Monday 18 August 2014

York Ebor Festival Day One: Juddmonte International Wednesday 20th August 2014

Hello & Welcome along to my first blog of York's Ebor Festival, this meeting encapsulates everything that is great about our game from an outstanding racecourse with excellent facilities with races that bring the cream of the crop out to do battle on the famous knavesmire.


The feature event on Day One is The Juddmonte International a race that has been at the head of its field but in recent years has grown into a worldwide spectacle.
The main focus of this years renewal is the return of dual Derby winner Australia a horse who still has a lot to prove in quite a few peoples eyes, Epsom was a mere formality in the end as it has been for so many O'Brien animals over the years. It looked a good Derby on paper but in the race there were only ever 2 horses in contention, Australia won as he liked but it would appear that he is just the best of what at present looks a bad bunch as only 2 horses have come out of the Derby & won since Arod (a minor conditions event at Leicester) & Western Hymn (Group 2 Prix Eugene Adam)



Since Epsom he completed The Derby double at The Curragh beating 2 low grade Stablemates & 2 horses that were no where good enough, it was in essence not a Group 1 let alone a Classic but an exercise gallop. Of course Australia can do no more than win these races & it is not his fault that the horses around him of his age are average at best or that his illustrious trainer labelled him 'the best horse we have had at Ballydoyle' like he has done to so many of the other stars in recent years. This is is his biggest test against some class older horses in Telescope & Mukhadram, he will face no gamer horse in training than Mukhadram & he will need to show something he has yet to show on the racecourse as yet...courage & fight as I firmly believe they will get him off the bridle in this race. If he wins on Wednesday of course then he can start to be labelled a champion. 
Telescope ran well in the King George travelling like a decent horse he has long been labelled as before letting down as if finding the ground a bit too dead for his acceleration to truly fire, he battled on with the resurgent Mukhadram for the places as they were both left in Taghrooda's wake, ground & giving away weight to a truly talented young filly seemed to be his undoing so it is a worry for Wednesday as he is again giving weight to the best 3yo colt of his generation however its interesting that Sir Michael Stoute would allow him to take his chance if he believed like the majority that Australia was unbeatable. Ground will be much more in Telescope's favour come Wednesday its just the trip as he has yet to prove that he can cut it 1m2f.




Mukhadram on the other hand is a 10f specialist who didn't quite get home over 12f in the King George but still ran his heart finishing a gallant 3rd. He will have a Ballydoyle pacemaker taking him on here but I cannot see that bothering him as Hannagan will not get into a protracted battle but will let them go on at their own pace while he sits in behind dictating the tempo for the rest. How Mukahdram is still 'underrated' is beyond me as if I had the good fortune to own a horse he would be the type you would want physically stunning to look at & down right consistent. Both horse & rider are better than ever this season, I can see Hanagan kicking Mukahdram in the belly early in the straight & making it a real test like he did in The Eclipse then we will see what Australia is made of.




Dante & French Derby winner The Grey Gatsby returns to York after floundering in the Longchamp mud last time, he has already achieved far more than connections could have expected this season. His French Derby looks as poor as The English version at present with just 2 winners coming from the race so far. A return to 10f will suit the horse better as he stayed it so well at Chantilly & in reality his form is not too dissimilar to Australia yet he is 3 times the price. I have underestimated him all season & I won't do so again even though he will will need more taking on the older horses here. 



Arod tries Group 1 company again after a minor win at Leicester, he looked awkward on the track the last time he ran at York before staying on again. His Derby 4th was just ok, he didn't really handle Epsom but was miles behind Australia that day. Can't see him getting involved in this at all.



Kingfisher looks the designated Ballydoyle hare, he finished a well beaten 2nd behind Australia at The Curragh last time after an awful Derby run. His form is well below what's required & I doubt he will annoy Mukhadram that much.  



  

I will be sticking with Mukhadram 6/1 Paddy Power / Boylesports / Ladbrokes to run them into the ground once more. 





The Great Voltigeur has lured in Derby runner up Kingston Hill as he bids to get a win out of what has so far been a frustrating season. I have been saying it for far too long now but soft ground really does look essential to this horse & anything without soft in the title is a big negative for me. He didn't have the experience or class to get involved in the Eclipse last time & honestly I am still doubtful that he stays 12f. He may have been 2nd in a Derby but I don't believe either the first or 2nd needed to truly stay that day to win as they were so far clear of an ordinary bunch. He is now taking on horses that are improving after lighter campaigns & that will be better suited by Wednesday's ground.   
Chief of those improvers is Snow Sky who battled on bravely to win The Gordon Stakes last time showing stamina & ability to handle firmer going. He is coming along nicely & there is no reason to think he cannot go well again here. 



Hartnell has won his last 2 races impressively showing stamina for 2 miles in The Queen's Vase & the ability to cope with the drop back in trip at Newmarket last time powering clear of Windshear, he drops back another furlong today & has 2 lengths to find with Snow Sky on Lingfield running back in May. Respected in current form. 
Aidan O'Brien saddles recent St Leger market springer Grandukeoftuscany & Indian Maharaja; Granddukeoftuscany has only had 2 racecourse starts making his debut at the start of June showing promise in what looked an ordinary maiden before coming out a few weeks later at the end of June to win a 12f Tipperary maiden by 19 lengths from the useful hurdling mare Gambling Girl by 19 lengths, the rest I'm afraid are trees but he could have done no more than win in that style. On that form though he is not worthy of being 6/1 for a Voltigeur & 12/1 for a St Leger so has to prove all the hype on Wednesday. 



Stablemate Indian Maharaja has not been seen since a disappointing run at Leopardstown back in March, clearly he has had issues since then & it will be some performance to take this on his return especially stepping up to a trip that he is far from certain to get. 
John Gosden has the best record of trainers with runners in this race this year with 3 winners in the last 10 years. This time around he saddles Marzocco who has been tried at trips varying from 1m2f to 2 miles so far this season. This may well be the first time that he gets fast ground to run on which being by American Turf sire Kitten's Joy I firmly believe is what he wants. Should get a good pace to aim at over a trip that will be perfect for him, he holds excellent claims. 
Observational was disappointing on his return from a mid season break last time, he never truly looked up for it, he was lazy in the parade & in the race. That run should have blown away the cobwebs & he still remains with potential. 
Odeon has still yet to learn to settle & looks a prime candidate for losing his manhood sooner rather than later. Cannot be backed until he copes better with what is going on around him. 
Postponed finally came good after a series of decent efforts in Listed & minor Group company when upped to 11f at Hamilton last time running out a ready winner. On his run style the further he goes the better he will be so this 12f looks made for him, one to take seriously now he has got his head back in front. 
Red Galileo is overall a hugely disappointing animal who is struggling in this class & needs a break from it.


Marzocco at 14/1 Bet365 / Skybet / BetVictor / Stan James looks an each way steal. 






The big 2yo race on Day One is The Acomb over 7 furlongs, the field this year looks strong & stacked full of potential. Basateen a thick set chestnut son of Teofilo heads the field, he was a fast finishing 3rd in a hot maiden on debut (already produced 7 winners next time including Basateen). He duly won his maiden by 8 lengths last time & looks well up to this grade. Chadic was well beaten behind Highland Reel at Goodwood last time & this race is no easier. Danny O'Ruairc has run well in 3 average maidens so far & would be better off in a Nursery instead of trying to take on some blue blooded animals in a Group 3. Similar comments apply to Dominada who has far too much on his plate in this grade. 
Dutch Connection steps up from a Nursery win at Goodwood last time, he travelled well into that race before quickening clear to win going away. The 2nd & 3rd have let the form down since which is a worry as this is a hot little race. 
Growl made a useful winning debut in a slow time at Ascot, he impressed many people that day with the ease in which he travelled into contention, step up in trip should suit, chances. 
Jamaica won his maiden at Galway in good style as an odds on shot should, he was again on his toes beforehand as he had on his debut when a fast finishing 3rd behind his stablemate Gleneagles. Will need to keep a lid on it here & must improve again to get involved in what looks an excellent race. 
Medrano has looked all about stamina in 3 starts so far his last 2 have come on ground with cut in it at Haydock. He stayed on to beat Salateen (re-opposes today) quite comfortably. This is a big step up & he looks a bit slower than the best of these. Misleading won well on debut in an ordinary race by Goodwood standards, not much to get excited in the pedigree so will need to improve again upped in Grade. 
Prince Gagarin is a half brother to Elusive Pimpernel who won this race in 2009, he himself won comfortably in a 3 runner Novice event at Newmarket a few weeks ago in the style of a very promising young horse. He improved from an excellent debut behind the already useful Nafaqa at Newbury previously. Has the stamp of a Group performer & already looks very amenable in his races travelling & possessing a useful turn of foot. 




Salateen broke his maiden at the 3rd time of asking with the minimum of fuss at Chester a couple of weeks ago, it was a slow time & a week race plus he has already been beaten by Medrano. Work to do on what he has shown but a good run would not shock entirely as his stable does so well at this meeting. 
Toocoolforschool won his maiden at Nottingham over 6f making all, a big scopey individual who should relish the extra furlong, he is entitled to have a go at Group company but does need to improve.





All over Prince Gagarin at 13/2 Paddy Power.  






Opening up the card is a spectacle at York a 5f sprint down the Knavesmire featuring all your old favourites. Historically you need to be drawn low over the sprint trips here.
Mass Rally heads the weights, dropping back to 5f for the first time since he was 2nd in this race in 2012 off a mark of 92. He won a 6f handicap with his customary late burst at the track in October last year off 103, today he races of 105 & has not been seen since a fine 4th in Group 2 company here in May. More than capable of this sort of mark & will have the strong pace to aim at. 
Caspian Prince will be that strong pace, he has had a brilliant season but last time found the move up to pattern class beyond him. Mark has crept up again & has to find more but hard to say he won't with the rate of progression he has shown so far. 
Ashpan Sam on the other hand does look held by his new mark & is best watched at present. Move In Time just got collared on the line in The Shergar Cup, he will want none of these showers to have any significant impact on the ground otherwise he remains on a fair mark & from a low with his stable in rude health he should get involved. 
York Glory has shown nothing so far this season & cannot be backed with any confidence at present even being visored for the first time. 
Monsieur Joe appears well in the handicappers grip after a good first half of the season. Goldream gained a deserved win just mowing down Move In Time last time after some great efforts this season, he is a reformed character this time around & I see no reason why he can't go close once more. Robot Boy is one of the young newcomers to top level handicap sprinting this year, after a facile win in The Gosforth Park Cup he has struggled from his new mark in good 5f races at Ascot the last twice. He has still run well in 3rd & 5th but each time when he has looked like winning it has not materialised so will need to come down again judging by those efforts. 
Racy reverted to type last time after his shock win at Ascot 2 starts ago, has always been a capable animal but just struggles to win & now he has won relatively recently he will most likely go back to not winning for an age again. 
Blaine never got involved in The Stewards Cup, he goes well at York though & dropping to 5f for the first time should not trouble him unduly, player from a high draw. 
You can forget Line Of Reason's run last time as he was carried left at the start by Secretinthepark at York, previous to that run he had been progressive rattling up a hat trick of wins at Thirsk , Curragh (top quality 50k Euro handicap) & back at York in a Class 3 where he won in the style of a horse who still had more to give. He has risen from 80 to his current mark of 99, has a great draw this time around & as long as he gets a chance to run then he has to be respected as he is on the up. 
Magical Macey is now back on his last winning mark & this speedy animal could take some catching from his low draw as long as the ground remains good, any firmer & you would be concerned about him handling it. 
Judge N'Jury showed there was life left in them old legs when a 25/1 winner at Nottingham last time out, should run his race again but this requires more back in this better grade against a whole host of younger faster animals. 
Free Zone showed his first sign of life in 6 starts behind Judge N'Jury last time leading for most of the way before tying up, he is on a winnable mark & could go well with that run behind him. Kimberella travelled like a dream on the stands side for a long way in Saturday's Great St Wilfrid before coming off the bridle & staying on at one pace for 7th, it still was a decent effort & there is no reason to think he won't be in there pitching again. B Fifty Two has always struggled of marks higher than 90 in the past & there is no reason to suggest that will change now. See The Sun has improved all season & ran well again when taking on his elders last time in The Skybet Dash finishing a good 6th, drop back to 5f will suit this trailblazer but the high draw could be more problematique. Bogart is undoubtedly well handicapped, he won this race last year off a mark of 97 carrying 9-7, this time around he is off a mark of 94 carrying 8-13. He has shown just glimpse of ability in the 6 starts that win but there was a flicker more last time, he showed up much better than on recent starts only tieing up in the 6th furlong, he is back at what is unquestionably his best trip on Wednesday & has a good draw to attack from. Secret Witness like Bogart is also well handicapped on his best form which has mainly come on the Knavesmire although 6f is arguably his best trip. The other 3yo in the line up is Peterkin; he pulled too hard last time out at Goodwood when a beaten favourite against his own age group, previous to that he had shown brilliant speed against his elders when a hanging on for a fine 3rd behind Racy. Bigger field & the better race should see him settle better & no reason he can't be involved from bottom weight.     

Incredibly tough race in which I will keep my money in my pocket.








17 old handicappers face the starter in the Fine Equity Stakes over 2 miles. 
Statutory heads the weights, he needs 3 miles to show his best so expect him to be joining John Ferguson at the end of the Flat season & winning round Huntingdon or Carlisle before too long. Edge Of Sanity was never involved on his English debut last time suggesting my first thought was correct that he is harshly treated by the handicapper over here. Totalize can be given a chance with young Megan Carberry taking 7lbs off his back which leaves him close to his last winning mark here at York earlier in the season. Big Thunder in truth was unlucky last time to get S'manga Khumalo in the Shergar Cup as the rider didn't know how to handle him or how to ride in 2 mile races, he will fare much better on Wednesday under regular pilot Luke Morris & is hard to keep out of the frame. The step back up to 2 miles will suit Lady Kashaan who has been consistent in her races of late although looking one paced at 1m6f. Mark has stayed the same as a result so stepping back in trip she is favourably treated on her neck 2nd in a good staying handicap at Ripon at the start of last year. 
Bantam went into my notebook after a great run at Ascot last time, she travelled smoothly into connection before fitness told on rain softened ground, she has long been crying out for this trip on fast ground so I hope the showers stay away & the ground remains good or gets a little faster. She looks well treated & is ready to strike. 
Saptapadi just doesn't win there's nothing more you can say about him. 
Eagle Rock loves York, from 12 starts at the course he has 2 wins & 5 placed efforts. He is close to his last winning mark although the 2 course wins have come in a slightly lesser grade than this. Frame contender at least. 
Dolphin Village goes up in grade & significantly up in trip, he is on form but whether he will truly stay this far is open to debate. 
Quest For More moves into a big time handicap for the first time, he looks all about stamina & is open to any amount of improvement at this trip. 
Itlaaq gained the first win of his career at 2 miles last time out at York being forced home by Kieran Fallon, no reason to suggest he won't go well again but faces a tougher task against better horses here. 
Gambol takes a big leap in class & distance, 2 miles really should suit this strong galloping son of New Approach who has looked slow & laboured after getting into contention on all his starts this year especially the last when upped to 1m6f.
Sir Frank Morgan was well beaten in this grade last time out as he had been the time before, he appears to have done his progressing for the time being. 
Spacious Sky will be all the rage with Fallon onboard for Master Irish handicap trainer Tony Martin, he ran twice at Galway on the flat where he was given far too much to do behind stablemate Quick Jack & then fluffed his lines on a couple of occasions over hurdles a few days later. 
Number One London is a thief who flatters to deceive on so many occasions before stealing your money with so dire efforts. 
Streets Of Newyork was behind Spacious Sky on the Flat at Galway last time looking extremely one paced, this kind of grade looks beyond him. 
Knightly Escapade is on the improve at present after a good win at Newcastle he followed that up with a good effort over course & distance, up in grade again. 

I think Bantam has been crying out for this trip & I hope she can provide Ed Dunlop with a double on the card. 






The racing doesn't get any easier on Day One as the last race is a 20 runner 6f Nursery. Hat trick seeking Mattmu shoulders top weight, he won well at Chester last time in good to soft ground, any rain that falls will be in his favour being by Indesatchel but has work to do under a penalty. 
Kibaar is an awkward horse who didn't appear to handle Chester that well last time when 2nd to Mattmu, previous to that he had won a similar Nursery over course & distance just being driven up on the line, can't be much more to give from his current mark. 
Prize Exhibit turned around Newmarket form with Enlace last time at Nottingham which was no real surprise as Enlace is from a limited ability family & had a hard race at Newmarket, Prize Exhibit benefited from a lighter weight last time & will struggle back up into a Nursery.
Midterm Break enters nurseries of what looks a decent mark, he had been well outclassed on his last 2 outings in good races & will benefit from this slight class drop, should be fine at 6f & respected. 
Geordie George looks on quite a harsh mark after being well beaten by Osaila last time & Aktabantay the time before. 
Izzthatright has won 2 nurseries already at a lower grade, new mark makes things tougher even with his apprentices claim. 
Burnt Sugar has to respected from a mark of 86, he bumped into 2 nice sorts before breaking his maiden easily at Lingfield. 
Denzille Lane was just denied of a lower mark by Kibaar here at York 2 starts ago but then failed to reproduce in another Nursery last time out. 
Mignolino is well regarded, he failed to land a blow in the Norfolk but as a result has been allotted a very favourable mark. Off since so most likely been given a bit of time & if ready to roll should get involved at the business end. 
Tereuntum Star was favourite to beat Fendale last time which proved misguided as Fendale won comfortably & heads to the Gimcrack, with that in mind Teruntum Star is on a great mark here with the step up in trip sure to suit. Thecornishassassin has work to do in this grade from this mark. 
Roossey will be very popular from the Willie Haggas stable from this kind of mark, he only one by a neck last time after racing keenly so if he settles better then there should be more to come. 
Burtonwood is back in trip after struggling in small field Newmarket Nursery last time, he has dropped to a mark of 82 as a result of some in behind runs in better class races earlier in the season & is blinkered for the first time. 
Typhoon Season duly obliged at Windsor last time despite the ground turning soft after an excellent first run in a hot maiden at Newmarket (same one that Basateen was 3rd in), he has been given a very favourable mark on those 2 runs & with better ground likely to suit he can get involved.
Felix Leiter won his lesser grade Nursery in the style of horse with more to come last time at Nottingham travelling smoothly in behind the leaders before running away from them, he is up 6lbs for that which is more than fair. He broke his maiden at York after pulling too hard for most of the way & is entitled to be respected at the bottom of the weights. 
Dark Profit has a very fair weight on 3 good maiden runs, Mattmu beat him on his 2nd start when both were carrying level weight (Mattmu who has improved since is now 1 stone 1lb higher) & on his last run he was run down by Acomb Stakes entry Misleading after travelling well into the race, yet another in with a big chance on Nursery debut. Majestic Hero has not been seen since finishing 14th to Hootenanny at Royal Ascot, he had previously won his maiden comfortably at Chepstow & on debut had finished behind Kool Kompany, has been let in with no weight on his back on Nursery debut. 
Kingsbridge was very disappointing on his Nursery debut at Ascot last time & must bounce back in a much better race. 
Uptight is straight into a Nursery after making a taking winning debut at Nottingham, form is just ok at present as only a couple have run from the race. He is a first foal & has a useful if unspectacular pedigree. The fact the handicapper has given him such a low mark probably tells us all we need to know but he could always have underestimated him.

I could back about 4 or 5 so it is best left alone for me.



@fttfracing





No comments:

Post a Comment