The big day that we have all been gearing up for over the last few months is now just 5 days away & there is plenty of festive cheer to be had at Ascot on Saturday, the last big race before we all overeat & drink is The Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle.
Those travelling to Ascot on Saturday have a useful looking card to inspect with the Graduation Chase at 13:15 an extremely interesting affair.
Irish Saint steps up to near a distance that he won a Grade 2 Hurdle at Ascot back in January, he made a nice chasing debut beating Chris Pea Green at Sandown on his return but was always being held by Dunraven Storm & Vibrato Valtat in a Grade 1 last time. In the context of this race that form is the best on show but he does have weight to give away all round as a result.
Puffin Billy put in a display which got better the further he went here at Ascot last time with some bold leaps especially over the last 3 fences to win going away. This is first attempt at 2m5f but on breeding & running style it should be fine for him, another bold show expected.
Drop Out Joe was miles behind the imperious Kings Palace at Cheltenham in November, he had previously won at Carlisle on Chase debut. A useful individual but he may well be found against some classy opposition once more & may be one for handicaps.
Grand Vision was most disappointing when a strong fav in what looked a winnable race at Uttoxeter last time out after previously showing up well for a long way before slightly misjudging a fence at Haydock & taking a heavy fall on chase debut, perhaps he was still feeling the effects of that fall last time either way he is best watched here.
Thomas Crapper has been immaculate over his fences in 3 chase starts so far but unfortunately they have been at a trip well short of his best & he has been out speeded by 3 promising 2 mile Novices Court Minstrel, subsequent Grade 1 winner Vibrato Valtat & last time in a particularly hot Novice at Leicester by Three Kingdoms (who has won again since), at these weights over a trip that will finally suit he is a big player here.
Am a big fan of Puffin Billy but at these weights over this distance Thomas Crapper has to go well.
2 mile handicappers are up next with the perennially well fancied Bellenos carrying top weight, he showed hardly anything again here at Ascot last time & appears to be well out of form at present. Lancetto won this race last year & returns only a few lbs higher after a good albeit well beaten 2nd here a few weeks ago, he was given far too much to do that day behind the runaway winner so if ridden closer he has every chance of winning this race once more.
Ulck Du Lin rose rapidly in the weights after his win here on return & was disappointing in the Lancetto race here last time, work to do once more.
Ballygarvey has been on my tracker for sometime ever since his one run last season, off for 400 days since due to injury he returns with his stable still in flying form & looks to be on a very fair mark if he is ready to roll.
Malibu Sun has been in top form since March winning 5 times from his last 6 starts rising from a rating of 92 to now compete off 130, all of those wins have been on no worse than good ground so the current soft going description at Ascot has to be a concern.
Key To The West made the most of a reduced rating to win easily last time & needs more again upped in grade here. Last Shot has looked held from marks in & around his current rating of 124 since he won at Ludlow this time last year, he missed what looked a good opportunity at that course last time out so is another with plenty on his plate here.
Backed Lancetto last time so pricing will be interesting here as he goes for a 2nd win, he could be shorter than ideal so I may look to the returning Ballygarvey but again it is price dependent.
The Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle has attracted just the 5 runners which is a huge disappointment for such a high profile race.
Aubusson the runaway Fixed Brush winner at Haydock makes a marked step up from Grade 3 handicap to Grade 1, the race last time proved how well handicapped he was with his young lady rider Lizzie Kelly's 7lb claim clearly a huge advantage. In truth if you look back at that race anyone could have ridden him to win as he was so far ahead of the handicapper. Now upped to a Grade 1 race his young rider cannot claim so has plenty to find with some proven Graded performers but he is clearly on the upgrade so it is worth taking a chance with so few runners.
Stablemate Reve De Sivola is seeking a hat trick of wins in this race after dotting up in desperate ground for the last 2 years. He was well beaten last month at Auteuil in a race he won in dramatic circumstances last year by Zarkander so has to reverse form with that rival but perhaps returning to Ascot can have a positive effect in that sense, hard not to see him being involved.
Medinas gained deserved reward for always turning up to the big gigs when looking better than ever last time at Newbury easily beating the useful Cole Harden & a clearly below par More Of That, that race is the best trial for this & it would be unwise to say that last win was a fluke & is worth considering once more.
Dell' Arca hasn't taken to fences in 2 starts so far this season despite an ok 2nd in a Grade 2 at Newbury last time where he never looked that comfortable on the bad ground, he reverts back to hurdles over a trip he has not yet tried in a Grade he has not dipped his toes in either. On his high class handicap form he has only a few lbs to find & if improving for the step up could easily play a part.
Zarkander so often a nearly horse gained a Grade 1 at Auteuil over this trip last time after being ridden much closer to the pace than is the norm for him, if that has reignited the fire inside then he is clearly the best horse in this race on old form.
With so few runners the fun of betting has been taken out of this race.
A good quality Listed handicap chase is up next with gallant Hennessy 2nd Houblon Des Obeaux again shouldering top weight, he won this race after finishing 6th in the Hennessy last year off a mark of 152 & he now races off 161 but in many ways easily put up a career best effort at Newbury last time so has to come here with a big chance once more over a track he goes well at.
Hey Big Spender's love affair with Newcastle's Rehearsal Chase continued a few weeks ago with a 3rd win in the race, he was pulled up in this race back in 2012 & now races of mark that he won that year's Classic Chase at Warwick so is still handicapped to win its just how much that last performance has taken out of him that is the question here.
Sound Investment has been running consistently as he has progressed through the ranks on his last 3 starts but he was well put in his place by a well ridden lightly weighted rival last time out at Newbury who did little for the form when falling last weekend & he has stamina to prove here.
The Young Master returns to the track after the Wincanton debacle in which neither Weatherby's, BHA or connections came out of well. Now racing from a new mark after having that race taken away from him he has to improve again but judging by his form & his wins especially the 'non' race for him last time he looked value for more so has to respected.
Le Reve never really got into the Hennessy last time & was pulled up after several mistakes, perhaps it was the quality of the race or his new mark putting him under pressure. On his seasonal debut win at Sandown win he looked a horse who would be capable in staying races on soft ground which he has always promised so he is worth another chance in a less competitive race.
Up To Something didn't take to Aintree as expected when falling last time & was beaten out of site in a good race behind Many Clouds at Carlisle on his return, he appears to need some help from the handicapper.
Via Sundown is another Hennessy also ran, he had been progressive in staying chases on soft ground at a lower level previously, unlike many he has had his mark slightly reduced for his last run so that gives him some hope in this race.
Ardkilly Witness has been steadily improving of late running well here last time & off a very favourable mark here, if he can the mistakes down he has a excellent chance of getting involved on ground that will suit.
Polisky has plenty of ability but seems to enjoy finding ways to confound punters & connections alike, he should have won here last time when handing badly, not one to put 100% faith in & best left alone in this quality of race.
Quite keen on Ardkilly Witness here.
The big race of the day is always a competitive affair as you would expect for the money on offer & this year is no exception;
Greatwood Handicap Hurdle winner Garde La Victoire heads the weights on 11-12, he put up a high class front running display to win the Greatwood last time on ground that would have been less than ideal, that performance showed a hitherto unknown quality of tactical versatility a horse who is equally adept at coming from of the pace & who can make the running if required. He is a big horse so the extra 3lb's should not inconvenience & you would be hard pressed to say that this race is as deep as the Greatwood was, of course there's no denying that shouldering top weight it will take a Champion Hurdle class performance for him to follow up but I have always been impressed by this horse & so far he is improving with racing so who knows he may well be capable of becoming a live outsider for a Champion Hurdle by winning here.
Those travelling to Ascot on Saturday have a useful looking card to inspect with the Graduation Chase at 13:15 an extremely interesting affair.
Irish Saint steps up to near a distance that he won a Grade 2 Hurdle at Ascot back in January, he made a nice chasing debut beating Chris Pea Green at Sandown on his return but was always being held by Dunraven Storm & Vibrato Valtat in a Grade 1 last time. In the context of this race that form is the best on show but he does have weight to give away all round as a result.
Puffin Billy put in a display which got better the further he went here at Ascot last time with some bold leaps especially over the last 3 fences to win going away. This is first attempt at 2m5f but on breeding & running style it should be fine for him, another bold show expected.
Drop Out Joe was miles behind the imperious Kings Palace at Cheltenham in November, he had previously won at Carlisle on Chase debut. A useful individual but he may well be found against some classy opposition once more & may be one for handicaps.
Grand Vision was most disappointing when a strong fav in what looked a winnable race at Uttoxeter last time out after previously showing up well for a long way before slightly misjudging a fence at Haydock & taking a heavy fall on chase debut, perhaps he was still feeling the effects of that fall last time either way he is best watched here.
Thomas Crapper has been immaculate over his fences in 3 chase starts so far but unfortunately they have been at a trip well short of his best & he has been out speeded by 3 promising 2 mile Novices Court Minstrel, subsequent Grade 1 winner Vibrato Valtat & last time in a particularly hot Novice at Leicester by Three Kingdoms (who has won again since), at these weights over a trip that will finally suit he is a big player here.
Am a big fan of Puffin Billy but at these weights over this distance Thomas Crapper has to go well.
2 mile handicappers are up next with the perennially well fancied Bellenos carrying top weight, he showed hardly anything again here at Ascot last time & appears to be well out of form at present. Lancetto won this race last year & returns only a few lbs higher after a good albeit well beaten 2nd here a few weeks ago, he was given far too much to do that day behind the runaway winner so if ridden closer he has every chance of winning this race once more.
Ulck Du Lin rose rapidly in the weights after his win here on return & was disappointing in the Lancetto race here last time, work to do once more.
Ballygarvey has been on my tracker for sometime ever since his one run last season, off for 400 days since due to injury he returns with his stable still in flying form & looks to be on a very fair mark if he is ready to roll.
Malibu Sun has been in top form since March winning 5 times from his last 6 starts rising from a rating of 92 to now compete off 130, all of those wins have been on no worse than good ground so the current soft going description at Ascot has to be a concern.
Key To The West made the most of a reduced rating to win easily last time & needs more again upped in grade here. Last Shot has looked held from marks in & around his current rating of 124 since he won at Ludlow this time last year, he missed what looked a good opportunity at that course last time out so is another with plenty on his plate here.
Backed Lancetto last time so pricing will be interesting here as he goes for a 2nd win, he could be shorter than ideal so I may look to the returning Ballygarvey but again it is price dependent.
The Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle has attracted just the 5 runners which is a huge disappointment for such a high profile race.
Aubusson the runaway Fixed Brush winner at Haydock makes a marked step up from Grade 3 handicap to Grade 1, the race last time proved how well handicapped he was with his young lady rider Lizzie Kelly's 7lb claim clearly a huge advantage. In truth if you look back at that race anyone could have ridden him to win as he was so far ahead of the handicapper. Now upped to a Grade 1 race his young rider cannot claim so has plenty to find with some proven Graded performers but he is clearly on the upgrade so it is worth taking a chance with so few runners.
Stablemate Reve De Sivola is seeking a hat trick of wins in this race after dotting up in desperate ground for the last 2 years. He was well beaten last month at Auteuil in a race he won in dramatic circumstances last year by Zarkander so has to reverse form with that rival but perhaps returning to Ascot can have a positive effect in that sense, hard not to see him being involved.
Medinas gained deserved reward for always turning up to the big gigs when looking better than ever last time at Newbury easily beating the useful Cole Harden & a clearly below par More Of That, that race is the best trial for this & it would be unwise to say that last win was a fluke & is worth considering once more.
Dell' Arca hasn't taken to fences in 2 starts so far this season despite an ok 2nd in a Grade 2 at Newbury last time where he never looked that comfortable on the bad ground, he reverts back to hurdles over a trip he has not yet tried in a Grade he has not dipped his toes in either. On his high class handicap form he has only a few lbs to find & if improving for the step up could easily play a part.
Zarkander so often a nearly horse gained a Grade 1 at Auteuil over this trip last time after being ridden much closer to the pace than is the norm for him, if that has reignited the fire inside then he is clearly the best horse in this race on old form.
With so few runners the fun of betting has been taken out of this race.
A good quality Listed handicap chase is up next with gallant Hennessy 2nd Houblon Des Obeaux again shouldering top weight, he won this race after finishing 6th in the Hennessy last year off a mark of 152 & he now races off 161 but in many ways easily put up a career best effort at Newbury last time so has to come here with a big chance once more over a track he goes well at.
Hey Big Spender's love affair with Newcastle's Rehearsal Chase continued a few weeks ago with a 3rd win in the race, he was pulled up in this race back in 2012 & now races of mark that he won that year's Classic Chase at Warwick so is still handicapped to win its just how much that last performance has taken out of him that is the question here.
Sound Investment has been running consistently as he has progressed through the ranks on his last 3 starts but he was well put in his place by a well ridden lightly weighted rival last time out at Newbury who did little for the form when falling last weekend & he has stamina to prove here.
The Young Master returns to the track after the Wincanton debacle in which neither Weatherby's, BHA or connections came out of well. Now racing from a new mark after having that race taken away from him he has to improve again but judging by his form & his wins especially the 'non' race for him last time he looked value for more so has to respected.
Le Reve never really got into the Hennessy last time & was pulled up after several mistakes, perhaps it was the quality of the race or his new mark putting him under pressure. On his seasonal debut win at Sandown win he looked a horse who would be capable in staying races on soft ground which he has always promised so he is worth another chance in a less competitive race.
Up To Something didn't take to Aintree as expected when falling last time & was beaten out of site in a good race behind Many Clouds at Carlisle on his return, he appears to need some help from the handicapper.
Via Sundown is another Hennessy also ran, he had been progressive in staying chases on soft ground at a lower level previously, unlike many he has had his mark slightly reduced for his last run so that gives him some hope in this race.
Ardkilly Witness has been steadily improving of late running well here last time & off a very favourable mark here, if he can the mistakes down he has a excellent chance of getting involved on ground that will suit.
Polisky has plenty of ability but seems to enjoy finding ways to confound punters & connections alike, he should have won here last time when handing badly, not one to put 100% faith in & best left alone in this quality of race.
Quite keen on Ardkilly Witness here.
The big race of the day is always a competitive affair as you would expect for the money on offer & this year is no exception;
Greatwood Handicap Hurdle winner Garde La Victoire heads the weights on 11-12, he put up a high class front running display to win the Greatwood last time on ground that would have been less than ideal, that performance showed a hitherto unknown quality of tactical versatility a horse who is equally adept at coming from of the pace & who can make the running if required. He is a big horse so the extra 3lb's should not inconvenience & you would be hard pressed to say that this race is as deep as the Greatwood was, of course there's no denying that shouldering top weight it will take a Champion Hurdle class performance for him to follow up but I have always been impressed by this horse & so far he is improving with racing so who knows he may well be capable of becoming a live outsider for a Champion Hurdle by winning here.
Bayan represents the Gordon Elliott stable who won this 2 years ago with Cause Of Causes, this years representative is not overly big & the worry is that he is too high in the weights for a race such as this despite being a consistent individual.
Swing Bowler has been a useful mare over the years & is still lightly raced for her age. She has yet to hit the frame or win one of these big handicaps & she is another who looks high enough on her return from her long absence.
Ballyglasheen ran as well as could be expected here last time when well behind Faugheen, he was a useful juvenile hurdler who capped a busy season with a win in the Swinton back in May as a result he remains on his highest career mark & although he could place a win looks beyond him.
Goodwood Mirage missed the Greatwood after putting up a career best performance over hurdles at Wetherby on his first start of the year hurdling & travelling fluently, that race has worked out well producing 4 winners including dual winner Lightning Rod. Goodwood Mirage returns to the track here now off a career high mark over hurdles of 142 so has to prove that last run was as good as it looked with his stable's form generally below par.
Foxcub is an admirable handicap hurdler who is in top form at present producing a career best last time out at Bangor when beating the very useful Clondaw Kaempfer, has to improve again in this race but one to bear in mind.
Activial makes his return to the track after a hugely disappointing effort when well fancied at Aintree in April. Prior to that he had hurdled with aplomb when winning at Kempton & showed plenty on his UK debut at Newbury in a decent Novice. Stable is in good form & you would expect him to be better than his current handicap mark so in the long run he could be well prove to be a handicap snip here.
Pine Creek was only 7th in this last year off a slightly higher mark after winning the William Hill Handicap hurdle over course & distance, this time around he ran well on his return in the Greatwood but in truth was well beaten. He is still a few lbs above his last winning mark & seems to struggle to get by these better horses in bigger races.
Shelford represents last year's winning connections & arrives here in similar form to that winner, his form has worked out well with Aubusson bolting up over further at Haydock last time. He needs to improve again to take a hand here but is on a roll & there is no telling when that will end.
The imponderable of the race is Balgarry who returns after over 2 years off the track, he was well fancied for the Coral Cup back in 2012 after easily winning at Newbury a few weeks before. He returns here off the same mark he ran on in the Coral Cup & on the potential he showed at Newbury he should be more than capable. Three other horses from the stable who have come back from long absences already this season & they have both won so he has to be respected.
Pyromaniac comes over from the shrewd Tony Martin stable in Ireland, he is only a Novice & was well beaten in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, on a line through Emerging Talent he cannot beat Shelford. His opening mark could be deemed slightly harsh & he could well be over bet.
Cool Macavity would not be one of Nicky Henderson's shining lights on form has plenty to find although there was some promise in his last run where fitness told when finishing behind Garde La Victoire at Aintree.
Baradari was not sighted in the Greatwood after a promising first run behind Sign Of A Victory here earlier in the season. If he can return in that form here he could easily outrun his odds on ground that looks certain to suit.
Gassin Golf has plenty of ability but as his form figures suggest he often finds one too good for him but perhaps fresh is the best time to catch him so he is another to add to the short list at likely decent odds.
Hello George steps out of Novice company after two defeats on his last two starts at Exeter, remains with plenty of potential but can make mistakes so will need to be foot perfect here.
Jebril is a good looking lad who has only had the 3 career starts over hurdles, he won at Plumpton before sticking on really takingly here behind the monster that is Jolly's Cracked It in a good quality race. Unlike what we have seen of him so far he made a series of mistakes next time at Huntingdon so that run can be forgive. Won't look out of place in this race & could easily outrun his monster odds.
Clondaw Warrior is lightly raced over jumps for his age, he was well in at Cheltenham in the Greatwood but was readily outpointed towards the finish by Garde La Victoire & personally I cannot see why that should be turned around here.
Minellaforleisure is a lightly raced decent stamp of a horse who returned after a year off with an ok run in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury recently, remains with plenty of potential & you can see why connections have thrown their hat into the ring as he is on an appealing mark.
Sea Beat is the 4th Irish challenger who is hard to way up, he beat Le Vent D'antan in February before finishing well down the field at Punchestown. He returned on the Flat in October running a promising race after appearing fresh in the early stages. Definite contender potential from his mark as he should have more to offer.
So many in with chances, Activial is short on his return now as is Balgarry although I could easily see both playing a part the prices are putting me off.
That leaves me with my Greatwood victor Garde La Victoire who at 14/1 E/W BetBright is more than tempting again.
Plenty of ohers made the shortlist headed by Baradari who does have a race of this quality in him but has to prove he is over his below par run last time.
So many in with chances, Activial is short on his return now as is Balgarry although I could easily see both playing a part the prices are putting me off.
That leaves me with my Greatwood victor Garde La Victoire who at 14/1 E/W BetBright is more than tempting again.
Plenty of ohers made the shortlist headed by Baradari who does have a race of this quality in him but has to prove he is over his below par run last time.
@fttfracing
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