Hello & welcome along to my new blog, firstly I will start with an apology for my lamentable form over the past 2 weeks, I couldn't kick the stable cat at present so August is best forgotten for me personally. These times are sent to try us but I find the best policy is to take a step back as I have done since last week & wait until the storm passes. This Saturday's action is far from vintage after so much good action on one day last weekend it beggars belief that we have in truth a distinctly average one which needs a big meeting to carry it.
The recent spell of damp weather has not helped the situation but in reality the races just don't appeal to connections of real top class animals after such a busy month.
Sandown holds in traditional Variety Club day where the stars come out to mingle, the course has been saturated over the last week leaving the ground soft on the sprint course & good to soft on the round course (soft in the back straight).
Field sizes & the quality of horse has been affected due to the weather.
The feature event is The Solario Stakes over 7f which has 6 runners (2 more than last year at least). Won over the years by some classy animals including Kingman last year & Raven's Pass back in 2007.
Aktabantay is grabbing all the attention this year a big rangy son of Oasis Dream who just failed to catch Estidkhaar in a Group 3 at The July Meeting last time out. His trainer has said a bit of cut is what he wants & with the ground having dried out from the start of the week it should be perfect for him. He brings the best form to the table & should take all the beating.
I was at Newmarket when Future Empire made a winning debut, he is quite a rangy & compact individual who looked well forward ahead of his debut. He travelled well in the race always towards the front of the pack & won going away. The form looks strong with the 3 horses who finished immediately behind him all having won on their next start. He promises to be suite by some cut & must be feared although a slight negative is that his trainers runners have gone slightly off the boil in the last few weeks (similar to me).
Elm Park runs on Friday at Salisbury so will only run here if he is a N/R today.
Cock Of The North is exposed & I cannot see him turning the form around with Aktabantay on their last running.
Pallister was disappointing behind Highland Reel at Goodwood last time on his first foray into Group company, I would assume he didn't enjoy the fast ground so is worth another chance back on a softer surface here as he is clearly quite smart.
Lexington Times won a maiden that has turned out to red hot at Newmarket on his 2nd start beating 8 individual winners, he however has been most disappointing on both his starts since & at present looks well below the class required for a race such as this.
A race to watch rather than bet for me.
The other feature at Sandown is a fillies & mares Group 3 over a mile which has attracted just the 9 runners but they are headed by a hugely interesting runner in Andre Fabre's Godolphin filly Fintry; she has not been seen since winning the Group 2 Prix De Sandringham easily at Chantilly. She carries a 1lb penalty here as a result & has missed an engagement in The Coronation since but neither of those should prove a hardship, she holds excellent claims in a weak Group 3.
Audacia loves the mud & gained her first win in Listed company at Pontefract last time, entitled to go well again with conditions currently in her favour but work to do with Fintry on her best form. Nur Jahan represents a stable returning to form after a terrible time with viruses earlier in the season. She is only rated 69 & has only a win in a Southwell maiden to her name so this is clearly a massive jump in class.
Odeliz is a useful filly in this class having been placed on her last 5 starts in similar company, this represents a slightly easier Group race than she often runs in & she handle cut fine so has place chances once more & could finally break her Group race duck if the favourite runs below par. Zibelina is Godolphin's UK representative, she has not been since a disappointing 3rd in Listed company back in May, she was also 4th in this race last year after winning her first 3 starts. Going ok at home without setting the world on fire she may well need this after her absence.
Zurigha generally struggles on turf & on ground with cut, even her best would probably just reach a place here.
Diamond Dove comes over from Germany after showing good form in her homeland 2nd in The German Oaks last time not quite lasting home & earlier in the year a good 3rd in The German 1000 Guineas. Drop back to a mile looks sure to suit although she must settle as she has been known to pull hard in her races, needs respecting nonetheless & looks overpriced at present.
(If you want to find out more about German Racing then please follow @GermanRacingRev on Twitter).
Lily Rules has been well put in her place on her last 2 starts in The Oaks & a Listed event at Newcastle, she drops back to the mile here & it would be a surprise if she were good enough.
Water Hole is unbeaten in her last 3 starts, she has won her last 2 starts in handicap company in the style of an improving filly showing she is tactically versatile by making all in a small field on soft ground at Newcastle last time. This is a big step up from her first winning mark of 80 she now races of 92 & is in a Group 3 but her excellent trainer would not consider running her if he thought she was not up to it so she is respected.
Fintry should be winning this while a big run from Diamond Dove would be no surprise but again I won't be getting involved.
The most competitive of the races on the Sandown card is a 1m2f handicap at 15:50, recent easy Newmarket winner Clon Brulee heads the weights & this would also represent young Mikey Ennis's biggest ride to date as he takes the ride for Godolphin taking 7lbs off his back. Classy at his best & effective on ground with some dig he must go well if he remains in the same form tomorrow.
Tres Coronas will appreciate the softer surface but remains to high in the weights after his early season exploits.
Balty Boys is another to have suffered after some good recent runs, this trip also stretches him. Spas Dancer goes well her at Sandown with 3 wins over the mile, he doesn't quite truly stay the 10f well enough to be a danger for me.
Ajmany struggles to win & can often throw in the odd stinker, showed a better attitude last time but was still out battled on the drive to the line, a slightly reduced mark will help here & he should also enjoy a bit of cut in the ground.
Forgotten Hero won nicely over this trip & ground at Ascot last time, he has been raised 7lbs for that & has work to do off his highest mark to date although he will be staying on when others have cried enough.
What About Carlo is perhaps a surprise runner to many after his shocking effort in Group company last week but I can see the reasoning. I know he has come out of the race well almost as if he never had a race which is how it panned out in the end. He tried to lay up with them over the mile but was always struggling to go the gallop in his usual fluent style & surprisingly as a course winner failed to handle the bends at Goodwood last week. He has already proven he handles 1m2f & a bit of cut. Reunited with Jimmy Fortune I see no reason why he can't get involved as I still firmly believe he will be a genuine Group horse next season.
Tinghir has a big pull in the weights with Clon Brulee on their latest Newmarket running which was his first start since May, if he improves on that here he must get involved. What About Carlo's stablemate the consistent mare Running Deer is also a contender, she has progressed from marks in the high 70's to now race of 90, a return to 10f on softer ground will see her to better light than the 9f on fast ground at Goodwood last time where she still ran well to finish 4th. The booking of Kieran Fallon takes the eye & she is feared.
Busatto runs every week at present & each time he struggles so I cannot consider him here. Viewpoint has been struggling for awhile now, he is below his last winning mark, ground is in his favour & young Cam Hardie takes off another 5lbs yet I would still not consider him until he shows a spark of life again.
Moonday Sun seems high enough at present & stamina has yet to be proved for this trip. Mount Shamsan didn't have to improve to break his maiden last time in an ordinary race at Ripon, faces a stiffer task this time on his first handicap albeit from a lowly mark & if short enough for me. Connections of Calm Attitude would most likely have been after more rain as this filly steps up into a top grade handicap for the first time.
Treasure The Ridge has won his last 3 starts over further in a lesser grade & faces a massive step up up here.
Rydan has shown good course & distance for this season but judged on his last 2 runs is in the handicappers pocket & this is his toughest test to date.
He may have disappointed last week but he has won me enough money so far this year to go in again on What About Carlo 14/1 E/W Boylesports over what I believe is his best trip.
Chester has a decent card as always on this most average of Saturday's with a couple of good handicaps opening up the card. My main focus is the Listed Handicap over 1m5f at 15:30; Whiplash Willie returns to action after missing several engagements due to the ground over the last few months. He goes well fresh & despite a welter burden should remain competitive. Unsurprisingly Gabrial was not sighted in the Ebor last week over 1m6f, all his best form is at the mile but his owner is clearly quite desperate to get him to Melbourne in November, if he is to get this trip then Chester is the place although this softer ground is not his bag. De Rigueur is another Ebor also ran, he had been in decent form until last week. This is easier but he has work to do from this mark.
Noble Silk didn't make it into the Ebor, he has been in good form this year with places in a good handicap at Haydock & the Northumberland Plate. If he handles Chester he will go close. Special Meaning is a useful minor Listed animal against her own sex, has to prove she can do it against the boys but on the plus side she should have an uncontested lead. Livia's Dream is a similar filly to Special Meaning but not as a good so she has work to do despite the good form of her stable.
Big Orange is a huge unit who has not been seen since he ran his heart out in 4th in The Queen's Vase at The Royal Meeting, one would assume he jarred himself on the firm ground that day & has been given plenty of time to recover. Drop back in trip should suit as should the ground, the only negative I can see is whether he handles the tightness of Chester.
Been waiting for Big Orange 8/1 (WON) BetVictor (looks huge) since The Royal Meeting & as long as he handles Chester he should go very close.
Beverly hosts one of its big races of the year The Beverly Bullet over the flying 5f, 10 runners contest the race this year where a low draw is often key.
Mirza returns to these shores after a Listed win at Deauville at the end of July, decent at his best when the mud is flying he will surely struggle on this faster surface.
Rocky Ground has failed to go on since his surprise Listed win at Windsor at the start of June, faster ground should help as will the return to this course where he won before but the penalty makes life harder. Addictive Dream has a good draw in 2 for a front runner & if he gets out on the lead they might not catch him on his first start for his new trainer. Old Kingsgate Native has all the ability but now has not won in his last 11 starts, this easier than his last start but the draw has not been kind.
Line Of Reason ended up on the wrong side at York on his last start after being took out at the start on his penultimate run, previous to that he had been progressing rapidly, player from a good draw. Pearl Secret drops into a grade he should be fine in after failing to set the world alight as he was expected to this season, ground has always been & will always remain my major worry with this big strong powerful but quite fragile animal, he just doesn't seem to handle the firmer surface as well & unfortunately he has that again here tomorrow. On a soft surface I would be confident he could win & I still believe a Abbaye in October will be his race. Da 'Quonde has not been seen since a 3rd in Listed company to Steps 91 days ago, this firmer ground is a worry for her as well on her return from a break. Midnight Dynamo will need to race faster than she has ever done before to even keep up with these speedsters & is set to struggle.
Willbeme races from a career high mark after she annihilated poor opposition over course & distance a few starts back, upped in grade on her last start she was not disgraced behind Ladies Are Forever & is not completely ruled out.
Mecca's Angel looked as if she could carry all before her at the start of the season with 2 easy wins at Thirsk & Hamilton on soft ground, stepped up to Listed grade on her last start she took a fierce hold so as a result she faded over the 6f towards the end. Drop back to 5f will help but does need to show she can handle a faster surface.
Not a race I will be getting involved with.
@fttfracing
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