Good evening & welcome along to a very quick blog looking at Meydan's card for Saturday. Those regular readers & in fact all who check in on my musings thanks for sticking by what has been a less productive Carnival so far but I am confident that can change here with one of my bets of the whole Carnival running.
Opening up the card is a small field dirt handicap over the mile, my old friend Avon Pearl tries the Meydan dirt for the first time, he should be fine on the surface as a Group level dirt winner in Scandinavia but the slight doubt is his run style of being held up on a surface that has so far suited all out front runners, either way he is overpriced in a field of nearly horses.
Our Channel has some potential in his pedigree for dirt but as the only front runner in the field he has a chance on that aspect alone.
Tinghir was an improver last year for David Lanigan & has some hopes on the dams side although Dansili would not normally be a go to sire for dirt.
Nolohay will still surely find the distance too short with the surface an issue.
El Estreunedoso is a rogue while Ocean Tempest will struggle.
Zain Shamardal is perhaps another who has a much more solid chance as he is fine on the surface & could go well for his local trainer.
Will chance Avon Pearl once more.
I will miss the non Carnival event as usual so straight to Race 3 the 7f Dirt handicap;
Music Theory tries dirt for the first time after a lacklustre run on the turf last time, he is not hopeless, his sire Acclamation has already had Emirates Flyer run well enough on the surface earlier in the Carnival & his stock tend to go well with cut which lends more hope to him handling the dirt.
High Blade started his career late in Uruguay but was unbeaten in 5 starts before coming unstuck on his last start, sure to ring rusty after another layoff.
You can put a line through Bannock, Ennobled Friend & Silver Ocean,
Giftorm has a win in him but is always vulnerable to a horse with a slightly better turn of foot at this trip otherwise a solid contender.
Royal Ridge has got ability but for me does not always show it, would be a surprise winner in my eyes.
Yaa Wayl is not hopeless from this mark given he has won at Jebel Ali before with his stable in better form.
Heavy Metal has mixed messages in his pedigree & is a missed horse overall.
Sir Freddie has the trip as an issue but he can break well.
Filfil steps up into Carnival company & must hold strong claims given his recent form & ability to handle the surface.
Jayed Jidan caused a surprise in the Jebel Ali Mile Prep when making all to win at 25/1 but he backed that up with 2 solid runs since including here on Turf & in the Jebel Ali Mile itself, back in a handicap from a decent mark he must go well.
Tiz Now Tiz Then holds solid claims but may well find a couple too good at the finish.
Giftorm holds strong claims & Music Theory could easily take to dirt but at decent odds both Jayed Jidan & Yaa Wayl appeal each way in an open race.
On now to Race 4 & one of my bets of the whole Carnival in the 6f Turf handicap;
Jamesie is the horse in question a much improved performer at the Carnival last year on Tapeta winning a Group 3 at this trip. He has had 2 runs at 5f so far this time around finishing just in behind on his return & rattling home late last time with the promise of more to come, the step up is perfect for him & I firmly believe he can prove to good for his rivals.
The horse that follow is another Irish raider in Russian Soul who also enjoyed a fine Carnival last time around but has on both dirt starts this time around, turf will help as will Marc Monaghan's claim.
Zahee is unpredictable, while Sir Maximilian has been disappointing so far & remains high in the weights, trip is also a worry as best form is at 5f.
Medicean Man looks too high in the weights at the ripe old age of 9.
Eastern Rules a stablemate of Russian Soul's has struggled so far this year & drops back in trip here, may well be taken off his feet but will finish.
Fils Anges looked unlucky last time & remains in good form although his rider Adrie De Vries is a confirmed rial rider so he was never going to be put anywhere else last time & will be a hostage to fortune once more.
Ertijaal managed to win a lesser race at Abu Dhabi last time, he has been beaten by several of these already & he may be hard to place.
Master Of War is consistent & is a solid place contender.
Professor ran one of his best races at this trip last year in the Wokingham so he is not hopeless although he has shown little in 2 starts.
Fountain Of Youth has struggled so far & will again here.
Jallota ran well on his first start, he should improve for that & could run into a place.
Jamesie wins.
Race 5 is all about Footbridge a Graded performer in the US who ran close up behind Shared Belief on one start last year, he has reportedly settled in well & could easily outclass these. One word of caution a fellow ex Godolphin US horse Romansh has so far failed to set the Carnival alight although he had excuses on his first run.
Saint Baudolino is a fascinating contender on his return to the track after 619 days off, he was a very useful 3yo for Andre Fabre who has not been since injuring himself at Royal Ascot in 2013, he has plenty of hope for dirt through his sire Pivotal & his grandsire Sunday Silence was a top class US dirt performer.
Tenor will be outclassed on this surface, Emirates Flyer has always surprised me & handles the surface just the distance is a worry.
Farrier has run respectable on dirt but has never faced horses of the class of the Godolphin runners.
Without Fear has no hope.
Henry Clay has been a revelation this year but this is tougher.
Duke Derby is worth another chance on his favoured surface at this distance, could run into a place.
No bet race.
The big race of the night is for the stayers on Turf, the Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 3;
Godolphin have a great record in this having won all 4 previous runnings of this & overall they win the majority of the staying races run throughout the Carnival.
Last years winner Cavalryman is an obvious place to start he enjoyed perhaps the best campaign of his entire career in England last year winning the Princess Of Wale's & The Goodwood Cup. At the age of 9 he will not be getting any better but he may well not need to be.
Ahzeemah ran a cracker back in a handicap on his return & pushed Cavalryman all the way in the Goodwood Cup, he won this race on 2013 & looks sure to be involved.
The 3rd Godolphin runner is Excellent Result who bypassed this race last year after winning the trial well to win the City Of Gold, he was not himself in Europe but has run with plenty of credit in slowly run races so far this year, well worth another go in this company & is overpriced.
Meandre ran well finishing 3rd in the trial but he still rates an unlikely winner. Almoonqith keeps stepping up in trip, he has potential to stay & could well run into a place.
Indiana Jones showed nothing on dirt but at least this trip is more suitable, still has plenty to do overall.
Fire Fighting is well worth a crack at this trip, he was inconvenienced by racing to far back last time & rates a better chance in this then at first glance.
Star Empire has disappointed on his last 2 starts & it looks as though age is catching up with him.
There was plenty to like about Rio Tigre's first effort in the trial he looked in need of the run & ran like that at the finish, he will improve & is of more interest this time around.
Havana Beat is a useful UK stayer who has not been seen since finishing 3rd in the American St Leger, should be ready but has plenty to prove here.
Layali Al Andalus ran pretty well in the trial at a trip he has never experienced but is vulnerable to the better animals.
Godolphin hold the key & at the odds I prefer Excellent Result who was a winner at this trip last season. Rio Tigre also has potential to get involved but I would imagine Ahzeemah can give the selection most to do, Cavalryman is the class but is getting no younger.
Closing the card is a 1m2f handicap on Turf;
Mujaarib has so far failed to find the form of last year's Group 2 win here but has been given a slight chance by the handicapper, needs to show more though.
Bank Of Burden is as usual outclassed.
Haafaguinea was hugely disappointing last time & appears held by the handicapper now. Elleval keeps running his race but has kept finding a couple too good for him but this does look the best opportunity he will have of winning again & could well cap a memorable night for the Lavelle's.
Atomic Rush had is last start in a Grade 1 in South Africa behind Horse of the year Legislate last May when 100/1, he was 5th in the SA Derby previous to that. Could prove nicely handicapped but will most likely need it.
Zambucca has never progressed in any of his runs & switches back to turf here, likely to out of his depth once again.
Sennockian Star has so far showed nothing in 3 starts & is passed over.
Jawhar steps back up in trip after running well enough at trips around the mile, chances with stable in flying form.
Ottoman Empire is starting to get well handicapped but overall his best form is on Tapeta.
Soviet Rock looked to be a useful handicapper early last season in the UK but failed to progress, he changed hands for big money & could be interested first time out.
Silent Bullet ran well enough showing hitherto unknown stamina at this trip last time so he is respected with his stable in top form.
Snow Squall hacked up in a small race at Abu Dhabi last time, he is higher in the weights now & will need more.
Not a race I intend to have a bet in but I do hope Elleval wins for the Lavelle's.
@fttfracing
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