2000 Guineas Newmarket Saturday 03/05/2014

The first Classic of the 2014 Flat season has attracted a decent sized field with Kingman strong at the head of the market after his demolition in The Greenham at Newbury. With the Guineas just a day or so away the likelihood of genuine fast ground is more than a possibility which has been a concern of his master trainer, he even went so far as stating that Kingman would not run if it was deemed too fast. 
Would he really miss a Guineas though? I doubt it but you could easily see him drift on the day if firm appears in the going description. 
(That does look unlikely now as rain has been in the the Newmarket area today, the last 2 furlongs are now good ground at present so with a few more drops of rain genuine good ground now looks likely) 

I was at Newbury when he won The Greenham & you couldn't really be anything other than impressed but I was one of the few sceptics after the race, everything just went perfect for him with some of his chief rivals running below par, he had the perfect rail run & easy fractions which benefited an instant quickneer like him. The other reason why I am unsure of him is his physique he hasn't grown much from 2 - 3 & I just wonder if he can be as good as he was in The Greenham again, he's yet to be in a battle which is another issue I have, (of course he could easily be that good that he never has to be in a battle) he doesn't appeal as the type who will lay down everything for you in a tough finish. 
I harbour doubts on breeding that he will be truly effective in top company at a mile due to his cruising speed & makeup, he appeals more as a sprinter - 7f animal. His sire Invincible Spirit's progeny that stay a mile & beyond are from staying Dams / Grandsires, whereas his dam Zenda is by Zamindar who got no further than 6f at his best (Zamindar does get staying animals but only when crossed with staying mares), Zenda did win a weak French 1000 Guineas but the mile is less taxing at Longchamp than at Newmarket & she never won at that distance again, she has produced a handful of foals to date with the best until Kingman being Remote who has won at 10 furlongs but he is by Dansili who has a much stouter pedigree than Invincible Spirit.
 However I could just be completely wrong but then its all about opinions.

The horse who Kingman replaced as hot favourite after the Greenham was Australia who Aidan O'Brien claimed was 'the best Ballydoyle had ever had'.....oh dear where have we heard that before?
He is of course bred to be a king by Dual Derby, King George winner & Champion Sire Galileo out of the super mare Ouija Board. 
So far in his 3 race career he has beaten 6 individual winners with ratings varying between 66 - 99 which is not encouraging. He looked green on his debut when he finished 2nd to a horse (Renaissance Art) who has not been seen since, he won fairly comfortably next time up beating 3 horses that have yet to win & the 5th took 5 starts to get off the mark in a lowly maiden at Gowran Park on Tuesday. 

It was his next start that propelled him on the road to stardom, a 4 runner Group 3 at Leopardstown when he wasn't even favourite to beat what was then supposed to be the next superstar of Irish Racing Free Eagle, Australia took Free Eagle apart settling in behind his stablemate Kingfisher & the favourite, he travelled nicely before being asked for his effort in the straight where he quickened away showing a hitherto unknown turn of foot to leave Free Eagle in his dust. It was impressive no doubt about that but we don't really know what he beat Free Eagle & Wexford Town have gone missing, while the 3rd Kingfisher was stuffed by Berkshire last year & was easily brushed aside first time up this year by Fascinating Rock the other concern is that he was not seen again which is unusual for Aidan's best 2 year old.  Rumours have of course circled in the build up but it looks like Australia is coming, his half brother now called Our Voodoo Prince (Voodoo Prince) has recently won a 10f Group 3 in Australia but before that the horse Australia had stood head & shoulders above the other progeny of Ouija Board, he is bred for much further so I just genuinely wonder if he will find the mile sharp in top company as a 3 year old first time out.

Toormore last year's Champion Juvenile off a low 122 has already flexed his muscles this term winning the Craven in workmanlike fashion, The Grey Gatsby bustled him up for a furlong on or too. He is a decent looking individual without being spectacular & is still unbeaten but one suspects there are better horses than him in this race, he has never appealed to me as a Classic winner.

Kingston Hill is another unbeaten colt in this years renewal, he progressed from a Newbury maiden win on soft ground to a weak Group 3 at Newmarket on ground that was edging towards soft before running out a ready winner on bad ground of The Racing Post Trophy Group 1. Its harsh to label him a soft ground animal as he has yet to race on anything else but he just looks like a horse that appreciates it & he has a high knee action suggesting that he will always be better with cut. He's not going to get that on Saturday, I can't have him on form anyway his Group 3 win is poor judging by the 3rd Truth Or Dare's exploits so far & well The Racing Post Trophy is so far looking terrible as Johann Strauss is now a 5 race maiden, Dolce N'Karama has been stuffed in Dubai, Buonarotti was easily beaten at Leopardstown last month & Somewhat was very disappointing on his first start back. The Grey Gatsby & Snow Sky are the only 2 so far to come out & run well.  
   
War Command could easily be the O'Brien forgotten horse lest we forget he won a Coventry in devastating fashion last season after winning a 7f maiden propelling him to the new wonder horse status, of course he was beaten next time & the Coventry has not worked out. Surdiman who beat him was then turned over by Toormore easily & by Astaire in The Middle Park. War Command though came back out to win a Group 2 under a penalty & then won what looked a weak Dewhurst quite comfortably in the end, while checking through my online betting accounts the other day I came across an active bet War Command 40/1 2000 Guineas 2014 after his maiden win. An unexpected find but I do remember being very impressed by his maiden win, this looks to more his target than his better fancied stablemate so a massive run would not surprise.

We have raiders from Ireland, France & of course for the first time Spain a country not really known for producing top class horses with the exception being the top class sprinter Equiano.

Our Gaelic colleagues have brought over 2 runners who finished 1st & 4th in their most recognised Guineas trial The Prix Djebel which has produced 2 winners of the Newmarket Classic Makfi in 2010 & Pennekamp in 1995, French Fifteen won the Djebel in 2012 & finished a close 2nd at Newmarket. 

Overall that is a pretty average record but on the positive side the French usually only come over when they really fancy one so this year's winner Charm Spirit merits some respect, as a 2 year old he finished 3rd in The Jean Luc Lagardere when looking leaden legged on the soft ground a place behind the Spanish raider Noonzhoh Canarias. He was impressive in The Djebel (see video below) clearly appreciating the better ground, the mile is within easy reach so he looks overpriced at present compared to some of his rivals. 

Fourth to Charm Spirit in The Djebel was Bookrunner who represents Makfi's trainer the excellent Mikel Delzangles, he is completely unexposed after just 2 runs, a win on debut last November on the polytrack at Chantilly over an extended mile but it is worth bearing in mind that he had a feather weight that day of 7-13 & a young apprentices 8lb claim. He then broke smartly on his 3yo debut in The Djebel before fading as if fitness had beaten him to finish 4th, he is by Dual American HOTY Tiznow so the faster surface at Newmarket will suit but surely its asking too much to see him involved on Saturday.

So to the history maker Noozhoh Canarias who comes from sunny Spain to play at Flat racing's HQ, unbeaten at La Zarzuela in Madrid over trips up to 7f he also won an average 6f Listed race at a tiny French provincial track (La Teste Da Buch) in the Aquitaine region of Bordeaux, he beat one horse of note that day (Silai who went on to win another minor Listed race at another small provincial track Craon in North-Western France), after that he appeared in the Group 1 Prix Jean Luc Lagardere on Arc day & ran a storming race making all before just failing to last the 7f on soft ground as Karakontie caught him inside the final furlong. NC has had one run so far this season back at his beloved La Zarzuela where he easily accounted for inferior rivals over 7f on apparent soft ground, clearly he is the best horse in Spain but does that coupled with a 2nd in a Group 1 race on Arc day make him a Guineas contender? 

No is my answer, his Spanish form is the equivalent of low grade handicaps in UK, his French Listed win is no more than a very minor Conditions race & his Lagardere run was of a horse with bundles of speed who burnt of the majority of his rivals but did not stay at the end, that for me is the major doubt stamina on the stiff Rowley Mile he has too much toe to last home for me. Fair play of course for connections in having a go but I can see nothing but a down the field finish for him against the quality of opposition he faces on Saturday.

Godolphin's small but powerful grey colt Outstrip seems to have been completely forgotten in the build up to the Guineas yet his form is some of the best around if not the best, on debut he beat stablemates True Story (Easy winner of Feilden Stakes Listed) & Sudden Wonder (Tattersalls Millions 3yo Trophy Winner), his maiden alone has produced 6 individuals winners. His next start in the Vintage Stakes Group 2 at Goodwood he was only just caught by major Guineas fancy Toormore after his jockey went for home too soon after that he easily landed the odds in The Champagne Stakes Group 2 at Doncaster beating The Grey Gatsby easier than Toormore did in the Craven. He stepped up to Group 1 company in The Dewhurst next & was a disappointing 3rd in what was a slowly run race on ground that was the softest he had encountered, it just did not suit.

 At Santa Anita next time he showed what he was really made of with an incredible finish down the home stretch to win The Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Grade 1 showing that he stays the mile well. One of many Godolphin horses to stay in Newmarket all winter he has developed well physically & has been doing lots of work to bring up to the boil nicely for the first Saturday in May. Genuinely cannot see him being out of the first 3 on Saturday.

Night Of Thunder was beaten a mile by Kingman so why should he turn it around, the step up in trip will suit him as he should been seen to best effect at least a mile & his has still got the potential to improve after 3 starts especially as he was nowhere near ready in the Greenham, I can't see him really being good enough in top company.

The Grey Gatsby to be fair to him ran a great race in the Craven bustling up Toormore before tiring towards the finish, he did also seem to wander around looking ill at ease as they went into the dip which is a worry for Saturday, potentially that was just down to lack of fitness which if is the case he could easily run into a place. 

Ertijaal who has won 2 races on the AWT so far this year culminating in the big 3yo conditions win on Good Friday has also been allowed to take his chance, this might come too soon is this horse's progression but he has a sharp turn of foot & should be much better suited back on turf. He was joint favourites on debut at Leicester with Toormore last season & gave him a massive fright only losing out by a neck, their careers have followed different paths since but they re-oppose on Saturday, I much prefer Ertijaal as a horse & fully expect him to be a top miler by the end of the year.

Shifting Power dug deep to win the European Free Handicap at the Craven Meeting, a Guineas however is much tougher for this unbeaten colt whose form is a long way below that of the other runners. The mile is well within his compass but he lacks the class.

Master Of The World has be thrown in by connections & stands little chance on form, he was most disappointing when a well beaten 9th of 10 behind True Story. His lowly rating of 92 tells you all you need to know about the test he faces.  

In what looks a more open renewal than the markets are suggesting I cannot get away from Outstrip 28/1 BetVictor / Sportingbet at his inflated odds. 

   

Opening up 2000 Guineas day is the cavalry charge of The Suffolk handicap over 9f, a race that has been dominated been 4yo's most recently carrying between 8-10 - 9-0.

Top weight Trumpet Major has been out of sorts for a while & has it all to do. 

Farraaj last year's Winter Derby winner has been disappointing in 3 starts since including in this year's renewal, he will struggle to give his weight away to better handicapped rivals.

 Burano hasn't won since 2012 & won't be ending that sequence here, he looks badly handicapped as does Two For Two who is 9lbs higher than his last winning mark. 

Bold Sniper is a definite 4yo improver this term but not at 9f, his best form last year was over 12f winning a decent 3yo handicap at Ascot & a fast finishing 3rd at The Royal Meeting, this looks a pipe opener. Strictly Silver is a hardened handicapper who can be dangerous in theses traces granted a good pace to launch at but will probably find 1 or 2 too good. Proud Chieftain shaped with promise on at lest 3 starts last year & was unlucky in a couple more, I followed him over a cliff to no avail, he starts the year on a similar mark & is more than capable...do I go in again? 

Directorship looks reasonably handicapped on last year's form, he should get the 9f easy enough but will most likely need this return run. Stand My Ground ran a massive race in the Spring Mile behind old Brae Hill, he seems best on soft ground & the 5lbs rise makes this tough. Rock Choir was pulled out at Epsom last week & looks to be on an ok mark ahead of her first handicap taking on the boys, she could easily have more to give but will be overbet. Much more of interest is Andrew Balding's Rosearrow who ran an excellent race first time out at Nottingham, the type to progress again at 5 he won 2 Sandown handicaps in good style at the start of last season before becoming stuck in the handicappers grip. He is now only 2lbs off his last winning mark after being raised for his Nottingham run & will strip much fitter here. 

Niceofyoutotellme looks high on his return which I would imagine he will need while old Spifer could easily run well if the mood dictates but you could never be certain. Ajmany is the type his trainer Luca Cumani does really well with, he ran behind some useful 3yo's last year & has been dropped to a very handy mark.

Huighland Duke looks a bit high on what he has shown so far. Big Baz, Veeraya, Circumvent & Lunar Deity are not in the same class as those higher in the handicap & will be struggling to getting involved at the business end.

Rosearrow 11/1 BetVictor / William Hill impressed me last time & went straight into my tracker so I will happily put him forward in a race that looks perfect for him.

            The speedsters are back out in the 5f Palace House Stakes featuring some old favourites & a few young guns;

Dinkum Diamond comes back to 5f after being outpointed in the Abernant on his latest start, perhaps surprisingly he has yet to run in this race it could be made for this pacey animal who comes from an inform stable.

Eton Rifles is an excellent old horse in Listed company, he has never yet made the breakthrough at Group level & at the age of 9 on ground that will be too fast for him he won't be doing it here. 

Iptisam has been improving without winning on the AWT over the winter & ran a massive race to finish 2nd upped to Listed company behind Stepper Point last time, he shouldn't really be good enough.

Justineo was an improver at the end of last term but was found out by the step into Group 1 company on his final start, he should be much better suited at this level & rates a player.

Old Kingsgate Native steps back into the action at the age of 9 & can never be discounted but will likely need this at his age.

Moviesta was a very consistent 3 year old handicapper last year who burst onto the pattern level sprinting scene with a ready win in The King George at Goodwood all because he wouldn't have got into the Stewards Cup, he was disappointing next time at York. The type to progress again at 4 he is one to stay on the right side, he will probably need his first run though.

Pearl Secret has long been held in high esteem by his connections & pundits alike, he is a fragile animal having only had 7 starts in his life. His trainer has stated that he would only run on ground that is on the soft side in these Group sprints so if firm is in the going description then I cannot see him lining up.

Rocky Ground steps up into Group company for the first over what appears to be his best trip. A lightly raced horse who is unexposed so he could play a part.

Smoothtalkinrascal is another very speedy type who should have won last season's Epsom Dash, he got back on the winning trail at Musselburgh latest so is one to be interested in now he has regained the winning thread.

Old Sole Power won this race last year after some decent runs in Dubai, this year's Dubai trip did not go so well so I would rather watch than be with on Saturday unless he gets to big in the betting.

Stepper Point gained his Listed win on the AWT recently but could land a blow over 6f on finals day, he is an out & out 5f horse who I have fancied the last 2 years for this race but he has disappointed both times.

Hot Streak ran away with the Cornwallis on soft ground last year & ran a blinder to finish 2nd in the Middle Park on his next start. His best form has come with cut so I would worry for him on Sunday.

Extortionist will be hard to place this year & should not be up to this.

Don't fancy anything strongly enough to have a bet. 

There is a decent field lined up for The Jockey Club Stakes Group 2 which sees the 2014 debut of last year's Irish Derby & arguably top European 3yo Trading Leather, its also his first start in the Godolphin blue but he is still in the care of Jim Bolger. He has been the model of consistency as he has only finished outside the first 3 once in his life when 5th on unsuitable soft ground in The Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo, this looks a good starting point for him as a 4yo, so far in his career he has needed his first start so it would not be the end of the world if he was beat.

Penglai Pavillion also represents the boys in blue, he returns to the track after a disappointing display in the Dubai City of Gold when he looked unsuited by the fast ground finishing awkwardly. That would be my concern for Saturday as the ground will be the fastest he has encountered & his best form has been on very soft, I need to be convinced he can handle it so I would rather watch how he gets on.

Renew was another Meydan disappointment (as were most of the Botti horses) finishing 7th over 1m6f in The Nad Al Sheba Trophy, his last start in England at the end of last season was a win over course & distance in a weak Listed race, I am led to believe that his long term aim is the Melbourne Cup so he will need to be running well in races of this type to get his rating up.

Pether's Moon managed to win a Listed race at Kempton in November after a decent season in handicaps, this represents another step up & I don't believe he will be good enough.

Joshua Tree ran as well as could be expected in last weekend's Prix Ganay going off too fast before fading late on. He is back in a much more suitable grade now but still makes little appeal especially giving 5lbs to his younger more promising rivals.

Havana Beat was outclassed in countless Group races last year & unless he has progressed massively over the winter the same outcome awaits here.

Gospel Choir is a favourite of mine, he ran a mighty race over an inadequate 1m1f in the Earl Of Sefton with a fast finishing 3rd. Back up to a more suitable trip he is a massive danger to Trading Leather with the fitness edge.

Brass Ring is an unexposed 4yo who has won his last 2 handicaps, he beat Renew comfortably last year & just got home by a neck from Viewpoint at Lingfield at the start of the month that last piece of form doesn't give him a chance in this, he is now rated 98 so he has to find 22lbs to get near a top form Trading Leather. Of course he probably won't have to find that amount as Trading Leather may need this & Brass Ring has the potential still to get to a mark well into the 100's so he is respected.

Times Up is using this as a starting point for another season in the top staying races & won't have the pace for this.

Quite fancy Gospel Choir 5/1 BetVictor / Paddy Power (WON 6/1) on the back of his excellent first start of 2014, he should be sharper than Trading Leather will be.

The 6f & 1 mile 3yo handicaps look trappy & would not interest me on a card of such quality they are best left alone.

The Makfi Newmarket Stakes Listed over 1m2f is a Derby trial, since it was first run in 1978 (several versions existed before run at various times throughout May) it has produced 2 Derby winners, Shirley Heights in 1978 & 1985's runaway winner Slip Anchor since then it has only produced a handful of Derby runners but has also been the starting block for some classy animals like;

 Minster Son ('88, went onto to win The St Leger),

Tenby ('93, was hot favourite for the Derby after also winning The Dante), 

Presenting ('95, finished 3rd at Epsom & is now a NH super sire), 

Dr Fong ('98, Won St James's Palace Stakes Group 1),

Beat Hollow (2000, 4th in The Derby, went onto win 4 Group / Grade 1's Grand Prix De Paris, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, Manhattan Handicap & The Arlington Million, he is now a top NH sire) & Frankel's full brother Noble Mission (2012, dual Group 3 winner).

This year's renewal looks excellent with most of the attention on Cloudscape (certainly from @GMHsports who is a huge fan (thanks for the pic)),

 he is unbeaten in 2 starts so far & comes into this of the back of a excellent handicap victory at the Craven meeting which already looks top form as the 2nd Windshear hacked up at Sandown last Friday. Quite a scopey individual he looks like the further he goes the better he will be. 

Godolphin's Pinzolo returns to the track after a shocking run on desperate ground in last season's Racing Post Trophy before that he had shown a sharp turn of foot to win The Haynes Hanson & Clark Conditions race at Newbury beating last week's impressive Esher Cup winner What About Carlo, he didn't enjoy the ground at Doncaster which some would see as a surprise as he is by Monsun as he has quite an even action, he has done very well over the winter & is expected to make his mark in the middle distance division.

Mutakayyef steps up to a much more suitable trip after his narrow Newbury maiden reverse, the company should hold no fears for this strapping chestnut son of Sea The Stars, he could well be underestimated in the betting.

Postponed ran as well as could be expected in the Craven, he should be better over this longer trip but may just lack the class of a couple of his opponents. 

Sir Jack Layden was due to run in Sandown's Classic Trial but was pulled out due to the change in the going he is quite a tall sort who looked unfurnished last year, he brings pretty useful form to the table & was last seen finishing 8th in The UAE Derby. He should appreciate the step up in trip & could well sneak a place.

Bremner steps up in class off the back of 2 ordinary wins last year both of which are not working out that well, he has a lot on against at lest 3 potentially very useful rivals. 

God Willing has it all to do judged on his 4th in an average Kempton conditions event earlier in the month while Barley Mow was very disappointing last time behind True Story never ever getting competitive, he looks to be on ratings stuck between a rock & a hard place. His stablemate Pupil was beaten by Pinzolo at Newbury when getting the run of the race & then was another to finish down the field in The RP Trophy, on breeding I wouldn't be convinced that he will stay this far. Act Of Charity was also due to contest Sandown's Classic Trial & the same comment applies here as it did last week....he will need an Act Of Charity to be involved.

At the prices I have to be with Pinzolo 13/2 BetVictor / Ladbrokes 

   

@fttfracing