Newmarket Craven Meeting Day One

Hello & welcome along to my blog for Day One of Newmarket's Craven Meeting, with only 3 weeks until The QIPCO Guineas Festival the Classic picture seemed to become a little clearer after Kingman's demolition of what looked like one of the best fields assembled in recent years for last Saturday's AON Greenham Stakes & the short prices quoted after the event looked the correct reaction from Bookmakers as well as the eulogising from the racing fraternity, to the naked eye it was a very impressive performance winning by an eased down 4.5 lengths.

However I believe there are reasons to oppose him in 3 weeks time especially at his current cramped odds & they are the following;

1) He is extremely compact & has done little growing over the winter so to me there is little scope for major improvement from Newbury to Newmarket (of course on figures he won't need to but I doubt so many of his rivals will run below par in the Guineas)

2) His winning distance was exaggerated on Saturday as the pace was so slow he was able to sit in behind & use his turn of foot to good effect, it was telling to me that his usually rather reversed trainer said 'without doubt he has the highest cruising speed of any that I have trained at this trip, a mile will be his distance', although Gosden added a mile will be his distance it was at 7f that he suggested the colt had the high cruising speed.

3) On from the last point will he stay the stiff mile at Newmarket? 

I harbour doubts due to his cruising speed & makeup, he appeals more as a sprinter. Breeding backs this up, as his sire Invincible Spirit's progeny that stay a mile & beyond are from staying Dams / Grandsires, whereas his dam Zenda is by Zamindar who got no further than 6f at his best (Zamindar does get staying animals but only when crossed with staying mares), Zenda did win a weak French 1000 Guineas but the mile is less taxing at Longchamp than at Newmarket & she never won at that distance again, she has produced a handful of foals to date with the best until Kingman being Remote who has won at 10 furlongs but he is by Dansili who has a much stouter pedigree than Invincible Spirit.

4) His trainer John Gosden is on fire at such an early stage of the season & it will be hard to keep that up even for only just 3 more weeks.

Of course he may just be that good that he is so much better than his opponents but for my sins I don't believe he will win.

The main focus of my attendance on Saturday was to see Berkshire strut his stuff....indeed he did strut & throw his head up in the air then alas his race was run, he dropped away tamely which on the face of it was awfully disappointing but on reflection there are positives, His appearance; he looked outstanding, having clearly grown, thickened up & really beginning to fill his powerful frame. 

His attitude; was much more relaxed in the paddock & pre parade compared to last season, he threw his head around a couple of times but nowhere near the degree of last year.  

However much I hoped he could win a Greenham it was never going to be the distance he excels at especially with the ludicrous slow pace which saw him refuse to settle. For me looking on connections should have allowed him to stride on & then maybe he would have been involved.

More positives I have been told that he has come out of the race well & that next time we will see a different animal, that next time is likely to be the Dante at York which keeps my Derby dream alive. Hopefully Berkshire will show what he is capable of over the longer distance that I truly believe he is made for.

The fillies trial went the way of the well backed J Wonder (see photo below) who looked well forward in the paddock & showed her Lowther run was all wrong defeating the pony sized Al Thakira, both will most likely reappear in the 1000 Guineas of which the winner J Wonder should stay & she has a potent turn of foot so she could easily be involved,

 Al Thakira is just too small for my liking so I could see Saturday's 3rd Joyeuse being more of a threat in a Guineas as she was short of room in behind & finished well, beforehand she looked in need of the run.

So onwards to Day One of the Craven Meeting, the card kicks off with the Alex Scott maiden stakes which usually produces a useful animal indeed last year it was won by Music Master. This year's renewal is a rare small field with only 9 runners, the James Toller trained Ganges should go ok in this, he is a decent looking animal who finished 5th on both his starts last term although he will probably have to settle for a place behind the another of the Gosden battalion as the former champion trainer sends recent Doncaster 2nd Provident Spirit into action again.

The 2yo conditions race features the Brocklesby 3rd Flyball who went one better at Nottingham last week & Godolphin's first 2yo runner of the year in the shape of Portamento, its a race to watch rather than to get involved with.  

Godolphin have a great chance of getting a winner in Race 3 the Tattersalls Millions Sprint as Wedding Ring 11/4 BET365 / BETFRED / PADDY POWER / STAN JAMES returns to these shores after a decent Carnival at Meydan, on form she is head & shoulders above her rivals, she won 2 of these races last backend. 

Crowdmania has racked up a sequence in lesser company & faces a tough task at the weights perhaps more of threat will be the unexposed Scrutiny for the astute William Haggas.

The Free Handicap is not the race it once was but at least features two unbeaten animals in Mushir & Shifting Power, Mushir won a York Listed race on his final start needing all of the 6f to get on top, his stable are notoriously slow starters so we will have to see how fit he is. 

Shifting Power won 2 minor races last season, on his last start at Newmarket in August he beat Treaty Of Paris who went on to fluke a Group 3 success at York & was later put in his place by Outstrip, that formline at least entitles Shifting Power to respect. Aeolus ran a well beaten 2nd to last Saturday's Greenham 2nd Night Of Thunder on his last start so faces a big task here. 

Parbold is a big unit & represents last year's winning connections this looks an obvious opening, Saayerr was a speedy early juvenile who never went on so I couldn't envisage him being involved but I would be wary of ruling out the little belter that is Miracle Of Medinah who showed tenacity & grit all last season gaining a deserved Group 3 win in the Somerville Tattersalls Stakes, if they allow him an easy lead he will be tough to peg back.

The Big race of Day One is the Nell Gwyn the fillies Classic trial:

Along Again - 

Not been seen since last season Princess Margaret Stakes if ready to roll is a big player.

Artistic Charm - 

Big step up in class after winning a lowly Warwick maiden by 3.5 lengths before that had been easily brushed aside by Valen who cut little ice at Group level.

Azagal - 

Thoroughly exposed as a juvenile but consistent to a point, the type that could easily go well at a price in this race.

Blockade - 

Another exposed animal who has no real expectations at this level, was easily brushed aside by Al Thakira last year.

Dorothy B - 

Will be overbet as she is the all conquering John Gosden runner, has some of the best form in this race finishing 5th in The Cheveley Park having been just beat by Joueuse previously.

Euro Charline - 

Massive step up from 2 Wolverhampton wins although the last was by 9 lengths. One to watch.

Folk Melody - 

Not been seen since a Newmarket maiden last July when she won impressively. Well bred daughter of Folk Opera who won the EP Taylor Stakes Group 1 & was placed a numerous stakes races. Could be anything & has been working well at home. 

Lamar - 

Exposed & not up to this class.

Lily Rules - 

Consistent Juvenile but flying too high in this.

Majeyda - 

Useful at Listed level but beaten twice in Group company, stays further & is another who brings good form into this race.

Miss Lille - 

Out of her depth on all known form.

Pelerin - 

Well bred daughter of Shamardal who won her Kempton maiden in decent style, massive step up but respected.

Queen Catrine - 

Holds the best form on offer in this race having been placed 4 times in Group company behind the likes of Lucky Kristale & Indonesienne. Should stay & if ready will be a real threat.

Sandiva - 

Always been held in high regard, has a Listed minor Deauville Group 3 success to her name, easily brushed aside by Queen Catrine's stablemate Kiyoshi at Royal Ascot & well behind Queen Catrine in the Boussac when last seen. Will be primed for this & it will be interesting to see if she's trained on.

Wind Fire - 

Sprinting filly who found it hard to win last year & will find it even tougher this time around. Not for me.

Intriguing race in which I will chance Godolphin's Folk Melody 9/1 CORAL with Queen Catrine & Along Again to fight out minor honours.

The Feilden Stakes received a much needed boost last year with Andre Fabre sending over what would prove to be the classy French Derby winner Intello & this year the race is rewarded by a field of 10 potentially useful animals.

Somewhat heads the weights, he was last seen getting stuffed in the Racing Post Trophy but before that only just getting chinned by Berkshire in the Royal Lodge, he was a lovely looking 2 year old so one would hope he has grown into a powerful 3 year old, to me he will need all of this 9f trip but it is a logical starting point. 

Barley Mow got no luck in what turned out to be a farce of a race at Lingfield recently, he will have benefitted from that but faces at least 2 potentially useful rivals in this. 

Cordite showed his best form on soft ground last year & lacks the class. 

Madeed has not been since scrambling home in a Goodwood maiden last August, he looked weak last year so I expect him to have strengthened over the winter but connections clearly don't think he will be a stayer as he is not in the Derby, one to watch to see what he can do rather than bet.

Master Of The World won what looked a decent backend maiden on paper over this course last October in authoritative style so given normal improvement could easily be involved up in class. 

Obliterator 6/1 CORAL went into my notebook after winning a Curragh maiden last September coming with a sustained withering run to win going away in the style of a Group class animal, this is his Guineas prep so he is expected to go very well, on the impression he gave me I expect him to win & then take his chance in the first Classic.

Rock And Roll Star, Truth Or Dare & Stormadal are outclassed for me while True Story has a lovely staying pedigree, on last year's 2 runs he looks a classy colt who won his maiden in decisive style after getting beaten on debut by his stablemate Outstrip. He will give Obliterator most to do but will likely need a lot further this season.

The 1m2f maiden looks a race to hit the record button for as they are some choicely bred newcomers involved namely Ayrad, Connecticut, Min Alemarat & Every Time taking on some more well bred animals who made the track last season chief among them is Munjaz who was sent off favourite twice last year & both times was readily beaten looking a hard ride. He will be high up in the betting due to being a John Gosden trainee, his owner compatriot Mustadaam looked a real staying type last year & it was encouraging to see a decent run from him on debut behind Master Of The World, I can see him going well on Wednesday. 

The closing 6f handicap is tough & doesn't appeal to me from a betting point of view.

@fttfracing