Thursday 21 August 2014

York Ebor Festival Day Three: Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes Thursday 22nd August 2014

Friday at York is when the speed animals take centre stage with The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes the feature event on what is otherwise a hard looking card.


A tough 1m4f handicap opens up Friday's card with the equally tough Salutation heading the weights, ran one of occasional stinkers last time at Haydock but his two previous were top class handicap form. Can easily bounce back but hard work under his big weight. Mirsaale is only little & has struggled in top level handicaps under from his mark for some time now, work to do once more. 
Wigmore Hall remains well handicapped & remains hard to win with even when dropped to a much less competitive event at Newmarket last time he still found one too good. Zaidiyn is harshly judged on his minor French provincial form in a handicap after showing nothing at Newbury last time, one to watch out for over the sticks in the autumn. Esteaming has gone up whilst staying in his stable since June, he has work to do from this mark in a good race. 
Chancery remains hard to win with after showing nothing on his last few starts, mark still a pound or 2 above his best. 
Communicator really should have won at Ascot last time, Adrie De Vries clearly seemed to be given instructions to keep the old horse interested as he cantered up behind the leaders & darted inside then out as horses fell back on him, as it was he ended up only being beaten just over a length. Faster ground here is a concern as is the fact that he just does not win & throughout his career has flattered to deceive. 
Semeen returned to his best when avoiding the trouble at Ascot last time finishing ahead of Communicator, it was impressive but he will need to improve again from his new mark in a much better race. Proud Chieftain completes the trio from that Ascot race he was 2nd which was a great run but given his overall record he is not likely to repeat that effort here. Pearl Castle was a decent 6th in The Galway Hurdle last time after a laboured 4th to Kings Fete here the time before, he is vulnerable to a similar type of improver from this mark. Lahaag was disappointing again last time at Haydock coming off the bridle early & just never really responding, he is on an excellent mark but just doesn't look the same horse this season. 
Stomachion was not given a hard time when his chance had gone at Goodwood last time, he was held up in the back with far too much to do as it turned out, he is better than that & stepping back up in trip here is what he wants. Mark still looks lenient on what he has achieved so far & is a confident selection here. 
Glenard has been running well but not quite getting home over staying distances on his last 2 starts or perhaps I am being overly nice about him, he hasn't wanted to get home. Funny horse who appears not to put it all in. 
Saptapadi simply doesn't win to be considered. 
Pilgrim's Rest starts out for another new stable after some cracking early season efforts for Tim Pitt his form dropped off, softer ground suits him ideally & in truth he doesn't stay this far to allow him to win, 10f is much more his trip. 
Gabrial The Hero is on a hat trick after wins in lesser company, he just about does enough each time so we don't know how much he has left to come, could play apart if coping with the step up. Dolphin Village ran on the first day in the stayers race, this race is more his bag but would need to show more if he appeared again 2 days later. Modernism is none too consistent & struggles to win in this kind of grade of this sort of mark. Satellite is unexposed after just 4 starts, very much respected as a 3yo but he is a big horse who hits the ground quite hard so I don't think genuine fast ground is what he wants & he was disappointing when favourite over this trip at Haydock a couple of weeks ago. 
Xinbama simply has never been up to this top end handicap & will struggle.

Stomachion is one of my main fancies of the whole week & I am confident he can win this.  






The Lonsdale Cup is quite simply all about Cavalryman who has looked a rejuvenated character this season with Group 2 wins at Newmarket & in The Goodwood Cup last time out. That race has been the main source of winners for this race in the last 10 years with 6 of the last 10 winners coming from Goodwood to win here. 
Those looking to turn that form around are headed by Estimate who was incredibly disappointing that day, on her best she is a huge player but one would have to see her bounce back here before thinking of backing her. 
Angel Gabrial was a well beaten 5th on his first foray into Group company last time & faces an uphill battle to do any better than that here. 
Forgotten Voice received a strange ride last at Goodwood being revved up early in the race before eventually finishing well beaten, hard to envisage him winning here after that effort. 
So to the horses who didn't run at Goodwood; Certerach is a decent horse at his best who enjoyed his finest hour when winning The Dubai Gold Cup after Cavalryman got into all sorts of trouble in behind. He appeared to just have an off day behind Pale Mimosa (re-opposes today) last time & is better than that, this course should suit fine & on Dubai fine you have to consider him for a place. 
Pale Mimosa herself was impressive at Leopardstown on ground that she loves, she has yet to win above Listed grade but on each time she has tried the ground has been against her. It won't be on Friday at present so we will see if she can cut it in Group company. 
High Jinx finally won a race dropped to Listed company at Maison Lafitte after 11 unsuccessful tries over the last 2 years, player at his very best if that win has reignited the fire inside. 
Times Up won this in 2012 beating High Jinx, he was 3rd last year to Azheemah & has won the last 2 renewals of The Doncaster Cup (beating High Jinx both times), one would imagine that is where his sights are headed again after 3 months off.     

Not a betting event for me.






A huge field of 16 go to post for the 7f City of York at 3:05;
Old warrior Penitent is giving 5lbs away to his younger rivals after a win in this grade 5 starts ago, he has since been well beaten & has work to do here. 
Absolutely So almost won The Bunbury Cup on his last start which leaves him with little to find up in class here, his best form is with cut so genuine fast ground would be a concern. Alfred Hutchinson has a huge amount to find in this class on Turf. 
Gabriel's Lad has been disappointing in his last 2 starts since winning the Victoria Cup in good style at Ascot in the spring, capable at his best but has yet to bridge the gap into pattern class. Glen Moss was also in fantastic form in the early part of the year but has tailed off since from his new handicap mark, front runner who will find this jump in class a bridge too far. Glory Awaits is overall a disappointing animal & this is a much tougher Listed race than he cares for. Heaven's Guest is in a rich vein of form at present with a win in The Bunbury Cup, a close up 4th in The International before a 12th placed finish which can be forgiven due to the nature of the race at Goodwood last time. This really fast ground could well prove his undoing. 
Highland Colori was well beaten once more at Salisbury last week, he has yet to make the class jump from top level handicapper to pattern performer & is best watched at present. Rerouted ran a nice race at Salisbury last week, this is much more his trip & the ground should be perfect for him, player. 
Sovereign Debt is a decent performer at his best but has not quite made the breakthrough at Listed or Group level, soft ground is what he needs & can only be watched on his first start for a new stable after a 300 day absence. 
Top Notch Tonto ran in the handicap yesterday with no success & has little chance in this on his current form. Cable Bay was a fairly exposed 2yo in Group company who makes his 3yo debut here, debatable how much if any improvement he has got to come after a busy campaign at 2. Ertijaal is probably at least Listed class but is just struggling to find his feet after coming back from a break after a busy early season campaign on the AW. Mushir is a similar type of horse to his owner mate Ertijaal, he made the most of a class drop in a 4 runner conditions event at Thirsk a few weeks ago but each time he has stepped into Listed company he has not quite had the tactical ability to get involved. That Is The Spirit couldn't cope with the demands of Group company on his last 2 starts & this is no easier, will struggle again. 
Windfast nearly got put through the rails at Goodwood last time over a trip that was stretching him, 7f is perfect for him as is fast ground & with the likely strong pace to tow him into contention I would be expecting a huge effort from him against largely disappointing animals. 

      Windfast has the ability so on Friday with trip & ground perfect for him I would expect a big run. 



                


Former dual winner Borderlescott returns the knavesmire at the age of 12 after finishing 18th in the Stewards Cup, his old legs won't be able to keep up with these younger sprinters now. 



Monsieur Joe was unplaced in the Handicap on Day One & has never had designs on being a Group 1 sprinter even in his pomp. 



This has to be Moviesta's chance of bagging a big one, ground & trip are perfect for him, he showed that he is on his way back to form when only just failing at Goodwood behind Take Cover last time. This track will suit much better as the majority of his top handicap form has come at this course for his local trainer. Big player at decent odds.



  Pearl Secret hasn't quite made the transition that everyone expected of him to Group 1 class sprinter, the ground is the major issue for me as he really doesn't seem to handle fast ground as well as a slower surface, the race for him is surely the L'Abbaye on Arc day.



Shea Shea ran like a drain for the first time in his career at Ascot on his sole UK start this year, entitled to have needed that as a 7yo he is not getting any younger & has had a hard time travelling all over the world. More than capable if the flame still burns brightly but you would be concerned that he is not the same horse this time around & that he usually finds one to beat him. 



Sole Power is the best of these by a country mile & appears to be in the form of his life this season, at present it looks like he will get his beloved fast ground. A former winner of this as an unconsidered 100/1 shot back in 2010 he has returned to the Knavesmire twice since in this race finishing 3rd last year & 7th in 2012, both times the ground has gone against him. Hard to keep out of the first 3.



Stepper Point has all the ability in the world but struggles to put it all together into a winning run on a big day, usually runs well when you least expect it & in a race that has had it's fair share of shocks wouldn't be a ridiculous winner. 



Steps hasn't yet made the transition to Group class & would be more at home with some juice in the ground, capable of travelling well in behind what appears to a very speedy field & like Stepper Point is another to could outrun his inflated odds. 



Take Cover has burst onto the scene courtesy of 2 all the way wins here & last time impressively at Goodwood in a race that is usually the best trial for this race. Respected as he is in the form of his life at present but this is tougher to dominate some of the best 5f horses in the world & some of those in behind him were slightly inconvenienced in there runs so are more than capable of turning that form around. 



Astaire has disappointed badly on his last 2 starts & is now on a recovery mission at a trip he has never tried before. Capable at his very best but tough to fancy him at present.



Cougar Mountain ran a race full of promise on his Group 1 debut in The July Cup last time which was only his 2nd lifetime start, he ended up in the Group against the stand side rails which was not the place to be with how the race panned out. He ran on strongly at the end for a excellent 5th, he now drops back to 5f for the first time on Friday against some of the best sprinters around & may well find it all happening a bit too quickly. 



Extortionist has really found his form of late winning in handicap company at Newmarket & Group 3 company impressively at Sandown, sandwiched in between are 2 excellent 2nd places in Group 3 events at The Curragh & Goodwood latterly behind Take Cover where he didn't get the best of runs. Loves fast ground so has to be hard to keep out of the frame given his current form. 



G Force has been hyped up by connections on his last 3 starts since winning his maiden & a handicap at York impressively, he strikes me as a horse who is not quite the finished article as yet so as a result is struggling with the demands of pattern company. 



Hot Streak was due to carry all before him after his romp in the Haydock mud earlier in the year but while he ran well at Ascot he was never truly going to win as he was not letting himself down on the ground. The ground came for him in The July Cup where he was very disappointing, fast ground potentially again on Friday looks an issue & maybe his improvement has come to an end for this season as a 3yo. 



Rangali has won his last 2 races in good style at Chantilly & Maison Lafitte, most of his form is on very soft ground apart from the best win of his career so far last time in Group 3 company where he readily disposed the generally disappointing Catcall (Stepper Point well behind). Intriguing runner who is on the improve & could well be overpriced.


    

Have been waiting for Moviesta to tackle 5f on genuine fast ground all season when he is fully wound up & today looks the day for him to strike. 






A 3yo 1 mile handicap rounds up the card at 4:55 with 15 going to post.
God Willing heads the weights off the back of 2 largely disappointing efforts this season, plenty to prove at present. Maverick Wave will appreciate the faster ground & likely better pace here but still looks badly treated on what he has achieved. 
Pit Stop comes over from Michael Halford's stable in Ireland, he didn't get involved in a useful race at The Curragh last time after getting up close home the time before at Leopardstown. Mark looks stiff but Conor Hoban is a more than useful young jockey who takes 3 lbs off his back so that brings him in play. 
Munaaser won as he liked last time out & now must defy a 12lb rise which makes things tougher for him here. Moohaarib looked held from his new mark at Ascot last time & will need to progress again to take a hand. Sir Guy Porteous is another who looks in the handicappers pocket on the basis of his last 2 starts, as with any Johnston handicapper though he could just return to form out of the blue but it would be surprising if he did. Extremity appears to be this year's Short Squeeze from Hugo Palmer's up & coming Newmarket base, he was well backed & duly obliged at Goodwood last time saving a bit for himself. Mark of 91 not ridiculous & could easily follow up. 
Halation has won his last 2 in uncompetitive affairs, up another 5lbs in a better race demands more of him. Lesha has maintained his form so far this season & bounced back from an unlucky run at Goodwood behind Extremity to just get nabbed by an improving filly last time, mark keeps him interested. 
Master Of The World is well off for a beating by Halation last time when he was lit up by the first time visor, he nearly nabbed the race anyway but faded late on. Will be more accustomed to the visor 2nd time & with Fallon onboard expect stronger handling, player. Regiment looks set to struggle as he has done on his last 3 starts. 
Almuheet has yet to add to his sole maiden success, he showed a bit more last time in a lesser grade at Newcastle, has got potential & could get involved with no weight on his back. Perfect Persuasion was well beaten last time at Newmarket, step up in trip will help but she has a lot to find against the boys. 
Tiger Twenty Two has generally struggled so far this season & was last when he was last seen on a racetrack. Lockhart has work to do with Lesha on Haydock & was easily brushed aside last Sunday at Pontefract.

Not a race I will be getting involved with.


@fttfracing
         
        

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