Hello & welcome along to all my readers, I hope you had a profitable weekend which I hope was kicked off by What About Carlo on Friday at Sandown who I advised the day before at cracking odds of 16/1. I have long been a fan of the horse & he did not disappoint winning what looked a competitive handicap with ease. I believe he won despite any ease in the going (having walked part of the course before racing there were more good patches than soft anyway) which deteriorated throughout the afternoon, Carlo benefited from racing in the first race before the ground changed. He is likely to head to The German 2000 Guineas which looks a viable play either way I expect him to be winning Group races before the season is out.
The focus of this blog is Ascot's first Flat meeting of the year with the highlight being The Sagaro Stakes which sees the aspiring Gold Cup candidates enter the fray.
This year's renewal has attracted just the 7 runners & I doubt that the Gold Cup winner will be seen on Wednesday unlike last year when Estimate kicked off what would be a fairytale campaign by winning decisively.
Heading the field on Wednesday is the horse that gave Estimate most to do in the Gold Cup;
Simenon who has progressed since being in the care of Willie Mullins, this is by far his easiest task since he ran in the Lonsdale at York last year in which he was beaten, since then he has travelled the world acquitting himself with distinction in the Melbourne Cup finishing an honourable 4th but on his last 4 starts he has been beaten by wide margins & on at least two of those occasions he has been over faced (Japan Cup & Hong Kong Vase), on his last start he was last in the Dubai Gold Cup. The horse has not won since his Royal Ascot double in 2012 & I wonder whether he has forgotten how to so I would oppose him on Wednesday.
Tac De Boistron heads the weights courtesy of his easy win in last seasons Prix Royal Oak Group 1, he faces no easy task on Wednesday giving weight on his first start which he has always needed so far in his career however the ground is in his favour & on ratings he is better than the opposition so class could see him home.
In the Prix Royal Oak TDB easily brushed aside the excellent dual purpose mare Missunited who re-opposes, in the mares favour is the pull in the weights, she was receiving 4lbs from TDB in The Royal Oak but is in receipt of 10lbs on Wednesday & she has had a run this season. She had a fabulous 2013 winning a Galway Hurdle, a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle & a Listed race on the level back at her beloved Galway.
Harris Tweed was in fine form last backend bounding to 2 Goodwood wins before only going down by a nose in The Long Distance Cup on Champions Day over course & distance. It was his first try at 2 miles so is a relative newcomer to the staying division at the age of 7 so is still open to improvement at the discipline. A genuine front runner who if allowed an easy time could get away from them on his favoured soft ground.
Oriental Fox showed improved form when stepped up to extreme distances at the end of last season winning The Cesarewitch Trial before finishing a decent 6th in the main event a few weeks later. He was beaten miles by Harris Tweed last July so has it all to do with him as he does on ratings although its not out of question that a Mark Johnston stayer could find the necessary improvement to be involved.
Earth Amber was well beaten in this race last year after finishing a good 2nd at Nottingham in The Further Flight Stakes, once again this year she excelled herself in the Nottingham contest so I would imagine the same fate awaits her here.
The field is completed by another filly in the shape of David Elsworth's Cocktail Queen who ran 6th on her seasonal debut in The John Porter, I would be slightly concerned about her stamina let alone her being good enough.
This looks Harris Tweed's 2/1 best chance of adding to his sole victory at Group level so will take him to beat Oriental Fox & Tac De Boistron.
The card opens up with a 5f 2 year old conditions event which has attracted just the 4 runners. The race was won last year by Anticipated for Hannon & Hughes, this year they are represented by Magical Roundabout who also won a Windsor maiden like last year's winner (week earlier than Anticipated's win), the soft ground should be fine for him.
Absent Friends has run twice so far winning at Southwell before being easily brushed aside by what most judges are saying the best juvenile seen out so far Mind Of Madness at Newmarket, he should handle the ground fine.
Escalating ran in the Brocklesby & has been out since winning well at Kempton, I'm not sure on the ground for him. Kibaar ran in what is usually a decent Newbury maiden jumping alertly to show good speed for most of the race before fading badly late on, he should come on a bundle for that & on ground that should be fine he could surprise.
No bet for me.
The Pavillion Stakes Listed gives 3yo sprinters there chance at a win in pattern company in what is usually a difficult season for horses rated between 95 - 105.
Last year saw the Hannon team win with Ninjago & they are once again represented by Expert & The Queen's Musical Comedy;
Expert is fairly exposed & has had 2 runs this year, he was well beaten in 2nd in a handicap at the Craven meeting by a well handicapped rival but did pull clear of the remainder. He has a useful win on soft to his name so he is respected. Musical Comedy ended last season in great form winning 2 nurseries on soft ground, with stable jockey Hughes choosing Expert perhaps Musical Comedy will need this.
Mick's Yer Man was behind Expert at Newmarket & I cannot see why that form should be turned around. Rufford's best run last season came behind stablemate Supplicant in the Mill Reef on soft so he is slightly interesting although I would suspect he will be needing this.
Speedfiend hardly had to break sweat when winning his maiden on the AWT at Kempton beating just 1 rival, he excelled himself on his last start as a 2 year old finishing 4th in the Middle Park, he looks harshly judged on that & is not one for me.
Danehill Revival made a hugely encouraging debut at Pontefract a few weeks ago winning her maiden by 6 lengths on soft ground, she is unexposed & will no doubt be short in the market ahead of her pattern debut. One Chance's best run last year by far was an excellent 3rd in The Queen Mary at The Royal Meeting, she has had a run already this season showing good early speed in the 6f sales race at the Craven Meeting before tiring late on, if she handles the ground she is one to look out for on Wednesday.
Wouldn't be my type of race to have a bet in.
A mile 3yo fillies race follows which sees the return of Godolphin's Kind Invitation who I know from my sources in the camp is very well thought of, she won her Kempton maiden nicely on debut nothing flash but quite taking. She needed all of the 1 mile trip, soft ground should be no issue for her & neither should fitness.
Recent Newbury scorer Evita Peron steps out once more, she only just got up in the dying strides to beat a 100/1 shot so the form is very suspect, (Ski Lift who was fast finishing 4th showed nothing at the weekend while Perfect Blessings who was 3rd Won on Saturday night), she needed all of the 1 mile for me & I am surprised she hasn't stepped up to beyond a mile. Bright Cecily won an average Salisbury maiden last year & will need to step up to be winning this. Stosur is exposed & will struggle to give away weight. Adhwaa brings the best form to the table with a 2nd in Listed company behind Majeyda (3rd Nell Gwyn) & another Godolphin filly Feedyah here at Ascot when she was only just caught, I doubt she has that much improvement this year though. Lustrous was easily beaten in Group company twice last year, this is more realistic but I still believe she will struggle. Pretty Flamingo has a lot on her plate but does go on the ground, Rasheeda looks outclassed on her form so far. Solar Magic made an encouraging debut at Newmarket's Craven meeting staying on powerfully over 7f, the step up will suit as will the ground & she is respected.
Kind Invitation 15/2 to maintain her unbeaten record.
The Listed Bet365 Paradise has attracted a reasonable field of 10 runners, last year's winner Fencing is back again, he won well last year & you hoped that he would go on to fulfil his potential but he really hasn't, he has been beaten twice this year by Graphic (re opposes on 3lbs better terms for a neck defeat) & in the Earl Of Sefton when looking ungainly up the home straight. I don't think the soft ground suits him perfectly & I will be opposing him on Wednesday.
Graphic who finished a neck in front of Fencing at Doncaster now has to give 3lbs to that rival, he should confirm that as he is more consistent & has risen from 86 to 110 in the last year, a tough horse who never knows when he is beaten.
Sirius Prospect is a pretty useful horse who has done his connections proud over the years & is now regularly contesting minor pattern company over 1 mile, I think he may struggle to give 3 lbs to some decent rivals.
Baltic Knight has not been seen since disappointing in the Celebration Mile last year before that shocking run he had been a progressive individual who handles cut in the ground, He is already a Listed winner who is unpenalised & if ready to rock'n'roll must be a live contender.
Boomshackerlacker is a different horse on soft or heavy ground, he has been placed in minor pattern company on the continent & was 2nd to old Penitent on soft last year. He is a place contender at least.
French Navy comes out at the weights the best horse & now given his favoured conditions is the one they all have to beat after an excellent run on good ground at Newmarket recently.
Levitate is a top handicapper & the jump to pattern class is not that far but this unfortunately is an above average Listed race so he is passed over as is Mister Music.
Ocean Tempest this year's Lincoln winner has already had his form franked massively with Tullius's win in last Friday's Bet365 Mile at Sandown, he has since run with credit in The Spring Mile at Newbury, he is well worth a go up in grade.
Race And Status returns to the track after a long spell on the sidelines, he was well thought of at 2 & 3 but will surely be in need of this return especially on soft ground.
Strongly fancy French Navy 3/1 on his favoured ground.
The last race on the card is the biggest field of the day as 13 handicappers face the starter, Russian Realm a son of 1000 Guineas winner Russian Rhythm will no doubt dominate the market, he is lightly raced & unexposed so he surely must be exploiting his lenient mark of 85 sooner rather than later. Ground should be fine & his stable has been having winners, what's not to like?
Well maybe its the opposition;
He faces up to an old horse in good form & one who has his favoured ground the top weight Myboyalfie, who won at Warwick last week, giving weight to Russian Realm will be tough but he is a tough horse. Noble Gift is another who could improve as a 4 year old, he showed decent form last year & goes on the ground.
Other 4 year olds to note are Evident & Sword Of The Lord who have lots of scope from their marks. Another old boy to mention is the Roger Teal trained The Tichborne who has always been well regarded & goes well on soft on the Turf & has one piece of standout Ascot form when finishing 3rd in The Britannia at 100/1 in 2011.
No bet race for me.
@fttfracing
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