace up the rail, has been dropped to 100 which he won from on the Tapeta here last year (won at Abu Dhabi in a Conditions event in between of 98 on turf) so there is a chance that he could get involved although he does face some tough opponents here.
Not a race that I would be keen to have a bet in, Haatheq holds excellent claims while Tamarkuz still remains with potential with Empire Storm & Samurai Sword also holding claims.
The big race of the night is the Group 2 Al Fahidi Fort over 7f;
Not quite the field I had expected but decent enough, quite why much improved dirt performer Shaishee now switches back to turf for his first start on the green stuff since finishing 2nd in a Haydock maiden in 2013 is beyond me, he has looked at home on dirt & has plenty to prove here.
Barring any accidents Safety Check must hold outstanding claims of gaining his first Group race victory after an effortless win in a good quality handicap last time of a mark of 104 with Cam Hardie taking 3lbs off, yes this will demand more but it is far from the strongest Group 2 with many of his rivals having their first starts while he has already shown his well being.
No disrespect to Encipher but he just is not good enough, his last turf start was in 2013 at Abu Dhabi & he was well beaten even his useful dirt form leaves him with plenty to find. Modern History tried to make all in Safety Check's race last time before fading late on useful in his youth he will need others to run below par to win but certainly could scrape a place with his front running style an advantage.
Anaerobio won this last year after a win in the same handicap that Safety Check took this time around, he was then most notably involved in the team orders scandal when allowing Vercingetorix the perfect trouble free run up the inside. He usually needs a run to be cherry ripe but has to be respected.
Stablemate Zahee has plenty of ability but doesn't often consent to show it, he was well beaten on his dirt debut recently so at least will appreciate a return to the turf here.
The third MDK runner is perhaps the most interesting; Red Ray who is a quality South African sprinter he finished 2nd in Grade 1's at 5f & 6f on his last 2 starts in the early part of last season, he was also a close up 3rd in the Cape Guineas in late 2013 so has every chance of staying this 7f. In October 2013 he beat last year's South African Horse of the year Legislate quite comfortably so his form really stacks up. Anton Marcus retains the partnership & if he is ready to roll he could give Safety Check a run for his money.
Ertijaal has a namesake in South Africa that MDK thinks the world of & we will hopefully see at next year's Carnival but this year we have the ex Willie Haggas AW Championship finals winner who disappointingly showed very little afterwards, he has now been gelded & is still relatively lightly raced so there should be more to come as a 4yo & is not discounted.
Eastern Rules had a terrific Carnival last year winning twice on tapeta & turf, his 2 runs back in Ireland last year were good finishing laced in two Group races. Still progressive & well up to this grade, he should be involved from if he is fit enough from a stable whose runners ran promising races last week.
Decathlete switches back to the more suitable turf after running poorly on dirt behind Faulkner, didn't quite go on as expected last year but should make a 4yo & on his 2nd to subsequent French Guineas / Breeders Cup Mile winner Karakontie early last year he has to be respected.
Red Ray is fascinating but is likely to need this as is stablemate Anaerobio.
Eastern Rules is another with claims but again may need the run while Decathlete should appreciate the return to turf & can chase home Safety Check.
The first 12 furlong race of the Carnival is the last event on the card;
Last year's strong finishing 2nd Excellent Result heads the field, he went on to win to win twice at the Carnival including in Group 2 company. Returned to Europe his form was shocking & he needs to rediscover that early spark.
Jutland dug deep to grind out a win in the Jebel Ali Stakes last time on dirt, he reverts back to turf & has plenty to do to better his 5th placed finish from this mark in this same race last year.
Berling showed little promise on his recent dirt debut finishing a long last, his turf form is better but he is not up to this even if he consents to run his race.
Berling showed little promise on his recent dirt debut finishing a long last, his turf form is better but he is not up to this even if he consents to run his race.
Aussie Reigns is back again after another year of struggling from marks in & around the 100 barrier. He finished a good 2nd in a 10f turf handicap first time up last year & has been kept fresh for this since his last run at Salisbury. Not out of at least being in the shake up from that same mark of 102.
Elidor is another consistent top class handicapper who was an excellent 3rd in last season's Ebor from a mark of 99, has yet to win of a mark over 100 but is the type who could easily flourish in Dubai & is not discounted.
Eye In The Sky was up there with Duke Derby as one of the best 3yo of last season in Scandinavia despite showing little on his foray here last season, overall he looks a little high in the weights judged on Duke Derby's effort last week.
Ukrainian has appeared an improved performer on his last 2 starts winning them both in lesser company at Abu Dhabi, this is tougher & he will need more again.
Al Saham started last season in cracking form with good wins at Ascot & Windsor before finishing down the field in a Listed Handicap at York, he suffered a slight injury that day & has been saved for the Carnival, should have more to offer this season.
So Beautiful showed nothing again last week & can only be watched.
Fire Fighting as you would expect for a Mark Johnston inmate had a busy year in 2014 running no less than 18 times, a huge testament to his constitution that he was still in form as late as November last year when he ran in a trio of good quality AW races. Has had a month break & is back out again after shipping to Dubai like stablemate Sennockian Star last week he may well need this & is one to watch for later in the Carnival.
Earth Drummer runs for David O'Meara, he progressed last season from an opening mark of 88 to now race of 98, his improvement really hit top gear when he encountered Wolverhampton's Tapeta surface so he now must show that improvement back on turf in a quality handicap.
Full Combat hated the dirt on his return after looking extremely well in the paddock, MDK has already scored last Saturday with a horse who ran on dirt then reverted back to turf (Almoonqith) so he is not without hope if he lasts home as is stepping up from 7f to 12f here, the furthest he has ever raced is 9.5f so he has plenty to prove although I would say he has looked slow at shorter distances so he could easily improve for the dramatic step up in trip.
Inthar has been beaten a distance on his last few starts at Abu Dhabi most recently behind Ukrainian, his mark looks a real problem here.
Saxo Jack had 3 very disappointing runs back in the UK last year after 3 excellent runs here including a win in a good quality 10f handicap of a mark of 100, he returns now of 97 so there is no doubt he is well handicapped. He has every hope of staying the 12f as his dam is a Sadler's Wells mare although the majority of the pedigree does scream milers to 7f animals so he is already the exception having won at 1m2f 3 times already in his career, big player.
Plenty in with chances including Al Saham & Elidor but preference is for Saxo Jack (NAP) from a tempting mark.
@fttfracing
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