Thursday 19 June 2014

Royal Ascot: Day Four Friday 19th June 2014

Friday already, as the old adage says 'Time flies when your having fun',
Hello again & welcome to my blog, hope I find you well at this stage of The Royal Meeting.

Opening the card is The Albany for 2yo fillies over 6f. 
Appleberry was upped in grade last time out at York, sent off a big price she was outpaced before staying on well over the 5f, the step looks like it will be to her advantage, not discounted. 
Bond's Girl is unbeaten in 2 starts so far after 2 minor wins, Kasb did little for the form of her last race & she looks like she will struggle in this. 
Bazzana sluiced home in the Windsor mud last home by 10 lengths after a taking debut, both races looked extremely ordinary but you cannot really crab her performance last time.  She has been bought by Highclere since her Windsor win. 
Genuine fast ground is a slight concern. 
Bitter Lake won comfortably again on soft ground on her debut at Newmarket at the end of last month, should have no issues on the faster ground. 



Cursory Glance showed some greenness before loading on debut getting a little worked up, in the race she looked a little outpaced before grabbing hold of the bit & won quite cosily at the line, time was just, entered in Moyglare later in the season. 
Effusive ran green on debut up at Carlisle & still managed to win under a hands n'heels ride, could be quite useful. 
Elite Gardens has not been since an excellent debut performance over 5f on 2000 Guineas day against the boys, she was green early before Kieran Fallon got hold of her, she showed a good turn of acceleration to pull clear of well rated colt. Form is just ok at the moment but she is clearly smart & entitled to be there abouts. 



Expensive Date should be up in trip, she won a weak race at Bath & was beaten behind an also ran in yesterday's Queen Mary, work to do. 
Fuijiano & Gilded Lace are outclassed after showing little in maidens. 
Gold Waltz received a good ride from the front on her 2nd start at Warwick bouncing out & taking hold of the race, big improvement from her debut but this is much tougher for her.
Ocean Crystal is a twice raced maiden who has shown little so far. 
Osailia was well beaten by Blue Aegean on her debut at Nottingham on soft ground, she was fancied to go closer so you could say she was disappointing. Should be capable of winning a maiden but this looks a big ask. 
Patience Alexander is unbeaten in 2 starts at Wolverhampton & in a Listed race at York, her York performance was impressive where she travelled like a classy filly before coming away to win from a filly who has since won a Listed race, big player on that run. 



Peace And War is a good 2nd string to Qatar racing's Likely, she cost over $300,000 as a yearling & is extremely well thought of it at home. She was due to run 2 or 3 when the ground was bad before she finally made her debut on the AW at Lingfield, she looked professional & won in the style of a filly who should make it up in grade. Secret Liaison was well found in the market on debut & duly obliged making all looking very professional, interesting. Secret Lightning was well beaten by a lesser Hannon horse on debut, has work to do in this grade on her 2nd start. 
Sexy Legs represents David Wachman, she is nicely bred as you would expect for a Coolmore horse, her debut was pleasing travelling well in behind before being unleashed to only just fail, sure to improve & respected from top connections. 
Showcard improved from a nice debut run at Ascot in a decent maiden to win at Goodwood showing battling qualities on ground that may not have suited, probably not good enough but a nice filly all the same.



Sleepy Dust caused a surprise on her debut when winning at 33/1, no fancy entries & you would think she would do well to mix it with the best of these. 
Sunset Glow has had 2 starts in the US at lowly Presque Isle Downs on her debut she was outpaced on the Tapeta surface, she moved onto Belmont Park over 5f on Turf & made all to win easily, has to be taken seriously. 
York Express has shown little on her 2 starts to suggest she has any chance of getting involved in this.

No bet race.





A big field of 16 top handicappers & minor pattern performers are out in force for the Wolferton Rated Stakes Handicap. Seems an odd race to run Just The Judge shouldering top weight against the boys, cannot see her getting involved. 
Edu Querido has shown nothing in Dubai or England & is too high in the handicap. Contributor is stuck between two stalls not good enough for Group races & too high for handicap's. His best form is on softer ground & stable form is a worry. 
Hall Of Mirrors gets the chance to run for his life after being used as a pacemaker for his better class stablemates, I always worry when horses who have been perennially used as pacemakers have their attentions turned back to themselves as it normally does not work. On his form he would not be good enough anyway. 
Boomshackerlacker is a consistent handicapper but has no pretentions of staying this far or being good enough. First Mohican drops back down to 10 furlongs for the first time since an impressive win at York last season, he never really took to hurdling with the fluency that was expected & his best form is on softer ground. 
Saxo Jack had a good winter in Dubai confirming the promise of his unlucky 4th on his last English run at Newbury winning comfortably on his 2nd start, even his 3rd on his final start was an excellent run. He has the potential to progress up the ladder into pattern company with ground in his favour he should go well. 



Wigmore Hall has been given a massive chance by the handicapper, he races from only 4lbs higher that the mark that he won the John Smith's Cup back in 2010. He is a dual winner of the Grade 1 Northern Dancer in Canada which would be the equivalent of a Group 3 over here & is also a past winner of a Jebel Hatta Group 2. Has his favoured fast ground & could easily bolt up against these if he retains even half of his ability. 



Baltic Knight has returned well below his best this season & does not look like a horse who wants 10f. Fattsota was a strong fancy of mine for this last year when disappointing, he has since been well beaten on all of his starts since & even David O'Meara has yet to unlock the door. 
Energizer returns to Royal Ascot for the first time since winning the Tercentenary for Germany in 2012 in the style of a classy horse, he has not had the rub of the green since joining Godolphin & on his return from a long absence in Dubai over the winter he was a terraway runner who looked as though he had lost the plot. He is a big horse who is a handful so I would rather watch before considering backing him, he does also need to prove that the fast ground is ok for him.
Sennockian Star shouldn't really be good enough from this kind of mark, his form has gone after a series of decent early season wins. 



Dick Doughtywilie was 14th last year, he has been much improved on the AW throughout the winter, if he can translate that back to the Turf then he can be given a chance.
Bold Sniper has his quirks but also is blessed with a good amount of talent, has had this race in the headlights since a fast finishing 3rd over an inadequate trip at Newmarket on his seasonal debut, should be capable from this mark. 
Rebellious Guest for me is in the wrong race & I couldn't fancy him over 10f even though he has shown he stays I doubt he will be as effective in this grade. 
Cafe Society has recently changed hands at the London sale on Monday, he has been bought by Australian connections & will be trained by the Golden lady of Australian racing Gai Waterhouse. He got his head in front at Windsor easily at Windsor last time after a series of decent runs & on form with Bold Sniper from last year he must go very close in this before departing these shores.

Interesting race, Bold Sniper should go well but is quite short, Cafe Society has to be respected as does Saxo Jack, will wait until nearer the time. 




The Ascot Derby looks a most interesting race, like the Ribblesdale horses that ran at Epsom have a poor record. Unbeaten Italian Derby winner Dylan Mouth (centre of picture) travels over like his stablemate Final Score did in yesterday's Ribblesdale. He took awhile to get going chasing down his well ridden stablemate to win going away, respected but needs to be pretty good giving away 3lbs.





Adelaide is improving at the right stage, he ran a good race on debut in France before winning a reasonably un-competitive race at The Curragh over 1m2f. Stamina is far from assured & will most likely be overbet. 
Bunker dropped tamely at York on his last start, he has developed over the winter but I do have my doubts on breeding regarding his stamina, couldn't fancy him after his last run. Eagle Top should excel over middle distances like his half sister The Lark. He won nicely on his debut when his stable were red hot, he failed to progress at Leicester next time when disappointing. This is big step up which may come too soon but interestingly William Buick has chosen him over the Derby 6th. 
Miner's Lamp has been running well carrying big weights in handicaps on his last 2 starts winning quite nicely last time out, steps up in grade but entitled to respect. If Odeon can be restrained more he may have a chance as he did too much on slightly softer ground in The Dante last time before sticking on again at the end. 
Scotland has looked really slow on soft ground in both runs this season, the ground really shouldn't be an issue but maybe the better ground will help him on Friday as he needs to find something to get involved. 
Seagull Star hated the ground last time out at Chester, his seasonal debut was decent behind Sudden Wonder & subsequent Listed winner Observational, must be given a chance on better ground. 
Snow Sky was my Ante Post Derby selection so it was disappointing that he knocked himself before the big race, sensibly he was taken out & returns here back in good form with himself. He was a most impressive winner of a decent looking Lingfield Derby Trial showing a hitherto unknown turn of foot on decent ground, respected. 



Western Hymn ran as well as I thought he could do in The Derby, he lives on his nerves & will find the atmosphere here troubling once more add to that stable jockey William Buick ditches him for the unexposed Eagle Top.

Snow Sky 5/1 (Disappointing did not stay on fast ground) impressed me last time & I hope he can win this.


The big race of the day is easily the worst Coronation Stakes I can remember with none of the 3 European Guineas winners taken their chance. 
Euro Charline has progressed well from her 2 Wolverhampton wins to 2nd in a Nell Gwyn & 5th in a 1000 Guineas. Has chances in an open race. 



J Wonder will appreciate the better ground here, she did drop away after making her move at Longchamp last time & perhaps she doesn't quite hit the mile. 



Kiyoshi will attempt to do something that no filly has done in the last 24 years win the Coronation on her first start of the season, she was a Royal Ascot winner last year but also has temperament, classy at her best but will need a huge effort to win this on her first run.



Lesstalk In Paris was a major disappointment in The French 1000 beaten early & fading badly at the finish previous to that she had won The Prix De La Grotte on her seasonal debut, chances if she can return to her best. 



Lightning Thunder has her best chance of gaining a Group 1 victory on her favoured ground after finishing 2nd at Newmarket & The Curragh. She was very forward for both of those & I wonder how much improvement she has left in her compared to some of the more unexposed rivals in this. 



Lucky Kristale tries the mile again after appearing not to stay at Newmarket, cannot have her in this. 



My Titania is another to be making her seasonal debut after an interrupted spring, she has missed both Guineas due to slight injuries & ground. Will need a big performance to be winning this first time out. 



Radiator steps back into Group company after a good comeback run in a Listed race at York when only just failing. She will come on for that & was favourite after a 15 length maiden win to beat Miss France & Lightning Thunder in the Oh So Sharp last season where she raced on the outside with no cover that day so can be forgiven that run. Unexposed with lots of potential she is a fly in the ointment. 



Rizeena goes well here at Ascot, she never really threatened in the 1000 Guineas & if anywhere near her best should play a part.



Rosalind is a most interesting runner from the States, she was 4th in The Kentucky Oaks last time out & already has a Group 1 win to her name on Dirt when she dead heated in The Ashland Stakes on Keeneland's Polytrack. Way back on her debut she won on Turf at Ellis Park so the surface should be fine for her, she might just be too good for these & is an insulting price.  



Sandiva does not stay & is not up to this class anyway.



Tapestry finished tailed off at Newmarket, apparently there were mitigating circumstances but for me it would take a leap of faith to back her now.



It's significant that Sir Michael lets Radiator (Unplaced) take her chance & at 16/1 E/W Bet365 she is worth a bet.


The Queen's Vase is this year a Listed race despite producing in the last 2 years an Ascot Gold Cup winner & a St Leger winner. 
Anglos Irish looks all stamina but has yet to prove that Turf suits & is upped in grade. 
Big Orange is a sizeable horse who showed promise on all his starts, he chased home Derby 3rd Romsdal on his debut before winning breaking his maiden at Lingfield. Steps up markedly in distance & is far from certain to stay on breeding but his run style gives him hope. Century was disappointing on his seasonal return at Chester but that was on bad ground, similar breeding to last year's winner from the stable as he is also out of a sprinting filly. God's Speed looks all stamina but does not look good enough. 
Hartnell ran much better last time behind Snow Sky at Lingfield, not certain to get this far but Mark Johnston has an enviable record in this race & his horses always stay further than they are bred too, respected.



Hatsaway has shown promise in maidens & stamina looks his strong point but would have been better in a maiden. Loving Your Work looks all stamina but this a monstrous step up from an official mark of 66. Marzocco misses the King Edward & steps up markedly in trip, his American pedigree gives little hope that he will stay this far but he has shown a likeable attitude which offers hope, better ground will suit & is respected. 



Min Almarat is all stamina as he showed when powering away on soft ground in a 1m4f maiden at Haydock, gives you hope that he has much more to come & could go well at decent odds. Montaly screams 2 miles which is no real surprise as a son of 4 time Gold Cup winner Yeats, stayed on all the way to the line on wet ground at Haydock behind the useful Wrangler. The better ground here will suit & he is a strong fancy for me in this. 
The Corsican was a good 3rd to Wrangler in debut at Salisbury, he went to Kempton to win well, step up looks likely to suit but may find one or two that are too classy for him. Gold Approach steps up from a 5 length maiden win at Lingfield, form is just average & really should struggle in this. 

Have had Montaly (Didn't act on the fast ground & finished 6th) in my mind for this for awhile now & at 12/1 E/W he will do.


If you haven't had a winner by the last then god help you trying to get out of trouble in the 36 runner 7f Buckingham Palace Stakes.
Fort Knox a useful 3yo when with Johnny Murtagh last year heads the weights after an excellent first run for Godolphin at Newbury last time where he came from an uncompromising position to grab 2nd late on. Clearly capable from this handicap mark & will receive a balls of steel ride from Richard Hughes, draw looks a potential stumbling block. Intransigent's progress had stalled of late after a disappointing winter in Dubai, work to do. Heaven's Guest has shown little so far this season including last time in The Victoria Cup, type who can bounce back & has chances. 
Horsted Keynes finally gets a chance to get a run in one of these big field handicaps after a couple of abortive missions have astray due to ground, clearly has a decent level of ability but has not been missed by the handicapper as a result. 
Santefisio was well beaten in Wednesday's Royal Hunt Cup, work to do.
Pastoral Player has a big chance on ratings, needed his first run in The Victoria Cup last time & loves these big field Ascot handicaps, player if the low draw turns out to be ok. Georgian Bay looks handicapped out of things at present as does Louis The Pious. Blessington has long promised a big win in one of these handicaps, he comes here in grand form after a powerful display when winning at this course over 6f last time out. 



The improved Hillbilly Boy was 2nd to Blessington at Ascot the time before last, he returned to 7f at Newmarket the other day & won well, this is his best trip so is respected given his current wellbeing.



 Mezzotint has been out of form so far but has a chance from his mark under young Joseph O'Brien from a very high draw. 
Bubbly Bellini an Irish raider has form in big field handicaps, consistent for the majority & ran a taking race last time out. 
Zanetto is as a physical specimen the most stunning powerful looking individual, he has shown very little on his last few starts as a result his mark has dropped to a nice looking one, speedy & has always looked as though he would stay, could easily go well. 
Brae Hill is a fantastic horse who goes well in big fields, he has yet to show his best form at Ascot & maybe a lb or two too high. Blaine looked one to take note of after his last run from a stable that has won 2 in the last 10 years, will he stay that is the question? 
Russian Realm finally won last time at Goodwood when dropped to this trip, it looked to be the making of him, should be more than capable from his new mark.



Watchable ran a decent race on his handicap debut at Goodwood on what had looked a fairly high mark, he then went to Ripon on heavy ground & was never really in contention before his saddle slipped, respected from his high draw on better ground. 
Jack's Revenge has clearly been laid out for this after a decent run last time out, he was 8th last year & returns on a higher mark, wouldn't be that much of a shock if he were to run extremely well. 
Deauville Prince has some good form in the book but has looked out of sorts for awhile now. One Word More has only 2 wins to his name & struggles against these better class animals. Mabait was in bliding form at the end of last season but has reverted to type again this year, better ground & a return to a big field race will help so is not discounted. This is tougher than Secret Art has been involved with to date but he is an improving 4yo who from a good draw is respected back on better ground, he ran ok on bad ground off his new mark at Sandown on his latest start. 
Bronze Angel didn't enjoy making the running last time at Newbury, he is handicapped to get involved as he now a lb lower than his Cambridgeshire victory of 2 years ago, should be involved. Rene Mathis steps back up to 7f after a good win last time, he has form at the intermediate distance & would have chances if as I have said previously the low draw is not an inconvenience. 
Excellent Guest is a regular in these Ascot handicaps, he is now only a lb below his last winning mark of 93 when he won last season's Victoria Cup. He has also been 2nd in The Royal Hunt Cup in 2012 from his current mark & was 2nd off 90 in this race back in 2011. Will clearly have had this race as a target & could not be discounted. 
Askaud is a capable filly in a lesser grade & has work to do to be involved, could play a valuable role in towing the low drawn horses into the race though. Jammy Guest has not been seen for a while, he was well thought of last year & was tried middle distances before dropping back to 7f in The Jersey, has not been since a lacklustre display in a handicap last July. Been allotted what looks a very fair mark. 
One to note for later in the season. Sir Reginald has a fair level of ability & is steadily coming down in the weights, ran a much better race last time. Another to be drawn low. Tamayuz Star has shown nothing in 2 starts for his new stable this season, if he can return to his best then his mark is lenient & his new stable do so well with this type of horse. Tellovoi has work to do in this grade judging by his last 2 runs. 
Seanie represents the Lavelle team who have had much success as owners with horses like Jamesie, Elleval & He's No Saint, this will be Seanie's first taste of an Ascot handicap but he looks the type who could easily go well off his low weight. 
Noble Citizen has history in these big handicaps during the summer at Ascot, he is not as he once was & took advantage of a reduced mark to rattle up a hat trick on Southwell's fibresand in the early part of the year. 

Blessington (Never a factor) at 12/1 E/W makes most appeal.


@fttfracing
                                   




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