Hello & welcome to my blog for Day Three of The Royal Meeting, its Ladies Day but more importantly its Ascot Gold Cup Day. So far the week has been wonderful with some proper performances on genuine fast ground. Ladies day promises more of the same.
Ladies Day opens with The Norfolk Stakes for 2yo's over 5f, unbeaten horses have a good record in this event. The Hannon stable has not won it in the last 10 years & Aidan O'Brien has not won a renewal since 2001. Ahlan Emarati won on rock hard ground at Bath on debut, it was just an ordinary race in an ok time. Will need to improve on that here. Baithe Alga has progressed quickly from a taking debut in a good race at Haydock, he won cosily at Chester before an impressive performance at Epsom on Derby Day over 6f, drop back in trip should not prove problematique & has a great chance.
Fine Prince was well behind Baithe Alga at Epsom last time, I cannot see him turning that form around & a place would be a great result for his connections.
Mind Of Madness was well beaten in Day one's Windsor Castle & faces an uphill task if backing up here.
Mignolino has twice been beaten by Queen Mary also ran Ko Cache, he has a lot to find in this grade. Mukhmal did well to win in Chester's Lily Agnes from his outside draw showing brilliant pace to make all & win going away, unbeaten in 2 starts he looks a very fast horse who should take some beating here.
Snap Shots is well thought of by connections & duly won on his debut, he wasn't overly impressive but the ground was quite soft so he may just have found it hard work getting through the ground, entitled to improve again but will need to.
The Great War comes with a big reputation as do most Ballydoyle 2yo's, he is unbeaten in 2 starts unchallenged on both although the form of both races are not working out of the 10 horses he has beaten; only 1 has won since they raced against The Great War, too short on what he has done for me.
To Be Determined is another from Wesley Ward's US base, she was beaten on debut over 4.5f at Churchill Downs in early may showing good early speed before fading towards the finish, work to do.
Fine Prince was well behind Baithe Alga at Epsom last time, I cannot see him turning that form around & a place would be a great result for his connections.
Mind Of Madness was well beaten in Day one's Windsor Castle & faces an uphill task if backing up here.
Mignolino has twice been beaten by Queen Mary also ran Ko Cache, he has a lot to find in this grade. Mukhmal did well to win in Chester's Lily Agnes from his outside draw showing brilliant pace to make all & win going away, unbeaten in 2 starts he looks a very fast horse who should take some beating here.
Snap Shots is well thought of by connections & duly won on his debut, he wasn't overly impressive but the ground was quite soft so he may just have found it hard work getting through the ground, entitled to improve again but will need to.
The Great War comes with a big reputation as do most Ballydoyle 2yo's, he is unbeaten in 2 starts unchallenged on both although the form of both races are not working out of the 10 horses he has beaten; only 1 has won since they raced against The Great War, too short on what he has done for me.
To Be Determined is another from Wesley Ward's US base, she was beaten on debut over 4.5f at Churchill Downs in early may showing good early speed before fading towards the finish, work to do.
Not a race I will be getting involved with.
One of the newer Royal Ascot races The Tercentenary has attracted a group of interesting 3yo's. Barley Mow was unsuited by the soft going last time at Goodwood, on his previous start he had bounced back with a battling front running display to win a Listed race at Newmarket, the better ground here will help but he strikes me as a horse who has little more improvement in him. Cannock Chase is on a rapid improve, he won in the style of a pattern performer last time Newbury coming wide with a sweeping run to win going away, respected upped in grade.
Cloudscape won a hot handicap on his seasonal return a race which has produced 4 winners including Listed winner & Oaks 3rd Volume, he was bitterly disappointing next time out behind Barley Mow when failing to settle. Ran a much better race last time when toungue tied for the first time only just losing out to Top Tug (whom he had previously beaten) giving away 10lbs to the winner, worth another try in pattern company & with a stronger pace he is fancied to get involved.
Mutakkayef is a gorgeous strong powerful chestnut son of Sea The Stars who had little trouble in breaking his maiden at Sandown last time out, previous to that he had pushed Barley Mow all the way at Newmarket, he will turn that form around here & is a strong fancy of mine to collect this prize.
Obliterator is another horse I have a lot of time for, you can forget his last run in the Irish Guineas as the ground had gone for him, previous to that he was beaten a long way behind True Story although he himself also pulled a long way clear of the remainder.
The issue though is that form now is looking nothing special True Story has not yet set the world alight with just an ok run in the Dante & a disappointing one in The Derby while of those in behind from the Fielden only Barley Mow has come out to win.
I do think the step up will help Obliterator here but maybe he is just a bit below the class I thought he would be. Postponed comes from a stable who are now in good form & a jockey who is riding at the top of his game, the slow pace did not help him last time behind Barley Mow but in truth he looked one paced anyway & I would doubt he is as good as some of his rivals. Somewhat did not handle Chester last time which is no real surprise for a big horse at least he showed more spark staying late in the piece to grab 3rd, this track will suit better as will the better more even tempo & he could go well at a price.
Spark Plug is 2 from 2 a ordinary maiden at Bath & a un-competitive handicap at Doncaster, he should appreciate a step up in trip but looks up against it here. Stormadal is held by a few of these & would be a surprise winner.
Cloudscape won a hot handicap on his seasonal return a race which has produced 4 winners including Listed winner & Oaks 3rd Volume, he was bitterly disappointing next time out behind Barley Mow when failing to settle. Ran a much better race last time when toungue tied for the first time only just losing out to Top Tug (whom he had previously beaten) giving away 10lbs to the winner, worth another try in pattern company & with a stronger pace he is fancied to get involved.
Mutakkayef is a gorgeous strong powerful chestnut son of Sea The Stars who had little trouble in breaking his maiden at Sandown last time out, previous to that he had pushed Barley Mow all the way at Newmarket, he will turn that form around here & is a strong fancy of mine to collect this prize.
Obliterator is another horse I have a lot of time for, you can forget his last run in the Irish Guineas as the ground had gone for him, previous to that he was beaten a long way behind True Story although he himself also pulled a long way clear of the remainder.
The issue though is that form now is looking nothing special True Story has not yet set the world alight with just an ok run in the Dante & a disappointing one in The Derby while of those in behind from the Fielden only Barley Mow has come out to win.
I do think the step up will help Obliterator here but maybe he is just a bit below the class I thought he would be. Postponed comes from a stable who are now in good form & a jockey who is riding at the top of his game, the slow pace did not help him last time behind Barley Mow but in truth he looked one paced anyway & I would doubt he is as good as some of his rivals. Somewhat did not handle Chester last time which is no real surprise for a big horse at least he showed more spark staying late in the piece to grab 3rd, this track will suit better as will the better more even tempo & he could go well at a price.
Spark Plug is 2 from 2 a ordinary maiden at Bath & a un-competitive handicap at Doncaster, he should appreciate a step up in trip but looks up against it here. Stormadal is held by a few of these & would be a surprise winner.
Am a fan of Mutakayyef (Staying on 2nd) 5/1 generally available who as already shown a decent level of form & can only get better with time.
Up next is quite possibly the worst Ribblesdale Stakes that I can remember in my lifetime with only one horse taking their chance after running at Epsom the 4th placed Inchilia who most people thought was unlucky not to get 3rd, she did get blocked out by Tarfasha but that is as much to do with Inchilia not handling the camber as it is Tarfasha's leaning. I would also say that Jamie Spencer should know not to attack up the inside at Epsom & should have had the filly switched earlier to the outside as that is the place to challenge on the downs, regardless of that she ran a huge race & if she has no ill effects of a 3rd hard race in 5 weeks she should go close but as we know horses who run in the Oaks have an average record here.
Unbeaten Italian Oaks winner Final Score travels over which at least adds some interest to the race, in a normal Ribblesdale I would say that she would be hard pressed but as this year's renewal is poor she has to be respected as she won in good style last time despite carrying a 3lb penalty.
Bracelet wears headgear for the first time after an abysmal effort in the 1000 Guineas last time, on breeding she is far from certain to stay. Stablemate Terrific has work to do after finishing down the field in The Cheshire Oaks & she doesn't look good enough even allowing for the low quality of the race.
Bright Approach did not handle Chester, her maiden win could not have worked out better as she beat 2 subsequent Listed winners Be My Gal & Marsh Daisy, she was clear of Talmada who re-opposes here. Stablemate Criteria was 2nd in a awful Lingfield Oaks Trial & you would expect at least a couple of these to be better than her.
Emaratiyia Ana was easily brushed aside in Listed company at Sandown last time, previous to that she ran well behind useful colts in a sales race, ought not to be good enough on all known form though. Lustrous improved from a interfered with seasonal debut run here to cause a minor shock in a Listed race at York over the mile last time, she steps up fully 4f's here but to me she really doesn't race or look like a staying filly.
Nancy From Nairobi is a thrice raced maiden who should not be underestimated in this especially for her first start on good fast ground, she ran a decent race in The Musidora last time, her form in decent early season maidens is pretty good & she is open to improvement. Talmada was beaten in a handicap last time against the boys previous to that she was a ready winner of an average Haydock maiden, this is a big step up but she is lightly raced. Vazira should appreciate the step up to 1m4f & the better ground, she has won at Group 3 level already & was 2nd last time out in soft in The Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary so her form stands head & shoulders above the other runners.
Wonderstruck is a beautifully bred half sister to Grandera, George Washington & Sun Central, she is unsurprisingly a beautiful looking filly who only made her debut just over a month ago when running a race full of promise over course & distance. She duly obliged next time out at Newmarket, massive step up but she will not be out of place & could easily get involved.
Unbeaten Italian Oaks winner Final Score travels over which at least adds some interest to the race, in a normal Ribblesdale I would say that she would be hard pressed but as this year's renewal is poor she has to be respected as she won in good style last time despite carrying a 3lb penalty.
Bracelet wears headgear for the first time after an abysmal effort in the 1000 Guineas last time, on breeding she is far from certain to stay. Stablemate Terrific has work to do after finishing down the field in The Cheshire Oaks & she doesn't look good enough even allowing for the low quality of the race.
Bright Approach did not handle Chester, her maiden win could not have worked out better as she beat 2 subsequent Listed winners Be My Gal & Marsh Daisy, she was clear of Talmada who re-opposes here. Stablemate Criteria was 2nd in a awful Lingfield Oaks Trial & you would expect at least a couple of these to be better than her.
Emaratiyia Ana was easily brushed aside in Listed company at Sandown last time, previous to that she ran well behind useful colts in a sales race, ought not to be good enough on all known form though. Lustrous improved from a interfered with seasonal debut run here to cause a minor shock in a Listed race at York over the mile last time, she steps up fully 4f's here but to me she really doesn't race or look like a staying filly.
Nancy From Nairobi is a thrice raced maiden who should not be underestimated in this especially for her first start on good fast ground, she ran a decent race in The Musidora last time, her form in decent early season maidens is pretty good & she is open to improvement. Talmada was beaten in a handicap last time against the boys previous to that she was a ready winner of an average Haydock maiden, this is a big step up but she is lightly raced. Vazira should appreciate the step up to 1m4f & the better ground, she has won at Group 3 level already & was 2nd last time out in soft in The Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary so her form stands head & shoulders above the other runners.
Wonderstruck is a beautifully bred half sister to Grandera, George Washington & Sun Central, she is unsurprisingly a beautiful looking filly who only made her debut just over a month ago when running a race full of promise over course & distance. She duly obliged next time out at Newmarket, massive step up but she will not be out of place & could easily get involved.
Not a race I would have an interest in.
The big race of the whole week is The Ascot Gold Cup which last year saw celebrations from on high as the top hats were flung into the air as Estimate gamely battled all the way to the line to win for her majesty. She returns this year on what will be her seasonal debut after having an interrupted preparation because of that she is currently trading at a huge price, she is 3 from 4 at Ascot & her wily trainer would not be running her if she wasn't ready to go. At current prices she is more than tempting.
Ahzeemah had been a model of consistency up until his last 2 starts but still his overall record is outstanding as he has finished no worse than 4th on 18 out of his 20 completed starts. Promises to stay the extra 4f's fine & has to have an outstanding chance of getting involved with ground in his favour.
Altano got going too late in last year's Gold Cup when a strong finishing 5th, he then went onto win The Prix Du Cadran with a dour staying performance. Has won already this term & is a player but at the age of 8 I would doubt he could actually win.
Brown Panther has been in outstanding form so far this season with 2 excellent performances, his win in last season's Goodwood Cup was impressive & he promises to stay fine so must be respected.
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Oriental Fox is my sneaky big priced pick for this, he looked a picture in the paddock at Ascot on his first start where he travelled like a improved horse taking the lead 2f out before Tac De Boistron breezed by on his favoured ground, I would forget his run at Sandown as he was positioned out the back on bad ground in a race that was dominated by horses who raced prominently at 66/1 he is overpriced.
Royal Diamond bounced back under a great ride on soft ground in last season's Long Distance Cup & this season he ran well behind Leading Light on debut, I have my doubts on his stamina & like Altano he is 8 so I don't think he could win a Gold Cup at that age.
Saddler's Rock is a hugely disappointing animal & cannot be fancied.
Simenon has not looked the same horse for a long time so I am surprised he is running as after his lacklustre showing in The Sagaro I was told after that he was not right & had not been right since Melbourne.
For me I will be surprised if Tac De Boistron runs if the weather continues to dry the ground as after he had won the Sagaro in grand style his trainer said he would not race on anything better than the ground that day (good to soft). He was 2nd on what in the going description was described as good ground in The Yorkshire Cup but times showed it was still on the easy side, the horse is talented but needs to have give in the ground.
Havana Beat is a doubtful stayer for me & should not be good enough.
Leading Light has been hot favourite since last year & hardened after his easy seasonal debut success, we know he stays 2 miles fine but whether he will get the extra 4f's is a doubt for me as his dam was all speed but he has defied the pedigrees statistics so far so all is possible but personally I would rather oppose him.
Ralston Road is well thought of by his ebullient owner who is not shy at coming forward with his opinions, he was fairly disappointing in Dubai in truth but bounced right back to form when dead heating with Clever Cookie at York last time, truly I cannot see him being good enough for all he will stay.
Shawaiman (Blue colours with noseband in behind Ralston Road) is a most interesting runner on proper fast ground, he should turn form round with Ralston Road on their last run. He is unexposed at staying distances & remains with potential, it looks significant that his talented trainer is letting him take his chance.
Irish mare's Missunited & Pale Mimosa complete the lineup; Missunited came over to Ascot in the Sagaro & was well beaten, she has since won a ordinary Listed race. She is a quality dual purpose animal but I would be surprised if she could get involved.
Similar comments apply to Pale Mimosa who has been beaten by a few of these on her last 3 or 4 starts but better ground here will help & the extra distance could well bring about the necessary improvement for her to run the best race of her life as her astute trainer would not be wasting the air fare to bring her over.
I have made no secret that I like Oriental Fox at huge odds 66/1 generally available, I will also back Ahzeemah who is most consistent & is overpriced at 20/1. (Both never really threatened)
30 3yo's face the starter in The Britannia over the straight mile. It looks a hugely competitive race as you would expect. Bow Creek shoulders top weight for Mark Johnston, he has missed engagements in pattern company for a crack at this, work to do from his mark but Johnston horses do so well here that you have to respect him.
Magnus Maximus has not been seen since causing a surprise in a sales race in early April, doubtful stamina & too much weight. Zarwaan will be fancied by many after a 2nd on bad ground at Haydock in a race that is the best trial for this, he looks extremely harshly treated on that run now & will have to be verging on pattern class to be winning here. American Hope has a lot of weight considering he has yet to race on Turf after spending all winter on the AW there are better handicapped horses than him.
Table Rock is a rare O'Brien runner in a handicap, he has won his last 2 starts in Ireland making the most of a reduced mark, he is up 12lbs here now & will need to be Group class to be wining (still entered in Irish Derby). Complicit looks badly treated on the form he has shown in England & has work to do. Chatez is up in the weights after making the millionaires in the Scoop6 at Haydock beating Zarwaan last time out, respected on that form but all his form so far has been on a softer surface.
Hunters Creek has been found out over further in better company on his last 2 starts, he has not added to his maiden win & looks harshly judged.
Hors De Combat missed the slog at Haydock which looks beneficial, he won in the style of an improving horse who should be capable of being competitive from his new mark, big player in this. On current form Lyn Valley looks in the handicapper's grip similar comments apply to Suzi's Connoisseur.
Third Dimension beat Table Rock in a maiden on his only start this year, judging by the latter's improvement Third Dimension must be respected from this mark & what looks an excellent high draw. Nezar was not upto better company in Dubai earlier in the year or in better company at the end of last year, this grade should suit better but he looks to have suffered in the weights for those runs.
Zampa Manos should not be good enough on what he has shown on Turf so far & neither should Mawfoor who has been on a downward spiral since his 2yo maiden win.
Pupil is potentially well in on form with Red Galileo & What About Carlo in the Haynes Hanson & Clark last year at Newbury, his subsequent runs were disappointing upped in grade but back down to a more suitable trip & grade I would not be surprised if he ran well. Beau Nash looks a little to high up in this kind of top handicap grade.
Legend Rising won nicely last time on soft ground at Chester, this is a step up & his best form has come with plenty of cut. First Flight has run 2 nice races so far this season on soft ground finishing a staying on 3rd behind Chatez & Zarwaan at Haydock last time, he looks very well handicapped at present & with better ground promising to suit he must go well. The only stumbling block is his lowest possible draw so we'll have to see which side comes out on top. Free Code ran a nice race last time giving weight to a promising rival who runs in pattern company early on the card, he looks still feasibly treated & from a high draw I would not discount at decent odds.
Ifwecan could be dangerous after bolting up at Musselburgh which was a big change in form, when Mark Johnston horses suddenly change find their form they can be worth following, chances. Dubawi Fun has just a lowly Southwell maiden win to his name, he was outclassed in what has turned out to be a poor crop of UAE 3yo's on Turf through the winter, his trainer is extremely talented but it would be some performance to get him to win this on his first start since March. Blimbi did too much in bad ground at Haydock last time, his previous win was decent at Musselburgh & he should be able to take a hand from this mark. Idea won a useful handicap at Kempton last time out in a decent time, his American pedigree suggests the fast ground should be a big plus for him, could be improving at the right time, player. Almargo bolted up under a positive ride at Epsom over 7f looking as though further would suit so it came as a surprise to see him over 6f last weekend at York he was duly outpaced, back up to the mile here he could be well handicapped on previous form with Blimbi, First Flight & Legend Rising, most interesting. Madeed wasn't up to Listed class on his seasonal debut, he has not been since April which is a worry as he was also off for a long time from his last 2yo race. His mark looks fine but whether he has the necessary experience for a race like this is debatable. The race Crowdmania won last time at Beverley can be ignored as he stole it from a promising horse who wasn't ridden to the best advantage, he is the choice of Joe Fanning so clearly is fancied but I think at least 2 of his stablemates look better than him.
Born In Bombay is extremely well regarded by connections, he made his Turf debut taking a keen hold last time at Newmarket before looking one paced at the finish behind Hors De Combat when in receipt of 7lbs, he now receives 9lbs from that rival & looks to have gained the better draw. He needs to relax otherwise his race is over but if he does he could be another to play apart. Mindyourownbuisness is improving & beat Crowdmania last time out at Yarmouth, big ask in this kind of race & could easily get lost.
Abbey Village won last time out in an ordinary race but he was carrying top weight that day so it was worth marking up, probably has more to prove than most in this company.
For all its a quality race I am struggling to see a bet & will leave it alone.
An excellent staying 3yo handicap ends the card with a deep field of 22 unexposed colts & geldings. Carlo Bugatti drops down to handicap after finishing down the field in The Chester Vase on bad ground, he has proved he is not up to pattern class already which he would need to be if he was to win this from top weight.
Truth Or Dare is helped by the talented Cam Hardie claiming 7lbs from his big weight & he needs all of that help as he no pretensions of staying this far.
I am surprised Stars Over The Sea is taking his chance in this under a big weight over 1m4f, he has developed into a good looking animal, ran much better last time out at Epsom but may find a few better off.
Windshear has been in grand form so far this season, he is still reasonably treated & should be involved.
Black Schnapps has improved in the early part of this year on soft ground, he seemed held from his new mark last time at Haydock & has work to do.
Elite Army is big stamp of a horse who came on from a decent first effort at Sandown to win at the same course last time, he was giving weight to 6lbs to Windshear on debut there is only a slight turnaround in the weights this time but on better ground I am a fan of Elite Army who is an improving horse.
Wrangler is on the upgrade with 2 wins on soft ground at Salisbury & a battling success with Black Schnapps, Fire Fighting & Fun Mc in behind last time out, needs to prove that soft ground is not as important as it appears to be, worth taking on.
Bremner is steadily coming down the weights but he does still need more.
Personal Opinion is weighted to reverse form with the improved Arab Dawn on their latest Newbury running, his form at Wolverhampton should stand him good stead for Ascot's sand based surface. Gold Trail is weighted to get closer to his Godolphin owner mate Elite Army on Sandown running 2 starts ago the problem for me is he looks quite one paced. Swivel has work to do from his current mark.
Arab Dawn completed his hat trick on the AW at Kempton last time out quite comfortably, he is up 10lbs in a much better race but he comes from a stable who do very well with this type of improving staying horse, cannot be discounted in current mood. Captain Morley won at Chester last time after a good run at the course first time out, he has to improve in this much better class of race.
Venezia is still a maiden who is making his first handicap start off what looks an ok mark, he has been in behind horses that have gone on to be rated between 84 - 97, he has struggled to get his head in front against the better class horses in maidens & that looks likely to be the case here.
Fire Fighting has now dropped to a decent mark after an awful run last time on soft ground at Doncaster, he was not beaten far by Wrangler the time before that. The better ground here will help him & he could just be the best of the Mark Johnston 4 in a race he has an excellent record in.
Art Of War faces a big step up in trip after breaking his maiden over 9f last time out, stamina looked his forte that day so he promises to stay but will he stay well enough to get involved. Zee Zeely has been kept fresh for this race after a decent win at Newmarket on his 2ndt start this season, he has an 8lb rise for that which could be conceived as harsh but looking at him he should be able to go on again & warrants respect towards the bottom of the weights.
Alex My Boy runs like a horse who needs much further racing in snatches, he was a disappointing 7th at Musselburgh last time & this demands more.
Trip To Paris has been disappointing on both starts this season & despite a slipping mark looks outclassed here.
Quite a fan of Elite Army 7/1 Bet365 (WON) in the last.
Ahzeemah had been a model of consistency up until his last 2 starts but still his overall record is outstanding as he has finished no worse than 4th on 18 out of his 20 completed starts. Promises to stay the extra 4f's fine & has to have an outstanding chance of getting involved with ground in his favour.
Altano got going too late in last year's Gold Cup when a strong finishing 5th, he then went onto win The Prix Du Cadran with a dour staying performance. Has won already this term & is a player but at the age of 8 I would doubt he could actually win.
Brown Panther has been in outstanding form so far this season with 2 excellent performances, his win in last season's Goodwood Cup was impressive & he promises to stay fine so must be respected.
Oriental Fox is my sneaky big priced pick for this, he looked a picture in the paddock at Ascot on his first start where he travelled like a improved horse taking the lead 2f out before Tac De Boistron breezed by on his favoured ground, I would forget his run at Sandown as he was positioned out the back on bad ground in a race that was dominated by horses who raced prominently at 66/1 he is overpriced.
Royal Diamond bounced back under a great ride on soft ground in last season's Long Distance Cup & this season he ran well behind Leading Light on debut, I have my doubts on his stamina & like Altano he is 8 so I don't think he could win a Gold Cup at that age.
Saddler's Rock is a hugely disappointing animal & cannot be fancied.
Simenon has not looked the same horse for a long time so I am surprised he is running as after his lacklustre showing in The Sagaro I was told after that he was not right & had not been right since Melbourne.
For me I will be surprised if Tac De Boistron runs if the weather continues to dry the ground as after he had won the Sagaro in grand style his trainer said he would not race on anything better than the ground that day (good to soft). He was 2nd on what in the going description was described as good ground in The Yorkshire Cup but times showed it was still on the easy side, the horse is talented but needs to have give in the ground.
Havana Beat is a doubtful stayer for me & should not be good enough.
Leading Light has been hot favourite since last year & hardened after his easy seasonal debut success, we know he stays 2 miles fine but whether he will get the extra 4f's is a doubt for me as his dam was all speed but he has defied the pedigrees statistics so far so all is possible but personally I would rather oppose him.
Ralston Road is well thought of by his ebullient owner who is not shy at coming forward with his opinions, he was fairly disappointing in Dubai in truth but bounced right back to form when dead heating with Clever Cookie at York last time, truly I cannot see him being good enough for all he will stay.
Shawaiman (Blue colours with noseband in behind Ralston Road) is a most interesting runner on proper fast ground, he should turn form round with Ralston Road on their last run. He is unexposed at staying distances & remains with potential, it looks significant that his talented trainer is letting him take his chance.
Irish mare's Missunited & Pale Mimosa complete the lineup; Missunited came over to Ascot in the Sagaro & was well beaten, she has since won a ordinary Listed race. She is a quality dual purpose animal but I would be surprised if she could get involved.
Similar comments apply to Pale Mimosa who has been beaten by a few of these on her last 3 or 4 starts but better ground here will help & the extra distance could well bring about the necessary improvement for her to run the best race of her life as her astute trainer would not be wasting the air fare to bring her over.
I have made no secret that I like Oriental Fox at huge odds 66/1 generally available, I will also back Ahzeemah who is most consistent & is overpriced at 20/1. (Both never really threatened)
30 3yo's face the starter in The Britannia over the straight mile. It looks a hugely competitive race as you would expect. Bow Creek shoulders top weight for Mark Johnston, he has missed engagements in pattern company for a crack at this, work to do from his mark but Johnston horses do so well here that you have to respect him.
Magnus Maximus has not been seen since causing a surprise in a sales race in early April, doubtful stamina & too much weight. Zarwaan will be fancied by many after a 2nd on bad ground at Haydock in a race that is the best trial for this, he looks extremely harshly treated on that run now & will have to be verging on pattern class to be winning here. American Hope has a lot of weight considering he has yet to race on Turf after spending all winter on the AW there are better handicapped horses than him.
Table Rock is a rare O'Brien runner in a handicap, he has won his last 2 starts in Ireland making the most of a reduced mark, he is up 12lbs here now & will need to be Group class to be wining (still entered in Irish Derby). Complicit looks badly treated on the form he has shown in England & has work to do. Chatez is up in the weights after making the millionaires in the Scoop6 at Haydock beating Zarwaan last time out, respected on that form but all his form so far has been on a softer surface.
Hunters Creek has been found out over further in better company on his last 2 starts, he has not added to his maiden win & looks harshly judged.
Hors De Combat missed the slog at Haydock which looks beneficial, he won in the style of an improving horse who should be capable of being competitive from his new mark, big player in this. On current form Lyn Valley looks in the handicapper's grip similar comments apply to Suzi's Connoisseur.
Third Dimension beat Table Rock in a maiden on his only start this year, judging by the latter's improvement Third Dimension must be respected from this mark & what looks an excellent high draw. Nezar was not upto better company in Dubai earlier in the year or in better company at the end of last year, this grade should suit better but he looks to have suffered in the weights for those runs.
Zampa Manos should not be good enough on what he has shown on Turf so far & neither should Mawfoor who has been on a downward spiral since his 2yo maiden win.
Pupil is potentially well in on form with Red Galileo & What About Carlo in the Haynes Hanson & Clark last year at Newbury, his subsequent runs were disappointing upped in grade but back down to a more suitable trip & grade I would not be surprised if he ran well. Beau Nash looks a little to high up in this kind of top handicap grade.
Legend Rising won nicely last time on soft ground at Chester, this is a step up & his best form has come with plenty of cut. First Flight has run 2 nice races so far this season on soft ground finishing a staying on 3rd behind Chatez & Zarwaan at Haydock last time, he looks very well handicapped at present & with better ground promising to suit he must go well. The only stumbling block is his lowest possible draw so we'll have to see which side comes out on top. Free Code ran a nice race last time giving weight to a promising rival who runs in pattern company early on the card, he looks still feasibly treated & from a high draw I would not discount at decent odds.
Ifwecan could be dangerous after bolting up at Musselburgh which was a big change in form, when Mark Johnston horses suddenly change find their form they can be worth following, chances. Dubawi Fun has just a lowly Southwell maiden win to his name, he was outclassed in what has turned out to be a poor crop of UAE 3yo's on Turf through the winter, his trainer is extremely talented but it would be some performance to get him to win this on his first start since March. Blimbi did too much in bad ground at Haydock last time, his previous win was decent at Musselburgh & he should be able to take a hand from this mark. Idea won a useful handicap at Kempton last time out in a decent time, his American pedigree suggests the fast ground should be a big plus for him, could be improving at the right time, player. Almargo bolted up under a positive ride at Epsom over 7f looking as though further would suit so it came as a surprise to see him over 6f last weekend at York he was duly outpaced, back up to the mile here he could be well handicapped on previous form with Blimbi, First Flight & Legend Rising, most interesting. Madeed wasn't up to Listed class on his seasonal debut, he has not been since April which is a worry as he was also off for a long time from his last 2yo race. His mark looks fine but whether he has the necessary experience for a race like this is debatable. The race Crowdmania won last time at Beverley can be ignored as he stole it from a promising horse who wasn't ridden to the best advantage, he is the choice of Joe Fanning so clearly is fancied but I think at least 2 of his stablemates look better than him.
Born In Bombay is extremely well regarded by connections, he made his Turf debut taking a keen hold last time at Newmarket before looking one paced at the finish behind Hors De Combat when in receipt of 7lbs, he now receives 9lbs from that rival & looks to have gained the better draw. He needs to relax otherwise his race is over but if he does he could be another to play apart. Mindyourownbuisness is improving & beat Crowdmania last time out at Yarmouth, big ask in this kind of race & could easily get lost.
Abbey Village won last time out in an ordinary race but he was carrying top weight that day so it was worth marking up, probably has more to prove than most in this company.
For all its a quality race I am struggling to see a bet & will leave it alone.
An excellent staying 3yo handicap ends the card with a deep field of 22 unexposed colts & geldings. Carlo Bugatti drops down to handicap after finishing down the field in The Chester Vase on bad ground, he has proved he is not up to pattern class already which he would need to be if he was to win this from top weight.
Truth Or Dare is helped by the talented Cam Hardie claiming 7lbs from his big weight & he needs all of that help as he no pretensions of staying this far.
I am surprised Stars Over The Sea is taking his chance in this under a big weight over 1m4f, he has developed into a good looking animal, ran much better last time out at Epsom but may find a few better off.
Windshear has been in grand form so far this season, he is still reasonably treated & should be involved.
Black Schnapps has improved in the early part of this year on soft ground, he seemed held from his new mark last time at Haydock & has work to do.
Elite Army is big stamp of a horse who came on from a decent first effort at Sandown to win at the same course last time, he was giving weight to 6lbs to Windshear on debut there is only a slight turnaround in the weights this time but on better ground I am a fan of Elite Army who is an improving horse.
Wrangler is on the upgrade with 2 wins on soft ground at Salisbury & a battling success with Black Schnapps, Fire Fighting & Fun Mc in behind last time out, needs to prove that soft ground is not as important as it appears to be, worth taking on.
Bremner is steadily coming down the weights but he does still need more.
Personal Opinion is weighted to reverse form with the improved Arab Dawn on their latest Newbury running, his form at Wolverhampton should stand him good stead for Ascot's sand based surface. Gold Trail is weighted to get closer to his Godolphin owner mate Elite Army on Sandown running 2 starts ago the problem for me is he looks quite one paced. Swivel has work to do from his current mark.
Arab Dawn completed his hat trick on the AW at Kempton last time out quite comfortably, he is up 10lbs in a much better race but he comes from a stable who do very well with this type of improving staying horse, cannot be discounted in current mood. Captain Morley won at Chester last time after a good run at the course first time out, he has to improve in this much better class of race.
Venezia is still a maiden who is making his first handicap start off what looks an ok mark, he has been in behind horses that have gone on to be rated between 84 - 97, he has struggled to get his head in front against the better class horses in maidens & that looks likely to be the case here.
Fire Fighting has now dropped to a decent mark after an awful run last time on soft ground at Doncaster, he was not beaten far by Wrangler the time before that. The better ground here will help him & he could just be the best of the Mark Johnston 4 in a race he has an excellent record in.
Art Of War faces a big step up in trip after breaking his maiden over 9f last time out, stamina looked his forte that day so he promises to stay but will he stay well enough to get involved. Zee Zeely has been kept fresh for this race after a decent win at Newmarket on his 2ndt start this season, he has an 8lb rise for that which could be conceived as harsh but looking at him he should be able to go on again & warrants respect towards the bottom of the weights.
Alex My Boy runs like a horse who needs much further racing in snatches, he was a disappointing 7th at Musselburgh last time & this demands more.
Trip To Paris has been disappointing on both starts this season & despite a slipping mark looks outclassed here.
Quite a fan of Elite Army 7/1 Bet365 (WON) in the last.
@fttfracing
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