Hello & welcome along to my blog, thanks especially to those of you who have continued to read even though my selections have been running like the proverbial drain.
A busy late summer Saturday awaits with the final day of York's #EborFestival taking centre stage ahead of a quality card at Goodwood in the afternoon & Windsor's big meeting of the year featuring The Winter Hill Stakes taking place on what will hopefully be a gorgeous Saturday evening by the Thames.
I am back on @betracingnation this Saturday between 10am - 11:30am on Sky 212 so once again I hope you can all tune in.
The race the last 4 days at York has been named after is finally here, The Betfred Ebor a highly competitive 1m6f handicap on genuine fast flat racing ground (well hopefully as long as no more significant rain falls overnight).
Whiplash Willie is currently heading the weights although he is surely a hugely doubtful runner on this ground, a big horse who has had leg problems over the years connections will not risk him unless there is significant rainfall.
Pallasator is a huge horse who is built to jump the puissance fence at The Olympia horse show yet is pretty smart on the level. He walks terrible in his slower paces but in his fast paces he is a relentless galloper. Although he won on good to firm at Ascot on his last start I would still be concerned that such a big horse who's best form is on a softer surface could produce to top drawer performances on fast ground especially under the welter burden of 9-10, no horse has carried more than 9-4 to victory in this race since the mighty Sea Pigeon carried 10st to win in 1979.
Clever Cookie looked a horse on the up on the level earlier in the year but he was off incredibly generous marks considering his hurdles form, he was well held in 7th last time out over a trip that was too short for him so despite the step up being a help he needs more off this mark.
I honestly haven't a clue why Gabrial is in the Ebor let alone running, he is a useful miler who stays no further than 9f. He is half brother to Intense Touch who runs earlier on the card & has already proved stamina for 1m6f but Gabrial is an entirely different animal, on his form he races & looks like a miler so I cannot fathom connections thinking that he will get 1m6f.
Mutual Regard was a useful handicapper for Sir Mark Prescott over 2 miles or further last season, his form this year received a boost on Wednesday when Edge Of Sanity who beat on his seasonal debut won at York & his 3rd in a Listed event thereafter reads well. However he looks handicapped upped to his best even allowing for the excellent Louis Steward's claim.
Bold Sniper has been crying out for this sort of trip all his life, he is a lazy hard ride who will make Ryan Moore earn his riding. Clearly he is talented but has no room for manoeuvre off this mark.
Repeater has the undoubted class to get involved but whether he fancies it is another matter, could not consider him in the slightest.
Sueigoo has been in grand form this season winning a Chester Cup & finishing 2nd in an Northumberland Plate, those extreme tests seem to have brought about the improvement & he now races off a mark that leaves him vulnerable.
De Rigueur has been aimed at this since winning the Old Newton Cup on rain softened ground at Haydock, seems adaptable as regards ground although no doubt that some rain would help, another with little room for error from this mark.
Nearly Caught has missed so many engagements this summer due to the fast ground, rain came on Thursday night so the ground has changed to good which will be fine for him although if its a dry day again on Friday it will quicken up so he would need more rain on Friday as its clear from the amount of times that his talented trainer has taken him out (last 3 starts) that he doesn't fancy him on it. If he was to run then he is a well handicapped talented individual who has a big handicap in him.
Sir Walter Scott is hard to weigh up, only 1 run so far for Luca Cumani when a decent 6th over a trip too short in company that was too hot, only 3 runs so far in his life he remains with potential although he seems to have been handicapped on that rather than form.
Aussie Reigns deserves to win a decent race if not least for his consistency, he has finished in the top 6 places on 18 of his last 22 starts. As a result the handicapper will not relent so even from a slightly reduced mark of 99 he still has work to do over a trip that should suit.
Great Hall has had the shrewdies talking ever since his 3rd in a slowly run trial for this that Continuum won (see pic beige colours nearest), it was the best race he had run for a very long time on debut for new connections & he was struck over the head by a rivals whip in the closing stages but I wouldn't say that he looks well handicapped as a result. 2 miles seems sure to suit as do hurdles over the winter & on all known flat form he is just not up to this class of race, highly tried as a 3yo (9th in The St Leger) & he also had 2 well beaten runs in Dubai in the early part of the year, he's just not for me.
Dare To Achieve won a Listed handicap at Hamilton on his seasonal debut from a mark of 94, the race fell apart & he was raised for that, as well as not handling Epsom last time his new mark looked beyond him. He has only been dropped 1lb here & although the trip may suit he looks handicapped out of it.
(see pic below yellow colours finishing behind Remote).
Elidor wasn't given a hard race over 2 miles for the first time at Ascot last time when well beaten, he is capable off his mark & stamina looks assured. He could easily go well at a price.
Wadi Al Hattawi hacked up on his seasonal debut at York earlier in the season over 12f travelling smoothly & quickening clear. He then went to Ascot in a hot race behind Arab Spring where he pulled too hard & was left with too much to do, he was short of room a couple of times in the straight but still ran on suggesting he is capable of his new mark. This has been the aim ever since & he has no stamina worries for me as his dam has produced winners up to 12f especially when crossed with a staying sire such as Wadi's Dalakhani. Stable has won this race last in the twice in the last 10 years & he looks to have an excellent chance at a good price.
Van Percy won one of the best trials for this race at Goodwood wearing down his less than genuine opponent Havana Cooler. Good honest & consistent at best, should be involved.
Retirement Plan finally put it all together when winning impressively stepped upped to 2 miles on rain softened ground at Ascot last time. Raised only 5lbs for that he can remain competitive, dropping back slightly in trip should not inconvenience although this is the toughest field he has faced.
Ted Veale was 4th last year from this mark, he had a in & out season over fences last season in top company. Won last time in a beginners chase at The Galway festival & reverts to the level here.
Mighty Yar a fine big grey horse completes the field of runners guaranteed a run, he seems best on a firm surface, his form at the moment is relatively inconsistent as he follows a good run by a bad run. Last time was one of his good runs with a strong 2nd to the younger Kings Fete at York, on breeding he should stay but its worth remembering that on his only try at the trip earlier in the year at Nottingham he was a well beaten 7th looking as if his stamina was not so assured as first thought although the ground was also most likely as much to blame. Player if he has his 'A' game.
Am keen on Wadi Al Hattawi 14/1 E/W Stan James / BetVictor to win again at York.
Opening up the final day at York is The Strensall over 10f, its has attracted a rather odd field if truth be told. The in form Custom Cut goes for a 4th win on the spin. He has yet to run over this distance although he ought to stay. Fast ground is a worry as his best form is with plenty of give. Graphic is a highly consistent animal who is hard to pass, trip is a slight concern as he has not tried it as yet & does not really look like a 10f animal but respected for his attitude alone. Elleval is a much better horse on the Tapeta or artificial surfaces & has yet to match that form on Turf, will at least.
Farraaj has been in tremendous form in top handicaps winning the John Smith's Cup well last time, is a previous Group 3 winner of the Winter Derby & must hold outstanding claims here. Flying The Flag is an Ballydoyle cast off that has ended up with Mike De Kock. Last seen when upstaging a better fancied stablemate in a Group 3 over 10f over a year at The Curragh, he has much to prove on his first start for the master South African trainer. Trade Storm has been overrated & overhyped for far too long now, he is just not as good as his one piece of Carnival form from 2 years ago when he beat Musir in a Group 2, ever since then he has faced incredibly tough tasks that he is not up to. This is much more realistic & also a relatively poor Group 3 on the ground he loves over a trip that he should stay so he has a chance although I wouldn't expect him to deliver on that.
Lady Lara is worth a try at this trip but faces a huge task taking on the boys here, she is just an ok filly who is about Listed class.
Not a race I would be getting involved with.
The junior Ebor that is The Melrose handicap is perhaps lacking a little this year with the top horses like Alex My Boy (rerouted to the St Leger trial at Goodwood) who were entered at the 5 day stage not taking up the entry but we are still left with some intriguing runners.
Unbeaten in his last 3 starts Connecticut has looked a potential Group horse & he will need to be to defy his new mark. His trainer has won this twice in the last 10 years so he must be respected. Urban Moon was held in The Ulster Derby last time & has plenty on of this mark. Rocket Ship is steadily improving winning his last 2 starts by a combined total of 15 lengths, lets not get carried away though he was entitled to be winning as the company he was keeping was lowly as was his mark. He is now much higher in by far the best race that he has tackled & would not be for me.
Our Gabrial received a masterful ride for Oliver Peslier last time out at Ascot to lead on the line, the step up to 12f made a huge difference & extra 2f should suit him down the ground, player. Captain Morley was a decent 3rd to Elite Army at Ascot last time, extra 2f should be ok for him but I would be worried that he has little left from his mark. Battersea made the most of a lesser mark last time winning nicely at Ascot over 12f, there is hope on pedigree that he wants this far (his half brother Gitano Hernando was a Grade 1 winner in the US at 10f & his other half brother Sizzler has run well up to 2m4f finishing 3rd in this years Queen Alexandra) & he needs to find more in a better race but the extra 2f could help .
Farquhar has a turnaround in the weights with Connecticut on previous course running but does he truly have as much potential as that rival? He ran ok last time staying on in his own time suggesting this trip would be ok for him.
Adventure Seeker was found in a better race at Goodwood last time & has work to do. Penhill won a race at Ripon that has produced the winner of this race twice in the last 10 years by 6 lengths on soft ground last time, improving sharply & not to be underestimated. Fiery Sunset broke his maiden at Lingfield in an ordinary maiden last time beating a horse who let the form down badly at Salisbury last week. Trip will suit but likely to struggle in the class. Vent De Force was well beaten upped to Group 3 class last time off the back of 2 strong wins at this trip in soft ground. Still plenty of room for improvement from this mark but ground is a worry.
Notarised is unusual for a Mark Johnston animal as he has not won for ages even after a few bad runs he has always a couple to good, trip fine but lacks the class to win this type of race. Sebastian Beach is a cracking big stamp of a horse who will make a lovely hurdler. He ran well under a big weight at Salisbury on this ground last week but in the end was well held. Up in class here over a trip that suits with no weight on his back & can get involved. Uradel is hard to way up on his first start for Willie Mullins, he won a 11,5000 Euro claimer last time out previous to that he had looked one paced in a 12f handicap (the winner was 2nd in a Listed event at Deauville on Sunday).
From Frost was well beaten by Our Gabrial at Ascot last time, still only has 2 wins at Southwell to his name & doesn't appeal. Innocent Touch is a half brother to Gabrial who runs in The Ebor later, he stays well on what we have seen so far when just getting nabbed over this trip at Chester 2 starts ago, this tougher.
Fun Mc is a horse I have followed for a while now, this trip is sure to bring out the best in him on this fast ground. He ran extremely well upped to this grade at Goodwood last time staying on through beaten horses, blinkers on should sharpen him up & off a mark of 80 there is so much more to come. Mantou steps up in grade & trip both look a problem. Kashmiri Sunset will appreciate the trip but surely on what we've seen is not up to this company.
Quite fancy Fun Mc 28/1 E/W Bet365 at a price to get involved.
The big 2yo race on the final day is The Gimcrack which in recent years has been won by horses that go on to be no more than fair. This year's renewal has that same look about it. Norfolk winner Baithe Alga heads them now carrying a 3lb penalty courtesy of that fluent success. Break since may bring others closer but respected none the less. Accepted is unbeaten in 2 starts in Ireland over 6 on debut & 5f in a Listed race next time, form looks fine & respected. Ahlan Emirati has been beaten in Group company on his last 3 starts last time at Goodwood over 7f, drop back will help & on his Curragh 2nd to Kool Kompany he has a chance. Aussie Ruler is still a maiden & for all he is consistent he would be a surprise winner here.
Beacon didn't get the best of runs last time when expected to win at Goodwood, classy type but telling that Hughes goes elsewhere to ride today.
Fendale has done nothing wrong in his 2 wins so far looking professional & classy, has been pointed at this for some time. Glenalmond has only a debut win to his name at Ayr in a slowish time, form is unspectacular but he is a full brother to Group 1 winner Wootton Bassett & stable did have Toocoolforschool run extremely well earlier in the week.
Jungle Cat has been beaten on his last 2 starts by Ivawood in good company, he faces nothing like the class of Ivawood here & deserves a decent win.
Muhaarar didn't get home over 7f last time at Ascot previous to that he had finished just behind Jungle Cat at Newmarket, chances.
Teruntum Star is held by Fendale on Musselburgh running & looks up against it here.
The Great War has yet to live up to his lofty price tag looking outpaced & mentally not ready for the challenges that 2yo Group races pose. Has been given time to mature since Newmarket & was pulled out of The Curragh due to ground 12 days ago which will have done him no harm. Type to progress with racing & may run better on Saturday.
Am a fan of Fendale 10/1 generally available to upset the applecart.
Down at Goodwood its Celebration Mile day add to that a 2yo Group 3 & a minor St Leger trial with some interesting runners.
The 2yo fillies open up the card in The Prestige Stakes;
Astrelle has won her last 2 starts in a lesser grade being pushed out to win a Nursery on rain softened ground at Newmarket last time, work to do up in grade but is progressive. Bonnie Grey has struggled in Listed grade on her last 3 starts, this is not as tough but she still has work to do. East Coast Lady confirmed her debut to no fluke when winning nicely under an astute ride on the best side of the track at Newmarket 2 starts ago, limitations were exposed in Nursery company last time though.
Efflorescence was scratched from The Sweet Solera after the rains came, her debut win was decent & she is worth a go in this grade. Stable has been very in & out so far this year which is concerning. Malabar followed up her excellent run in The Albany by breaking her maiden back at Ascot on her last start, at least this class & the one to beat.
#Mystic And Artist won easily in soft ground at Ayr last time in an incredibly slow, on what she has shown so far she is well below what's required here.
Publilia won her maiden readily ar Hamilton last time in decent style, form is again below what's required. What A Party has won her last starts well at Yarmouth & in Nursery company at Lingfield making all. Is underrated on what she has shown as her form is not that bad even her maiden runs are decent, could easily surprise.
Zifena did me a favour on her last start winning a good quality Nursery which is looking decent form, steps up her & entitled to improve for the extra furlong so no reason she cannot get some black type.
Not a betting event for me.
The big race of the day at Goodwood is The Celebration Mile won by some top class horses over the last few years, this years renewal lacks the real class of previous years but is still interesting. Recent impressive Salisbury winner Captain Cat returns quickly, he looked a million dollars that day & duly won handsomely if he remains in that form just 9 days later than he will take some beating.
If Belgian Bill can win a Group 2 after so many near misses in big handicaps then there is hope that I can still win the 100 metres at the Olympics...surely he is not good enough in this grade. Chil The Kite was disappointing in The Hungerford last week, he is still yet to show he can make the grade in Group races.
Emell is not up to this grade & you would assume is a pacemaker for stablemate Producer who was easily brushed aside by Captain Cat at Salisbury then 2 days later finished last in The Hungerford. He is not a miler for me & won't be winning this. Four improving 3yo's make up the field (3yo have won 4 of the last 10) headed by Bow Creek was 3rd in The Thoroughbred over course & distance last time. He was impeded by the wayward Hors De Combat (re-opposes here) but in truth was beaten at the time. Needs more against his elders now.
Hors De Combat for me should have won that race last time but for his waywardness which he had shown little sign of that before which is a concern, should get the oace to aim at again so if he can stay straight he should be involved.
Master Carpenter has had an excellent season & won in Group 3 company over in France the time before last. Acts on most ground but would prefer more cut.
I've made no secret of the regard I hold What About Carlo in, he missed the race that Hors De Combat & Bow Creek ran in last time due to the fast ground. A mile is fine for him in a strongly run race which this looks likely to be & he has little to find with his fellow 3yo's on their collateral handicap form, long been thought of as Group class he can get seriously involved in this as apart from Captain Cat the older horses are not top class.
Can't go against What About Carlo 25/1 E/W Paddy Power / 888Sport / Unibet who I am convinced can win on his first attempt at Group level.
The Listed March Stakes over 1m6f should really only concern the three 3 3yo's the much improved at this trip Alex My Boy, the highly regarded & talented Kings Fete & Forever Now who was 3rd in Group 3 company last time. They all still have St Leger aspirations so it will need a big performance by one of them here to head towards Town Moor. The improving Miss Marjurie deserves her chance in pattern class but has found some tough young opponents to take on. Alwida will enjoy the 1m6f but not the company similar comments apply Blue Surf who is a decent handicapper but struggles in a higher grade. Songcraft is the best of the older horses & will keep the young ones honest at least. Biographer has been a huge disappointment for a long time now, he makes his comeback after finishing down the field in Group 2 company back in May over 2 miles. He prefers soft ground & has it all to prove after so many disappointing runs.
A race to watch with a view to future targets.
Windsor's big race of the year takes place on Saturday evening, it has rather cut up from the 5 day entries which is a shame.
Former triple Group 1 winner Al Kazeem who returned from a aborted Stud career heads the field. He ran alright on his return when 4th in a good quality Newbury Listed event, it didn't prove that he is still up to the grade however & he is worth taking on again here. Clearly if he still has any of his old ability then he wins but its always a doubt how much they bring back to the course after having been let down to become a stallion.
Bayrir returns to European racing after failing to set the world alight down under last year & early this. On his very best form he is class as last year's win in The Secretariat Stakes Grade 1 at Arlington shows, he followed that up with a good 2nd in The Prix Niel, fascinating to see what he can bring to the table.
Grandeur is another runner returning to our shores after 3 straight defeats in Grade 1 company at Belmont Park in the Man O'War, The Manhattan (given a poor ride) & a head defeat in The Grade Bowling Green over a trip that stretches him. Is a useful horse in this country as well although he has not won above Listed company here & usually finds one better than him. This represents his best chance of a Group 3 win though as it is well below normal Group 3 class.
Presburg has a mountain to climb on official figures & although bad handicappers have won this before it would be a huge surprise if he managed it. Similar comments apply to Complicit who has been plying his trade in France mostly, assuming he's in there to make the pace for stablemate Gifted Girl; who must have a cracking chance of gaining a first Group success here; she ran much better at Salisbury last time & can be considered unlucky as she didn't receive the greatest of rides getting stuck in behind travelling well before getting out when all hope had gone, she ran on well for 2nd. It was a step back in the right direction & on her Beverly D Stakes 2nd last year she has a cracking chance. Zambucca has been awfully disappointing since coming to the UK & has no chance on what he has shown so far.
True Story is becoming an enigma the visor didn't help much at Haydock last time & he didn't really pick up in a strangely run race, it would appear that even Kieran Fallon has given up on him. However in his favour tonight is of course the Grade for a Group 3 its poor & mainly its his stables outstanding record in this race 3 wins in the last 10 years (7 overall) basically usually whatever Saeed runs wins this race.
Truth Or Dare completes the lineup & on early season form has no chance with True Story, his recent form would suggest that he is not up to this grade either.
Betting will be fascinating in this & will dictate whether I invest some money on the race.
Whiplash Willie is currently heading the weights although he is surely a hugely doubtful runner on this ground, a big horse who has had leg problems over the years connections will not risk him unless there is significant rainfall.
Pallasator is a huge horse who is built to jump the puissance fence at The Olympia horse show yet is pretty smart on the level. He walks terrible in his slower paces but in his fast paces he is a relentless galloper. Although he won on good to firm at Ascot on his last start I would still be concerned that such a big horse who's best form is on a softer surface could produce to top drawer performances on fast ground especially under the welter burden of 9-10, no horse has carried more than 9-4 to victory in this race since the mighty Sea Pigeon carried 10st to win in 1979.
Clever Cookie looked a horse on the up on the level earlier in the year but he was off incredibly generous marks considering his hurdles form, he was well held in 7th last time out over a trip that was too short for him so despite the step up being a help he needs more off this mark.
I honestly haven't a clue why Gabrial is in the Ebor let alone running, he is a useful miler who stays no further than 9f. He is half brother to Intense Touch who runs earlier on the card & has already proved stamina for 1m6f but Gabrial is an entirely different animal, on his form he races & looks like a miler so I cannot fathom connections thinking that he will get 1m6f.
Mutual Regard was a useful handicapper for Sir Mark Prescott over 2 miles or further last season, his form this year received a boost on Wednesday when Edge Of Sanity who beat on his seasonal debut won at York & his 3rd in a Listed event thereafter reads well. However he looks handicapped upped to his best even allowing for the excellent Louis Steward's claim.
Bold Sniper has been crying out for this sort of trip all his life, he is a lazy hard ride who will make Ryan Moore earn his riding. Clearly he is talented but has no room for manoeuvre off this mark.
Repeater has the undoubted class to get involved but whether he fancies it is another matter, could not consider him in the slightest.
Sueigoo has been in grand form this season winning a Chester Cup & finishing 2nd in an Northumberland Plate, those extreme tests seem to have brought about the improvement & he now races off a mark that leaves him vulnerable.
De Rigueur has been aimed at this since winning the Old Newton Cup on rain softened ground at Haydock, seems adaptable as regards ground although no doubt that some rain would help, another with little room for error from this mark.
Nearly Caught has missed so many engagements this summer due to the fast ground, rain came on Thursday night so the ground has changed to good which will be fine for him although if its a dry day again on Friday it will quicken up so he would need more rain on Friday as its clear from the amount of times that his talented trainer has taken him out (last 3 starts) that he doesn't fancy him on it. If he was to run then he is a well handicapped talented individual who has a big handicap in him.
Sir Walter Scott is hard to weigh up, only 1 run so far for Luca Cumani when a decent 6th over a trip too short in company that was too hot, only 3 runs so far in his life he remains with potential although he seems to have been handicapped on that rather than form.
Aussie Reigns deserves to win a decent race if not least for his consistency, he has finished in the top 6 places on 18 of his last 22 starts. As a result the handicapper will not relent so even from a slightly reduced mark of 99 he still has work to do over a trip that should suit.
Great Hall has had the shrewdies talking ever since his 3rd in a slowly run trial for this that Continuum won (see pic beige colours nearest), it was the best race he had run for a very long time on debut for new connections & he was struck over the head by a rivals whip in the closing stages but I wouldn't say that he looks well handicapped as a result. 2 miles seems sure to suit as do hurdles over the winter & on all known flat form he is just not up to this class of race, highly tried as a 3yo (9th in The St Leger) & he also had 2 well beaten runs in Dubai in the early part of the year, he's just not for me.
Dare To Achieve won a Listed handicap at Hamilton on his seasonal debut from a mark of 94, the race fell apart & he was raised for that, as well as not handling Epsom last time his new mark looked beyond him. He has only been dropped 1lb here & although the trip may suit he looks handicapped out of it.
(see pic below yellow colours finishing behind Remote).
Elidor wasn't given a hard race over 2 miles for the first time at Ascot last time when well beaten, he is capable off his mark & stamina looks assured. He could easily go well at a price.
Wadi Al Hattawi hacked up on his seasonal debut at York earlier in the season over 12f travelling smoothly & quickening clear. He then went to Ascot in a hot race behind Arab Spring where he pulled too hard & was left with too much to do, he was short of room a couple of times in the straight but still ran on suggesting he is capable of his new mark. This has been the aim ever since & he has no stamina worries for me as his dam has produced winners up to 12f especially when crossed with a staying sire such as Wadi's Dalakhani. Stable has won this race last in the twice in the last 10 years & he looks to have an excellent chance at a good price.
Van Percy won one of the best trials for this race at Goodwood wearing down his less than genuine opponent Havana Cooler. Good honest & consistent at best, should be involved.
Retirement Plan finally put it all together when winning impressively stepped upped to 2 miles on rain softened ground at Ascot last time. Raised only 5lbs for that he can remain competitive, dropping back slightly in trip should not inconvenience although this is the toughest field he has faced.
Ted Veale was 4th last year from this mark, he had a in & out season over fences last season in top company. Won last time in a beginners chase at The Galway festival & reverts to the level here.
Mighty Yar a fine big grey horse completes the field of runners guaranteed a run, he seems best on a firm surface, his form at the moment is relatively inconsistent as he follows a good run by a bad run. Last time was one of his good runs with a strong 2nd to the younger Kings Fete at York, on breeding he should stay but its worth remembering that on his only try at the trip earlier in the year at Nottingham he was a well beaten 7th looking as if his stamina was not so assured as first thought although the ground was also most likely as much to blame. Player if he has his 'A' game.
Am keen on Wadi Al Hattawi 14/1 E/W Stan James / BetVictor to win again at York.
Opening up the final day at York is The Strensall over 10f, its has attracted a rather odd field if truth be told. The in form Custom Cut goes for a 4th win on the spin. He has yet to run over this distance although he ought to stay. Fast ground is a worry as his best form is with plenty of give. Graphic is a highly consistent animal who is hard to pass, trip is a slight concern as he has not tried it as yet & does not really look like a 10f animal but respected for his attitude alone. Elleval is a much better horse on the Tapeta or artificial surfaces & has yet to match that form on Turf, will at least.
Farraaj has been in tremendous form in top handicaps winning the John Smith's Cup well last time, is a previous Group 3 winner of the Winter Derby & must hold outstanding claims here. Flying The Flag is an Ballydoyle cast off that has ended up with Mike De Kock. Last seen when upstaging a better fancied stablemate in a Group 3 over 10f over a year at The Curragh, he has much to prove on his first start for the master South African trainer. Trade Storm has been overrated & overhyped for far too long now, he is just not as good as his one piece of Carnival form from 2 years ago when he beat Musir in a Group 2, ever since then he has faced incredibly tough tasks that he is not up to. This is much more realistic & also a relatively poor Group 3 on the ground he loves over a trip that he should stay so he has a chance although I wouldn't expect him to deliver on that.
Lady Lara is worth a try at this trip but faces a huge task taking on the boys here, she is just an ok filly who is about Listed class.
Not a race I would be getting involved with.
The junior Ebor that is The Melrose handicap is perhaps lacking a little this year with the top horses like Alex My Boy (rerouted to the St Leger trial at Goodwood) who were entered at the 5 day stage not taking up the entry but we are still left with some intriguing runners.
Unbeaten in his last 3 starts Connecticut has looked a potential Group horse & he will need to be to defy his new mark. His trainer has won this twice in the last 10 years so he must be respected. Urban Moon was held in The Ulster Derby last time & has plenty on of this mark. Rocket Ship is steadily improving winning his last 2 starts by a combined total of 15 lengths, lets not get carried away though he was entitled to be winning as the company he was keeping was lowly as was his mark. He is now much higher in by far the best race that he has tackled & would not be for me.
Our Gabrial received a masterful ride for Oliver Peslier last time out at Ascot to lead on the line, the step up to 12f made a huge difference & extra 2f should suit him down the ground, player. Captain Morley was a decent 3rd to Elite Army at Ascot last time, extra 2f should be ok for him but I would be worried that he has little left from his mark. Battersea made the most of a lesser mark last time winning nicely at Ascot over 12f, there is hope on pedigree that he wants this far (his half brother Gitano Hernando was a Grade 1 winner in the US at 10f & his other half brother Sizzler has run well up to 2m4f finishing 3rd in this years Queen Alexandra) & he needs to find more in a better race but the extra 2f could help .
Farquhar has a turnaround in the weights with Connecticut on previous course running but does he truly have as much potential as that rival? He ran ok last time staying on in his own time suggesting this trip would be ok for him.
Adventure Seeker was found in a better race at Goodwood last time & has work to do. Penhill won a race at Ripon that has produced the winner of this race twice in the last 10 years by 6 lengths on soft ground last time, improving sharply & not to be underestimated. Fiery Sunset broke his maiden at Lingfield in an ordinary maiden last time beating a horse who let the form down badly at Salisbury last week. Trip will suit but likely to struggle in the class. Vent De Force was well beaten upped to Group 3 class last time off the back of 2 strong wins at this trip in soft ground. Still plenty of room for improvement from this mark but ground is a worry.
Notarised is unusual for a Mark Johnston animal as he has not won for ages even after a few bad runs he has always a couple to good, trip fine but lacks the class to win this type of race. Sebastian Beach is a cracking big stamp of a horse who will make a lovely hurdler. He ran well under a big weight at Salisbury on this ground last week but in the end was well held. Up in class here over a trip that suits with no weight on his back & can get involved. Uradel is hard to way up on his first start for Willie Mullins, he won a 11,5000 Euro claimer last time out previous to that he had looked one paced in a 12f handicap (the winner was 2nd in a Listed event at Deauville on Sunday).
From Frost was well beaten by Our Gabrial at Ascot last time, still only has 2 wins at Southwell to his name & doesn't appeal. Innocent Touch is a half brother to Gabrial who runs in The Ebor later, he stays well on what we have seen so far when just getting nabbed over this trip at Chester 2 starts ago, this tougher.
Fun Mc is a horse I have followed for a while now, this trip is sure to bring out the best in him on this fast ground. He ran extremely well upped to this grade at Goodwood last time staying on through beaten horses, blinkers on should sharpen him up & off a mark of 80 there is so much more to come. Mantou steps up in grade & trip both look a problem. Kashmiri Sunset will appreciate the trip but surely on what we've seen is not up to this company.
Quite fancy Fun Mc 28/1 E/W Bet365 at a price to get involved.
The big 2yo race on the final day is The Gimcrack which in recent years has been won by horses that go on to be no more than fair. This year's renewal has that same look about it. Norfolk winner Baithe Alga heads them now carrying a 3lb penalty courtesy of that fluent success. Break since may bring others closer but respected none the less. Accepted is unbeaten in 2 starts in Ireland over 6 on debut & 5f in a Listed race next time, form looks fine & respected. Ahlan Emirati has been beaten in Group company on his last 3 starts last time at Goodwood over 7f, drop back will help & on his Curragh 2nd to Kool Kompany he has a chance. Aussie Ruler is still a maiden & for all he is consistent he would be a surprise winner here.
Beacon didn't get the best of runs last time when expected to win at Goodwood, classy type but telling that Hughes goes elsewhere to ride today.
Fendale has done nothing wrong in his 2 wins so far looking professional & classy, has been pointed at this for some time. Glenalmond has only a debut win to his name at Ayr in a slowish time, form is unspectacular but he is a full brother to Group 1 winner Wootton Bassett & stable did have Toocoolforschool run extremely well earlier in the week.
Jungle Cat has been beaten on his last 2 starts by Ivawood in good company, he faces nothing like the class of Ivawood here & deserves a decent win.
Muhaarar didn't get home over 7f last time at Ascot previous to that he had finished just behind Jungle Cat at Newmarket, chances.
Teruntum Star is held by Fendale on Musselburgh running & looks up against it here.
The Great War has yet to live up to his lofty price tag looking outpaced & mentally not ready for the challenges that 2yo Group races pose. Has been given time to mature since Newmarket & was pulled out of The Curragh due to ground 12 days ago which will have done him no harm. Type to progress with racing & may run better on Saturday.
Am a fan of Fendale 10/1 generally available to upset the applecart.
Down at Goodwood its Celebration Mile day add to that a 2yo Group 3 & a minor St Leger trial with some interesting runners.
The 2yo fillies open up the card in The Prestige Stakes;
Astrelle has won her last 2 starts in a lesser grade being pushed out to win a Nursery on rain softened ground at Newmarket last time, work to do up in grade but is progressive. Bonnie Grey has struggled in Listed grade on her last 3 starts, this is not as tough but she still has work to do. East Coast Lady confirmed her debut to no fluke when winning nicely under an astute ride on the best side of the track at Newmarket 2 starts ago, limitations were exposed in Nursery company last time though.
Efflorescence was scratched from The Sweet Solera after the rains came, her debut win was decent & she is worth a go in this grade. Stable has been very in & out so far this year which is concerning. Malabar followed up her excellent run in The Albany by breaking her maiden back at Ascot on her last start, at least this class & the one to beat.
#Mystic And Artist won easily in soft ground at Ayr last time in an incredibly slow, on what she has shown so far she is well below what's required here.
Publilia won her maiden readily ar Hamilton last time in decent style, form is again below what's required. What A Party has won her last starts well at Yarmouth & in Nursery company at Lingfield making all. Is underrated on what she has shown as her form is not that bad even her maiden runs are decent, could easily surprise.
Zifena did me a favour on her last start winning a good quality Nursery which is looking decent form, steps up her & entitled to improve for the extra furlong so no reason she cannot get some black type.
Not a betting event for me.
The big race of the day at Goodwood is The Celebration Mile won by some top class horses over the last few years, this years renewal lacks the real class of previous years but is still interesting. Recent impressive Salisbury winner Captain Cat returns quickly, he looked a million dollars that day & duly won handsomely if he remains in that form just 9 days later than he will take some beating.
If Belgian Bill can win a Group 2 after so many near misses in big handicaps then there is hope that I can still win the 100 metres at the Olympics...surely he is not good enough in this grade. Chil The Kite was disappointing in The Hungerford last week, he is still yet to show he can make the grade in Group races.
Emell is not up to this grade & you would assume is a pacemaker for stablemate Producer who was easily brushed aside by Captain Cat at Salisbury then 2 days later finished last in The Hungerford. He is not a miler for me & won't be winning this. Four improving 3yo's make up the field (3yo have won 4 of the last 10) headed by Bow Creek was 3rd in The Thoroughbred over course & distance last time. He was impeded by the wayward Hors De Combat (re-opposes here) but in truth was beaten at the time. Needs more against his elders now.
Hors De Combat for me should have won that race last time but for his waywardness which he had shown little sign of that before which is a concern, should get the oace to aim at again so if he can stay straight he should be involved.
Master Carpenter has had an excellent season & won in Group 3 company over in France the time before last. Acts on most ground but would prefer more cut.
I've made no secret of the regard I hold What About Carlo in, he missed the race that Hors De Combat & Bow Creek ran in last time due to the fast ground. A mile is fine for him in a strongly run race which this looks likely to be & he has little to find with his fellow 3yo's on their collateral handicap form, long been thought of as Group class he can get seriously involved in this as apart from Captain Cat the older horses are not top class.
Can't go against What About Carlo 25/1 E/W Paddy Power / 888Sport / Unibet who I am convinced can win on his first attempt at Group level.
The Listed March Stakes over 1m6f should really only concern the three 3 3yo's the much improved at this trip Alex My Boy, the highly regarded & talented Kings Fete & Forever Now who was 3rd in Group 3 company last time. They all still have St Leger aspirations so it will need a big performance by one of them here to head towards Town Moor. The improving Miss Marjurie deserves her chance in pattern class but has found some tough young opponents to take on. Alwida will enjoy the 1m6f but not the company similar comments apply Blue Surf who is a decent handicapper but struggles in a higher grade. Songcraft is the best of the older horses & will keep the young ones honest at least. Biographer has been a huge disappointment for a long time now, he makes his comeback after finishing down the field in Group 2 company back in May over 2 miles. He prefers soft ground & has it all to prove after so many disappointing runs.
A race to watch with a view to future targets.
Windsor's big race of the year takes place on Saturday evening, it has rather cut up from the 5 day entries which is a shame.
Former triple Group 1 winner Al Kazeem who returned from a aborted Stud career heads the field. He ran alright on his return when 4th in a good quality Newbury Listed event, it didn't prove that he is still up to the grade however & he is worth taking on again here. Clearly if he still has any of his old ability then he wins but its always a doubt how much they bring back to the course after having been let down to become a stallion.
Bayrir returns to European racing after failing to set the world alight down under last year & early this. On his very best form he is class as last year's win in The Secretariat Stakes Grade 1 at Arlington shows, he followed that up with a good 2nd in The Prix Niel, fascinating to see what he can bring to the table.
Presburg has a mountain to climb on official figures & although bad handicappers have won this before it would be a huge surprise if he managed it. Similar comments apply to Complicit who has been plying his trade in France mostly, assuming he's in there to make the pace for stablemate Gifted Girl; who must have a cracking chance of gaining a first Group success here; she ran much better at Salisbury last time & can be considered unlucky as she didn't receive the greatest of rides getting stuck in behind travelling well before getting out when all hope had gone, she ran on well for 2nd. It was a step back in the right direction & on her Beverly D Stakes 2nd last year she has a cracking chance. Zambucca has been awfully disappointing since coming to the UK & has no chance on what he has shown so far.
True Story is becoming an enigma the visor didn't help much at Haydock last time & he didn't really pick up in a strangely run race, it would appear that even Kieran Fallon has given up on him. However in his favour tonight is of course the Grade for a Group 3 its poor & mainly its his stables outstanding record in this race 3 wins in the last 10 years (7 overall) basically usually whatever Saeed runs wins this race.
Truth Or Dare completes the lineup & on early season form has no chance with True Story, his recent form would suggest that he is not up to this grade either.
Betting will be fascinating in this & will dictate whether I invest some money on the race.
@fttfracing
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