Hello & welcome along to the blog which returns after a week off last week which I do apologise about to all my loyal readers, time was not my friend last week as the business had an unexpected surge which is always welcome.
The Carnival is nearing a close now with a big double header this week on Thursday & Saturday building up to the climax at the end of March. Overall I would have to say it has once more been a resounding success although the dirt is an acquired taste but I am sure come World Cup Night we will be treated to some brilliant action with the Americans coming over in force.
Perhaps Race 1 on Thursday shows the true lack of appeal that the dirt surface has as just 6 runners go to post over the turning 6f.
The classy Rafeej heads the weights after a relatively disappointing effort upped in Grade last time out perhaps the break of a near 2 months was to blame as he had previously been impressive in Listed company. Back in handicap grade he has to be respected especially as he has already won in this surface.
Ninjago is a hugely surprising runner on the dirt considering there is a 6f race on Saturday on turf which would have suited him better, he followed in the hoofprints of his fellow stablemates with a hugely disappointing effort when favourite here a few weeks ago, cannot be fancied trying dirt for the first time with little evidence in his pedigree that he will appreciate it.
Over The Ocean has been handed an excellent opportunity of gaining a win at the Carnival back on his preferred surface, a confirmed front runner who has some decent form to his name in Scandinavia he has already shown the ability to act on this Meydan track with a good effort when not fully wound up on his first run when he stayed on for a 4th in a similar race a month ago. He wasn't sighted on Turf last time which was no real surprise in a good quality race but has to be respected in this event.
Nawwaar formerly a useful handicapper for John Dunlop a few years has become a Abu Dhabi specialist since being transferred to the UAE with 3 wins there, despite a US pedigree his best form has come on Turf at trips further than this. Recent form is just ok & has plenty to find.
Price Is Truth skyrocketed in the weights in the domestic season & has come unstuck dramatically on his last 2 starts including in a similar race last time.
Strategical quickly rattled up a hat trick last season in small races before struggling raised in grade, should be fine on the dirt but like any horse who has run on this surface so far you would have preferred if he had experience in race conditions.
The lack of runners os annoying but I am convinced Over The Ocean can win in Dubai & this has to be his very best chance.
Race 2 is a non Carnival event which I will be leaving well alone as anything could win.
The final fillies Classic of the UAE season is up next, as with the preceding 3yo fillies events it lacks numbers & unfortunately is all about the same Godolphin fillies as the Guineas Trial & the Guineas itself.
Local Time is unbeaten in both her starts so far, she was more impressive last time suggesting that the extra distance should prove no bother to here & she can complete the hat trick here.
Good Place is entitled to get closer at this distance although her real problem is that she is a slow starter.
Yodelling blew up last time but had appeared to be struggling on the dirt before fitness told.
Shahrasal who ran above herself in the Guineas gets the chance to be number one in the Oaks but despite the distance being in her favour she is readily passed over.
Runner Runner has bee outclassed both times & faces an uphill battle as does Icecapada.
Local Time will win again but I wouldn't have a bet.
The Championship for the colts on grass comes up next with the Meydan Classic;
Quarterback is a decent stamp of a horse who brought a decent reputation into the trial last time, he duly ran very well with a staying on 4th, he will have come on for that & can get closer this time.
Pasticcio is outclassed.
Surewecan was never involved last time but has the potential to improve witht that run behind him & the assistance of Kieran Fallon a plus, outsider who has place claims. Intensar is below what's required in this type of race.
Tannaaf made a decent impression when winning his maiden at Newmarket last summer beating several subsequent winners, he reappeared in one of the sales races but appeared to lack the pace of his speedier bred rivals that day. He is bred to make a 3yo & is an interesting contender although the trip may now be short enough.
Tashbeeh represents David Hayes Australian stable, he was an impressive winner last time out at Flemington in a decent handicap showing an excellent turn of foot to come with a late run, a gorgeous stamp of a horse who needs respecting with owners Number 1 jockey taking over. (see video at 1.42)
Volatile ran much better than I expected at this trip last time staying on late to nearly catch the winner, player if he turns up in the same form.
Toscanelli had looked exposed as below this class in Ireland last season but ran well on his UAE debut last time in the trial, entitled to come on for that & has place chances again.
Good Contact is a well put together colt who ran well in small field conditions events in the UK last season lastly behind Christophermarlowe who is an interesting outsider for the Derby, sure to ready to roll & is a contender.
Mastermind was given a fine ride from the front by Hanagan last time in the Trial to will nicely, fully entitled to go well again although it must be significant that Hanagan now switches to Tashbeeh.
Wychwood Warrior was disappointing in the trial after showing progressive form in Ireland, perhaps he needed that run & if that is the case he can be given a place chance at the very least.
Tashbeeh (NAP) created a very favourable impression last time & I would be quite keen on him here.
Race 5 is another dirt event that has attracted a small field of 8 runners over the 7f;
Pazolini is a lightly raced ex Godolphin US animal who has won his last 4 starts in Allowance company over 6f & 7f, he has shown good speed to make all & clearly has more improvement in him, has to be respected in this race.
Boomshackerlacker has acquitted himself really well in his 3 dirt starts so far showing up well for a long way before fading to 4th on his last 2 starts, certainly has a place chance here.
Colmar Kid has been beaten out of start on 3 of his last 4 starts, he usually saves his best for Jebel Ali & has plenty to do here.
Encipher is more than capable of winning on dirt but will always find at least one or two that are better handicapped than him given his run style.
Completing the lineup are all owned by Sheikh Hamdan;
Shaishee is a much improved animal on dirt this season & appeared unlucky last time at 6f in a Group 3 here never getting a run when he needed the gaps to appear, best on the speed like so many in this race he deserves another win & has to have a decent chance.
Easy last time out winner Muaanid has been quite leniently treated on the back on that front running win, he looked a horse on the up last time & has to have a cracking chance of doubling up.
Mashaaref has been kept busy in recent weeks running competitively enough mainly on turf at Meydan & Abu Dhabi, he did win a couple of starts back at a Non Carnival meeting. Has winning form at Jebel on dirt but has been well beaten here on his 2 tries & looks high enough.
Old Tammathul completes the 4 runners for Sheikh Hamdan, he has shown very little on his last half dozen starts & didn't look a natural on his only try on this new surface.
The Hamdan pair Muaanid & Shaishee would have this race between them with Pazolini a hugely interesting contender as well, couldn't split them to have a bet though.
The big race of the night is the Group 2 Zabeel Mile;
Former Andre Fabre Group winning juvenile Earnshaw makes his debut for Salem Bin Ghadayer who for me personally I feel has been disappointing given the quality of horse he has been given to train he has so far only had the 3 winners. Earnshaw started of his 3yo campaign as one of the fancied colts for the French Classics but after a couple of solid runs he was ultimately a bitter disappointment in the French Derby & was beaten at short odds in a small Listed event at the back end of last season. Perhaps he was not strong enough to compete at that level last season & is entitled to be given another chance as a 4yo but he does face some in form rivals here.
Chief among those in form rivals is the tough as teak Dark Emerald who bolted up in a handicap last week, he has done nothing but improve in the UAE & is a credit to his small team, this trip is right up his street & he has every chance of gaining his first Group success or at the very least gaining some black type.
Outstrip unsurprisingly switches back to turf after hating the dirt last time, he is a complete enigma who has all the ability in the world but has failed to show it on more than one occasion now & needs everything to drop right.
Anaerobio was well put in his place behind Dark Emerald last week, he is now 6lbs better off for a near 4 length beating so really should be turning that around but for me the major worry is the trip as despite winning over 10 furlongs as a young horse in Argentina all his very best UAE form has come at 7f.
The ever impressive Safety Check steps back into action after a ready win in the Al Fahidi Fort just over a month ago, this step up in trip is no concern as he won over the mile as a juvenile & if he is the same form he must take a world of beating once more.
Emirate's Girl is a former Argentine Group 1 winner as a 2yo & won in Grade 2 company in February last year, she has had one start for her new stable on Arc weekend last year when she was extremely disappointing, she can only be watched here.
Empire Storm has performed with great credit behind the hugely impressive Tamarkuz on dirt the last twice, he switches back to Turf here, he is useful but probably not quite this class although a place is not out of the question.
Johann Strauss always had a big if undeserved reputation when at Ballydoyle after all as a maiden he finished 2nd in a Racing Post Trophy but then took another 3 starts to break his maiden. You can read little into his 4th to Kingman afterwards in the Irish Guineas as he was ridden to achieve the best possible placing that day. He made his debut in the UAE & for MDK at Abu Dhabi last time in the President's Cup when a fast finishing 2nd behind Ertijaal, that form leaves him with plenty to find in this company though as Eritjaal had previously been well put in his place by both Dark Emerald & Safety Check.
Short Squeeze steps into Group company after an agonising defeat in handicap company here last time when meeting plenty of trouble in running caused mainly by his slow start, he has plenty of ability but clearly also has plenty of attitude as his slightly ungainly way of go about his business during a race shows. He will need a really strong pace to aim at which appears unlikely also so far he is 0/3 in pattern company.
Rostrum was formerly a useful animal in his younger days but has shown little on his last few starts, outclassed.
Darwin showed very little back on dirt last time, he switches back to turf here but again the same question remains does he really stay the mile? So far he has just a small race win at this trip at Naas when he was far superior to his rivals, on his last 4 starts at the trip he has been beaten, he did finish 3rd in the Sussex last season but he was allowed to dictate his own pace which was the only reason he got so close at the trip.
Safety Check should take all the beating once more but you could not rule out Dark Emerald who is thriving at present. Will most likely watch rather than bet.
The closing event on Thursday is a 1m2f Turf handicap;
Old Mushreq appears to be badly regressing at present & can only be watched.
Ayahuasca is a former multiple Chilean Graded winner at trips varying between 9f to 1m5f, he has not raced since September last year & given he has joined an out of form stable he can only be watched.
Francis Of Assisi is a rare Godolphin acquisition from Ballydoyle, he ran just the once last season appearing on the same race he won as a 3yo the Knockaire Stakes over at Leopardstown, he ran well finishing a good 2nd but now steps up a full 3 furlongs in trip for the first time in his career, so far he has not looked a stayer & is a bizarre runner for me.
Flying The Flag is another ex Ballydoyle operator now plying his trade for MDK, he is a Group 3 winner at this trip 2 years ago & ran with some promise here a few weeks ago, interesting to see how he progresses as he has a chance if he comes on for that first outing.
Start Right is formerly a very useful if temperamental handicapper who ran some excellent races here last season & started back with a useful 4th behind Limario last time, not unfeasibly handicapped with young Marc Monaghan taking 6lbs off but you must remember he just does not win often enough to warrant backing.
Tha'ir bounced back from a rare poor effort on dirt first time up to win readily on turf in a similar race last time, he has been an excellent little horse for Godolphin & is more than capable of winning again.
Belgian Bill has now strung to races together for the first time in a long time with a good 3rd behind Tha'ir last time out, clearly has to be respected once more but given his run style will always need things to fall in his lap.
Berling ran an almighty race to split Tha'ir & Belgian Bill last time, given his overall profile he cannot be relied upon to perform that well again though.
Eye In The Sky has been performing with credit finishing 4th on his last 2 starts, drop back in trip could be in his favour & the booking of Soumillon takes the eye.
There was enough in Validus's last run to suggest that he could well win a race again after his long layoff, step up in trip should really pose no problem & is certainly interesting for his in form yard.
Van Rooney was well beaten on dirt last week & does not stay this far anyway.
Aussie Reigns has been pretty disappointing on his last 2 starts which is a concern for a horse that has always run his race in the past, perhaps finally the amount of races he has competed in over the last few years has caught up with him but on the other hand he has slowly being dropped again, he was 2nd from this mark at Salisbury late last season & was also 2nd of 102 in a 10f handicap here first time up last year so there is some cause for optimism as this has always looked his best trip & it would be no surprise should Kieran Fallon get a good tune out of him.
Tha'ir must go well again but slight preference is for Validus (NB) who still has more to offer, Aussie Reigns could well hit the frame at a price.
@fttfracing
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