Hello & welcome along to my new blog for this Saturday's action, having mostly failed to fire in midweek at Salisbury although those of you who follow me on Twitter will have hopefully picked up on Captain Cat as being the one to be on in the big race of Salisbury's season on Thursday after Tawhid my original selection had been declared a N/R Sometimes you just know a horse is going to win when you see them in the paddock; The Cat looked immense in size, scope, condition & fitness on Thursday.
I would encourage anyone who hasn't already been to Salisbury to go, its a fantastic, well run & friendly course which purveys a great atmosphere. For those who like to get close to the horses then you are treated to watching them canter out directly from the paddock from which you can get some great action shots & the finish is so close to the viewing public rather than another course or extra rails getting in the way. The stands provide stunning views of the course & the Wiltshire countryside. The paddock bar is a great addition for those who want a drink for most of the day & unlike other courses where the bars are hidden away those racegoers who like a few can still see the horses at close hand.
Onwards to Saturday's action where Newbury is the centrepiece meeting, after all the rain this week the ground is soft so stamina will be the order of the day in the big race The Geoffrey Freer over 1m5f. Having attended this meeting many times over the years this years has clearly been affected by the rain with field sizes poor & the overall quality low on what it has been apart from the Geoffrey Freer which has attracted a strong field of 11 which is unusual for the race as it is historically a small field.
The Denford Stud Stakes better known as The Washington Singer Stakes has just the 4 runners which is truth is about the norm for this race over the years. It has an illustrious role of honour with the likes of future 2000 Guineas winner Rodrigo De Triano winning in '92, Lammtarra won on his only 2yo start in '94 a year later he would retire an unbeaten winner of The Derby, King George & Arc. Haafhd won in 2003 a year later he would go on to win the 2000 Guineas & Champion Stakes.
Belardo steps up to a trip that will suit more than the 6f last time, he was taken of his feet early & finished with a rattle behind Ivawood. He is a sizable individual who will have benefitted from the small break, soft ground should not inconvenience.
Carry On Deryck won at 25/1 on debut at Newbury a couple of weekends ago, he is out of soft ground loving useful sprinter Mullein. Should stay but lacks the class of the big two in the field. Diaz has shown useful form on 4 starts so far, his dam New Girlfriend was twice a Group winner at sprint distances at Maison Laffite a few years ago & ran in many other pattern / Group races with little success. Soft ground could well see this son of Azamour improve & he could easily get between the big two in this.
I have been waiting to see Hawkesbury ever since his impressive win in a 4 runner Novice event at Doncaster at the end of June, that form has not worked out at all but you could fail to be impressed with a 7 length win. On his debut he was beaten by future Listed winner Limato so that was no disgrace. Soft ground is a slight worry as he is a fluid moving horse & although his sires stock do act on soft it wouldn't be there best surface, his dam also The Group 1 winning Nahoodh best form was good to good to soft. Allowing for no further rain I would hope the ground would end good to soft come tomorrow. If he gets beat then I will not cry into my cornflakes as he is all about next year for me.
Not a race to bet in.
A classy field of 11 go to post for The Geoffrey Freer at 2:40, the race has lost some its lustre as a St Leger Trial over the years with only two 3yo's winning in the last 10 years & only six 3yo's have won since 1990. It has been won by some top class animals over the years like Charlottown in 1966 (Derby winner that year), Ile De Bourbon in 1978 (had previously won King George), Champion Stayer Ardross was a dual winner in '81 & '82. Future Gold Cup winner Drum Taps won in '91, Champion National Hunt sire Presenting won in '95 & the excellent but ill fated Mubtaker (2nd in Arc 2003) completed a hat trick of wins in this race from 2002 - 2004.
5 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 5yo have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 3yo have won in the last 10 years.
1 x 7yo has won in the last 10 years
Weight: 8-8 - 9-5.
Rated: 108 - 117.
6 winners in the last 10 years had won on their previous start,
(10 winners in the last 10 years had finished in the top 4 places on their last start).
9 of the last 10 winners started at single figure odds between 11/10 - 8-1,
(5 favourites have won in the last 10 years).
2 winners in the last 10 years last ran in Princess of Wales's Stakes,
(1st & 1st).
2 winners in the last 10 years last ran in Glorious Stakes,
(1st & 3rd).
2 winners in the last 10 years last ran in Bahrain Trophy,
(2nd & 1st).
Pether's Moon heads them now carrying a Group 3 penalty for a ready win in The Glorious Stakes last time out, everything finally fell right for him last time after a string of placed efforts. First time headgear is interesting maybe that will sharpen him up as he wandered when winning last time. He will need more with the penalty & I wouldn't be convinced that the extra distance on soft ground is what he wants.
Cafe Society is a funny horse who has all the ability but doesn't always consent to using it as we saw at Goodwood behind Pether's Moon last time where he travelled well but his rider made a conscious effort to weave him in & out of horses yet he still just stayed on at one pace. Ground could have been fast enough for him even though he has won on good to firm so as a son of Motivator you would expect this softer ground to suit even though he has yet to race on it.
Camborne has not been in the same form as he ended last season in this time around but ground has come for him as he showed when winning a Group 3 at Newbury in September last year, all his best form is with cut so a much better run here would not surprise.
Girolamo to me just looks awfully slow & tripless, ground is clearly in his favour but he just struggles to get his head in front.
Rawaki has been running ok in Listed grade races but I would be genuinely surprised were he to be good enough in this type of race.
Old Globetrotter Red Cadeaux returns after his mid season break, he was 2nd in this race last year after a similar break. His targets remain another attempt at Melbourne in November (where he has been 2nd beaten a whisker in 2 Melbourne Cups) plus the other big international prizes that follow. While he acts with some cut I doubt its what connections would really like on his return but you can never discount this wonderful horse.
Seismos comes into this on the back of several disappointing runs this year, his season is clearly about Australia in November as well but you would have preferred if he had shown at least some spark in his races so far. He has form with Girolamo & is only marginally better but does have a very weak Group 1 to his name from last season & with ground in his favour he could be given a glimmer of hope.
Triumphant's biggest claim to fame was nearly upstaging his illustrious stablemate camelot in a Group 3 at The Curragh last May, since then he has been running in very poor maiden hurdles with little success until he broke his maiden at Tramore in April. No hope on his first start for Gary Moore here.
Willing Foe returns after a 455 day absence, he has been working well in the build up to his return & looks to retain all of his old enthusiasm. On his last start he won a course & distance Listed race by 6 lengths. Soft ground should not bother him & as a former Ebor winner he is respected on his return.
Seal Of Approval should be thrown on weight terms as a Group 1 winner on soft ground although we all know that was a poor Group 1 & the ground made a huge difference that day. She has to bounce back from a lifeless effort at Haydock back at the start of July & is best watched here.
The only 3yo in the line up is Somewhat who ran another good race at Goodwood behind Snow Sky & Windshear last time. He probably found the ground to firm last time & will appreciate the cut here, on his 3rd in The Eclipse he should be able to handle these older horses & as long as he stays which is a slight concern he should be involved at the finish.
At the prices I will once more go in with Cafe Society 16/1 E/W generally available with I think soft ground an advantage to him.
What should be the race of the day is The Hungerford Stakes Group 2 but it has attracted a very poor field in my eyes.
4 x 4yo have won in the last 10 years.
4 x 3yo have won in the last 10 years.
1 x 6yo has won in the last 10 years.
1 x 7yo has won in the last 10 years.
John Gosden has trained 5 winners since 1994,
(2 in the last 10 years).
Clive Cox has trained 2 winners in the last 10 years.
Adam Kirby has ridden 2 winners in the last 10 years.
Rated: 110 - 115.
5 out of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 places on their last start.
8 of the last 10 winners started at single figure odds between 6/5 - 13/2,
(3 favourites have won in the last 10 years).
2 winners in the last 10 years ran their last race in Lennox Stakes,
(2nd & 1st).
2 winners in the last 10 years ran their last race in Sussex Stakes,
(5th & 5th).
Comfortable Lennox Stakes winner Es Que Love bids to follow that success up here, he travelled like a dream that day off a strong pace over his best trip. Soft ground is massive concern as he only has one piece of form of note on this surface a staying on 3rd behind Maarek earlier this year.
Breton Rock has a huge chance of gaining a first Group race success on ground that is perfect for him, he has been campaigned sparingly so far this season with a view to the autumn ahead, he was last seen when a short head 2nd to old Penitent finishing in front of future Group 1 winner Garswood & Custom Cut (whom he beat in a Listed race at Haydock previously) who has just completed a hat trick in Listed & Group 3 company. He travels well off the pace & looks to have everything in his favour, the only potential stumbling block as where does the pace come from, hopefully its Professor who will go on.
On to Professor a much improved animal this year who races at his optimum trip here, he handled good to soft last time when most of his rivals were inconvenienced by it so you would have to wonder whether he really wasn't genuine soft going. I hope he'll be the pace in the race as otherwise it will become farcical.
Chil The Kite needs a good pace to aim at, he has come right back to his best on his last 2 starts, hacking up in a good handicap here earlier in the year before only just failing in the Royal Hunt Cup last time, yet to prove he is genuinely Group class he will get few better opportunities than tomorrow.
Gregorian won this last year defeating Soft Falling Rain, he is useful at around this grade but no higher, most disappointing in last week's Maurice De Gheest & this requires a bounce back although it is not the strongest Group 2 there has ever been so that is entirely possible.
It would be surprising if Producer ran so quickly after a good run in behind the impressive Captain Cat at Salisbury on Thursday, if he does than this trip is what he wants not the mile he has been asked to race over so far this year. Soft ground would be a concern though.
The sole 3yo in the lineup Brazos is not without hope on his best form, he has not been seen to best effect the last twice but ran well in The Jersey, after winning in good style in a decent handicap at Ascot the time before. Soft ground should improve him as a son of Clodovil out of a Petardia mare & in what is not the best of Group 2's he could get involved.
Like Breton Rock but won't be financially involved.
One of the big sprint handicaps of the year takes place up at Ripon, The Great St Wilfrid where a low draw a been key to success over the years. I have had a horse in mind for this for several months now & the price is excellent.
4 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 5yo have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 6yo have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 7yo have won in the last 10 years.
Weight: 8-9 - 9-4.
Rated: 92 - 99.
Draw: Stalls 1 - 11 have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.
Only 1 winner in the last 10 years was drawn higher than 11,
(Pepper Lane 2011; Drawn 17).
Stall's 11 & 10 have produced 2 winners each in the last 10 years.
David Nicholls & David O'Meara (Dual winner Pepper Lane '11 & '12) have trained 2 winners each in the last 10 years.
Daniel Tudhope has won the race twice in the last 10 years (Dual winner Pepper Lane '11 & '12).
7 winners in the last 10 years have finished in the top 4 places on their last start,
( 2 winners in the last 10 years won on their previous start).
7 winners in the last 10 years have started at double figure odds between 10/1 - 20/1,
(2 well backed favourites have won in the last 10 years,
(Baccarat 2013 9/2f & Markab 2009 7/2f)).
Shropshire was due to makes his seasonal debut in the Stewards Cup only to be taken out on the day. This is another huge ask for his first run & he has too much weight despite a handy draw. Spinatrix was an excellent 2nd last year under 8-10 she now carries 9-9 a mark of her progression in the last year. She has a brilliant course record & will set the pace but surely this is too much to carry for this game mare.
Captain Ramius was 14th from a similar mark last year & 4th with a bit less on his back in 2012. He's not shown much on his last few starts & despite the good draw has work to do. Another Wise Kid has been in grand form of late but has been done no favours by the draw, he was 2nd over course & distance last time in a race that is usually a good trial for this. Clear Spring won the consolation race last year & has improved since then hence why he is racing of a mark in the high 90's, he has yet to prove that he can win of that sort of mark. Supplicant bids to follow in his former stablemates Mayson's hoofprints, he finished placed in this race as a 3yo. Supplicant is no Mayson on what we've seen though & would need a huge effort from his current mark.
Bondesire has been in blinding form so far this year & with the help of her talented young riders claim she can be given a chance for a stable that know how to win this race.
Fast Shot didn't show in the Wokingham last time but previous to that had been in good form under his young female rider, they came fast & late to collar Barkston Ash in a course & distance handicap at the start of the year, there should be little between them on that running now.
Barkston Ash himself has been on my radar for this race ever since he finished 3rd in a good handicap at the course in 2013 behind Sandy Lane, he has improved markedly since then & has been in the form of his life this season winning twice & only finishing outside the first 3 on 3 occasions in 9 completed starts this year, he only knows one way of going hard out on the lead but unlike most sprinters he will battle all the way to the line. Forget his last run as he completely fell out of the stalls at Hamilton & was racing on the wrong side of the track. He has the perfect low draw to attack down the far side & I firmly believe he wins this.
Flyman has shown nothing on his last 2 starts & is best watched from his high draw despite his useful apprentice bringing his weight down to near his last winning mark. Fairway To Heaven was another to be pulled from the Stewards Cup last time, draw not ideal but has still got potential from his mark.
Majestic Moon didn't get involved in the big handicap at Ascot last time behind Heavy Metal after beating him the time before, the drop back to 6f should help this horse & he is respected from a good draw.
Colonel Mak is a regular in these big sprint handicaps over the years, when last seen in this race in 2012 & 2011 he was 15th & 6th respectively carrying 8-12, he is an infrequent winner though so perhaps his win at the course last time was his win for this season. Dear old Hitchens has been 6th in this race in 2010 & 2009 from similar marks as he is off tomorrow. His young apprentice brings his weight down greatly which will help but at the age of 9 its asking a lot from a bad draw to get involved.
Kimberella comes from the resurgent Dandy Nicholls stable who have a great record in this race, she has been an improved performer this year & is now asked to win the best race she has contended from a career high mark. Draw far from ideal either but now that Dandy's horses are running better I would not completely write her off.
Out Do is on my shortlist for the Ayr Gold Cup at the moment so I hope he doesn't pop up here, he should have won in an easier race last time over course & distance but he strikes me as the type of horse who likes the hustle n'bustle of these big field handicaps. Good draw & visored for the first time, I can see him running well finishing in behind for a good Ayr Gold Cup trial. Piper's Note won the race that Out Do ran in last time, an upwardly mobile sprinter who has won 3 times from 5 starts at Ripon but has been done no favours by the draw here. Confessional has been 17th & 9th on his last two forays into this race, well weighted on his best form he still looks to be best at 5f so this 6f will always stretch him. So Beloved is now with Ruth Carr after looking very mulish for Roger Charlton, talented individual but mind usually gets in the way, have to say never saw him as a sprinter but did run all right in that race Piper's Note won last time so wouldn't be totally without hope if Miss Carr has sweetened him up.
Tatlisu remains in excellent form & from the foot of the weights should be involved depending which side his jockey goes when they split, if he goes far side then he has a good chance, stand side then I would be concerned.
All about Barkston Ash for me 25/1 E/W Ladbrokes.
The major action on Saturday comes in the evening from Arlington Park in Chicago & thankfully for the first time in a long time its live on ATR from 21:45 so no more hunting around for live streams like I've had too over the last few years.
The American St Leger over 1m5f was basically invented for the Europeans with Marco Botti's Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock animals Jakkalberry winning the inaugural running in 2012 & Dandino winning last year.
Dandino returns to defend his crown not in the same form as last year which is the only worry. Moment In Time came back to form in a Listed race at Newbury last time, her previous North American form gives her a chance.
Eye Of The Storm from Aidan O'Brien's stable won a Group 3 only 9 days ago which is a worry for the shipping out to the US while Andrew Balding's Havana Beat appears to have settled in nicely judging by the pictures on Twitter this week.
Of the US horses only Big Kick has won at this kind of distance before, he won what used to be a top class turf race in North America back in the day the San Juan Capistrano Handicap Grade 2 at Santa Anita over 1m6f & he looks the biggest threat to end the European stranglehold. Hardest Core won a 12f Del Mar race last time but steps up in Grade here, The Pizza Man is improving having won his last 2 starts at Arlington the last over 12f in Grade 3 company finishing ahead of Suntracer who was 2nd to Dandino in this race last year. Admiral Kitten last year's Secretariat winner on this card has failed really to go on since then & steps up markedly in distance here.
Moro Tap & Infinite Magic will both struggle to stay on what they've shown.
Some good prices on offer on Dandino & the Euro's but I will leave alone.
The first of the Grade 1's is for 3yo's named after one of the greatest North American racehorses of all time Secretariat who won the Triple Crown in 1973.
Aidan O'Brien sends 2 over for this with most attention focusing on Adelaide who probably should have won last time in the inaugural running of the Belmont Derby, if he returns in that form he should take all the beating here.
Stablemate Belisarius's form is miles below what is required in this, his best run to date was in a lowly Roscommon Listed race where he finished 2nd.
Global View was disappointing behind Adelaide last time never landing a blow, previous to that he had been coming along nicely so could go ok.
Highball is the mount of Frankie Dettori & after just 3 starts is the most inexperienced in the field, he ran a fine race in The American Derby over this course & distance last time, he needs more in this field but that is entirely possible given the improvement he showed last time. General Jack has won his last 2 in minor events the last of them was at Indiana Downs over the mile, well beaten behind Global View on his last try at Stakes company tells you what's on his plate. Sheldon was 5th to Adelaide last time & there is no reason to see that form being turned around. Divine Oath won the American Derby over course & distance last time, previously he had finished behind the winner Bobby's Kitten & Global View over the mile at Penn National. The step up in trip suited him last time & he has a chance. Can'thelpbelieving had 1 run in Ireland for Tommy Stack before coming to the US, his form has been steadily progressive & it wasn't a bad in The Pennine Ridge Stakes on his penultimate start, he has since won an allowance at 10f at Saratoga, interesting at a price. Tourist is thought to be the best of the home team he has won his last 3 starts in minor company but they have been impressive & he should benefit from the extra 2f. Looking at the pictures that have been on Twitter this week he looks a decent sort.
This should be Adelaide's for the taking but will not be a bet race.
The big race for fillies & mares is The Beverly D Stakes over just shy of 1m2f, Europeans have won the last 2 renewals courtesy of Dank & I'm A Dreamer.
The overall disappointing Just The Judge has her first try at North American racing which I have always thought might just be her bag, she doesn't quite get home over this trip in this country but on a turning US circuit she just might. She is the best of ours in the field & if she produces her best then I think she'll win.
Euro Charline is our other representative, she has done nothing but improve this season starting off with 2 wins at Wolverhampton before progressing to good runs in The Nell Gwyn, 1000 Guineas & Coronation. She gained a deserved Listed win last time but surely stamina has to be a massive concern. Street Of Gold is massively outclassed on all known form. Emollient is a former triple Grade 1 winner who hated being restrained last time in the Diana at Saratoga previous to that she had been a good 2nd in The Gamely at the same track. Classy at her best & a big player if she gets out on the lead.
Stephanie's Kitten is another classy US mare who was 2nd in the Diana coming from behind but just failing, she is a former dual Grade 1 winner who just struggles to see out this distance in the very top class & she has never taken on proper European raiders before. Tannery was a useful filly back in the day in Ireland winning at up to Group 2 level for David Wachman, since she has come to North America she has done ok winning in Grade 1 company the once in a weak EP Taylor Stakes, she stays further but lacks the class of others. La Tia is useful in a lesser grade & was only 5th in this last year.
I'm Already Sexy is another taking a step up on the back of a Grade 3 handicap win at the course on her latest start, work to do.
Alterite was placed twice in Group 1 company in France last year before heading over the pond, she won a Grade 1 at Belmont before a good 3rd to Dank in The Filly & Mare Turf. She has been seen just once since when a down the field finish in The Diana at Saratoga when favourite. Classy enough to get involved if that run has brought her on & an interesting runner.
Sparkling Beam is a decent minor pattern performer in France on soft ground, no reason on pedigree why she won't handle a much faster surface but whether she can get involved with these top class fillies is another matter.
Somali Lemonade won the Diana last time making all in her customary style, she is a good filly but for me a bit below the best & this is her toughest assignment yet.
Just The Judge at 6/1 generally available looks huge.
The big race of the evening is in truth a big let down for a Grade 1 international race but hey it can't be brilliant every year. Assuming Hardest Core doesn't run twice in 1 evening it'll be just 6 runners that face the starter unless his aim actually is this race which would be strange as The American St Leger looks better for him. Smoking Sun has been aimed at this race ever since a fine 2nd in The Singapore Airlines International Cup back in May. He is a decent Group 2 winner in France who looks better than ever at the age of 5, ground is no issue & he has a huge chance of gaining a first Grade 1 victory.
Magician was well beaten & looked out of sorts in The King George last time, he had previously been a well beaten but staying on 2nd behind The Fugue on very firm ground at The Royal Meeting. On his last start in North America he won in stunning fashion The Breeders Cup Turf although in truth The Fugue had gone a tad too early. This 10f is his trip for me but the firm ground is a worry as is lacklustre last effort only 21 days ago, I for one would not take a short price about him.
Finnegans Wake bounced back to winning ways over course & distance last time in a Grade 3 handicap, he was 4th last year when looking outclassed.
Up With The Birds represents Canada, he had some top class form in the book winning The Jamaica Handicap at Belmont last October. He failed to live up to that form in 2 starts earlier in the year but perhaps he needed his 2 prep runs as back at Woodbine he ran a ready winner of The Nijinsky a month ago. Stamina is no issue as he has won at 12f's before, interesting at a price.
Real Solution last year's winner on the disqualification of The Apache (still cannot fathom) has clearly been aimed for a repeat, after his win here he was disappointing on his next few starts. He has been brought along steadily in 3 starts this term & he managed another Grade 1 win last time out in a funny race for The Manhattan at Belmont when the race rather disintegrated around him. Would hope one of the Europeans would be better than him this time around but has chances in a weaker race none the less.
Side Glance was an excellent 3rd last year considering he got stopped at a vital time, he has since proved stamina for this trip in Australia when he won The Grade 1 Mackinnon from the front. He was a good 3rd not beaten far behind Main Sequence last time at Monmouth in The United Nations, he is the only horse that can go from the front in this & if Spencer can reproduce the ride he gave him in Australia last year he has a real chance of getting a 2nd Grade 1 victory.
I have long been keen on Smoking Sun for this race & at Coral's standout 6/1 he is a bet but with the race cutting up so badly I would not be at all surprised if Side Glance 12/1 made all & took the sting out of his rivals.
Shame there are not more runners but I will most likely have a saver on Side Glance as well.
@fttfracing
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