Hello & welcome along to my first blog of the New Year, I trust all my readers had a festive Christmas & an excellent New Year's Eve.
I have taken a break from the racing over Christmas & in truth it has been a liberating experience, in the whole period I watched just one race live.
I can safely say its the first time I have ever truly used my RUK subscription to its full potential to catch up on all the races I have missed.
I have taken a break from the racing over Christmas & in truth it has been a liberating experience, in the whole period I watched just one race live.
I can safely say its the first time I have ever truly used my RUK subscription to its full potential to catch up on all the races I have missed.
From a punting point of view my one bet of the whole festive season ran like a drain & when checking the results I would never have backed any of the winners of the last 2 weeks so in hindsight staying away from it has been the right call.
So as a New Year has dawned it seems appropriate to once again state that in this wonderful sport of ours that so many of us love, if you're not feeling it or are in a bad run of form its no shame to just walk away for a few weeks or a month, the real shame is in chasing the dragon of that elusive big winner we all crave.
As all of my loyal readers know I would never class myself as a tipster & have never claimed to be despite my appearances on Betracingnation during last year.
This blog is aimed to advise & inform but to be truthful it's also a way of putting all my thoughts into words.
This blog is aimed to advise & inform but to be truthful it's also a way of putting all my thoughts into words.
This Saturday may lack the quality of recent weeks but in some ways that makes it more compelling with many minor trainers & jockeys stepping into the weekend limelight.
Sandown is the feature meeting with the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle taking centre stage with just the 4 runners which is a shame but with so much quality action during the last few weeks it has often suffered in recent years add in to that mix the weather which has cost this fixture in 2009 & 2010.
Prior to those cancellations it had been a Paul Nicholls benefit with the former Champion Trainer winning it 4 times in 6 years.
In the last 4 years Nicky Henderson has trained 3 of the last 4 winners.
He is represented by this seasons dual winner L'Ami Serge an impressive winner at Newbury from recent runaway Haydock winner Kilcooley & sauntered home in similarly small field at Ascot recently when his main danger Emerging Talent fell early in the straight.
Clearly a useful individual he will be a warm order here.
The imposing Jolly's Cracked It steps into Graded company for the first time after 2 Hurdle wins at Ascot the latest in more impressive style than the eventual winning distance gives him credit for. He travelled through that last race with ease hurdling nimbly for one so large easing himself into the lead on the home turn.
He made a horrendous mistake 2 out when all but falling but somehow he regained his composure to still travel away from some useful opponents up the straight but for that mistake he would have won by a considerable larger distance.
The time for his first win at Ascot compares favourably to that of L'Ami Serge's Grade 2 while his last start was run at a crawl so that time is best ignored.
A hugely talented individual who looks well up to this standard & can throw it down to the likely favourite.
He made a horrendous mistake 2 out when all but falling but somehow he regained his composure to still travel away from some useful opponents up the straight but for that mistake he would have won by a considerable larger distance.
The time for his first win at Ascot compares favourably to that of L'Ami Serge's Grade 2 while his last start was run at a crawl so that time is best ignored.
A hugely talented individual who looks well up to this standard & can throw it down to the likely favourite.
Shelford has been improving through the handicap ranks at a rate of knots so far this season but came unstuck from his new mark in a decent renewal of the Ladbroke handicap last time at Ascot. He faces a rival already proven in graded company already & another with huge potential as he steps into Grade 1 company but on a line through Jebril (finished a length behind Jolly's Cracked It 2 starts back) who he beat by over 12 lengths last time he is also well worth a go in this exalted company.
Connections of thrice raced 11 year old Thelordbewithyou deserve some credit for taking a chance in the race as with just the 4 runners as if he is to complete on his first run for 663 days he will get over £2000 pounds for them.
9/2 Stan James about Jolly's Cracked It is more than appealing.
9/2 Stan James about Jolly's Cracked It is more than appealing.
Opening up the card is a decent looking Juvenile hurdle featuring the NH debut of Arabian Revolution from the in-form John Ferguson stable, his flat form got progressively worse signing off with a well beaten 4th on the fibresand at Southwell in November. A decent stamp of a horse he should make a hurdler & its less competitive than most of these races.
Classical Art has been beaten by half the tack on both his starts so far & needs improvement to get involved here.
New Tarabela failed to win in 10 starts on the level despite finishing 2nd 4 times, would not have to improve that much for a switch to the winter game to get involved here.
Norse Light broke his maiden on the flat on his 9th start, he is a half brother to the 115 rated hurdler Odin who was 3rd in a Listed hurdle at Market Rasen in the summer. Plenty of appeal on paper so one to note.
Rathealy really shouldn't make a hurdler on breeding but has already been 2nd at Plumpton but regressed on his next run at Warwick last time, plenty to do here.
Tea In Transvaal only won the one race on the level a Salisbury maiden on heavy as a 2yo but has got progressively worse ever since, stamina for hurdling is a concern.
Not a race I would bet in.
Aurore D'Estruval should have things all her own way in the Listed Mares Hurdle after her fine run behind Irving in the Fighting Fifth, she is well clear of her opponents on ratings.
A decent 2 mile handicap chase features the enigmatic Mr Mole who was on his best behaviour last time at Exeter, he has plenty of raw ability & has always looked the type who would be up to being rated in the high 150's so of his current mark there is plenty of room for improvement.
Desert Cry resumes after a long break on a career high mark which may well be his undoing here.
William's Wishes won this race at the end of his winning spree back in 2013 off a mark of 144, he has run well in the face of extreme tasks on his 2 starts back so far over hurdles & in The Tingle Creek last time. This is easier & he should be up to competing from his current mark.
Parsnip Pete needs good ground to be at his very best & has struggled from his new mark on his last 2 starts.
Brick Red was readily outpointed by Mr Mole last time & has plenty on his plate judged on his other form.
Le Bacardy has shown precious little this season after ending last season winning in Listed company at Ayr, this race looks tougher than he is used too.
Desert Cry resumes after a long break on a career high mark which may well be his undoing here.
William's Wishes won this race at the end of his winning spree back in 2013 off a mark of 144, he has run well in the face of extreme tasks on his 2 starts back so far over hurdles & in The Tingle Creek last time. This is easier & he should be up to competing from his current mark.
Parsnip Pete needs good ground to be at his very best & has struggled from his new mark on his last 2 starts.
Brick Red was readily outpointed by Mr Mole last time & has plenty on his plate judged on his other form.
Le Bacardy has shown precious little this season after ending last season winning in Listed company at Ayr, this race looks tougher than he is used too.
Jumps Road has chances on his best form which has so far resulted in 2 second places so far but he does tend to get outpaced at the end of his races so is always vulnerable. Dance Floor King completed his hat trick at Ascot just before Christmas moving steadily up through the grades, he has to be respected as an in-form runner from a low weight.
Mr Mole should go extremely close but overall its a race I will not be getting involved with.
Yet another of the former Pipe inmates for Walters Plant Hire makes his debut for a new trainer in the 2 mile handicap hurdle, like Top Gamble & Edmund Kean before him Tanerko Emery now returns after a extended break of 400 days formerly a useful hurdler (2nd in an Imperial Cup back in 2013) he then mixed chasing with hurdles before falling on his last start in a graded event at Newbury last year.
He has now switched to the still in-form Philip Hobbs stable & rates an extremely interesting player.
Amore Alato ran well on his reappearance in a similar course & distance handicap but was readily held / out battled by the none too consistent Snake Eyes which is a concern for a race like this but his stable are in good form & he may well have needed his first run last time.
First Avenue remains too high in the handicap to get involved.
Balgarry went off far too fast in the Ladbroke but was still there 3 out until weakening quickly, sure to have improved for that & a contender here.
Leviathan struggled on his last start here from a new mark after winning previously on bad ground at Ascot, still remains high enough to be written off here though.
Song Light resumed his progress that he has shown through the summer when winning comfortably last time out albeit off an extremely light weight, his young claimer again takes the ride here so the extra 7lb will offset the rise in class but he will still need to improve.
Baby King is exceedingly lightly raced with just the 2 starts under rules a win on his debut in March back in Ireland & a fall on his UK debut when he was favourite last time out where he travelled well before falling a couple of hurdles out when held. Completely unexposed for this kind of race so ticks plenty of boxes although the fall last time is a slight concern.
Rock On Rocky won 2 minor races in November before refusing to race after just 3 hurdles last time out which has to be a huge concern here.
Desert Recluse couldn't win a claiming hurdle last time at Ludlow & all his best form is on decent ground, plenty on his plate here.
Bouvreuil makes his UK debut for the in-form Paul Nicholls & Sean Bowen combination, he won on his last French start in a decent race sure to be well fancied here.
Rayvin Black tends to race freely in his races which limits his chances of getting involved at the business end, if he can be tamed he is more than capable of taking advantage of this mark in a race such as this.
Tanerko Emery 11/1 Bet365 is well worth chancing on his first start for the Philip Hobbs stable.
Perhaps the best race of the whole card is saved until the last hurrah with some decent handicap chasers stepping out on what is sure to be testing enough ground come 3:35; last year's shock Hennessy winner Triolo D'Alene heads the weights after pulling up in this year's version. He remains far too high in the handicap to be interested in here.
Vino Griego was also pulled up in the Henessey at Newbury, he is capable of getting involved from his current mark but ever since his winning spree in 2013 he has struggled to get his head back in front.
Unioniste seems to have been around forever but is still only 7, his form tailed off badly at the end of last season but he returned with a highly encouraging 6th in the Henessey, he looks well in on his current mark under man of the moment Noel Fehily & must hold excellent claims here.
Tinker Time has 2 wins against his name on his last 2 starts but those were fortuitous wins, the small field Graduation event he won at Newbury last time fell apart while his previous win at Kempton was a similar event as he was left in front 4 out due to some calamitous jumping (only 2 finished). Plenty on his plate upped in grade here.
Relax will appreciate the return to a right handed track after losing plenty of ground at his fences at Chepstow last time, that run will have brought him on so with ground in his favour he is respected.
Bertie Boru is progressing rapidly this season showing a never say die attitude to get up in the dying strides at Newbury last time, open to any amount of improvement at this trip & unwise to discount.
What's Happening was a one paced 3rd in the London National here last time so the drop back in trip will suit but he remains vulnerable.
Count Guido Deiro was impressive in bad ground at Lingfield in early December, he stays & acts on the ground plus has the services of the excellent Jamie Bargary so is another with a chance although improvement is required upped in grade here.
Ballyallia Man usually struggles of marks this high & he did too much on the lead over this trip in an amateur riders event last time.
Firm Order won that amateurs event in good style last time but will need more upped in grade & it will be a big test for his amateur rider who only has 3 rules wins to his name. Hold Court gained another win at his beloved Ludlow last time (now a 5 time course winner), his best form has come on decent ground & this looks too tough.
On Trend was well behind Bertie Boru on his return & had kind of lost his way last season despite one win at Exeter. He is well handicapped on his win at Sandown in a similar race back in Feb 2013 on heavy, interesting outsider at a price to hit the frame.
Unioniste is yet another Nicholls runner who holds outstanding claims on the card & has been backed accordingly but Bertie Boru has shown a likeable attitude so far this season so at 9/1 BetVictor / Stan James / Coral he is well worth backing.
He has now switched to the still in-form Philip Hobbs stable & rates an extremely interesting player.
Amore Alato ran well on his reappearance in a similar course & distance handicap but was readily held / out battled by the none too consistent Snake Eyes which is a concern for a race like this but his stable are in good form & he may well have needed his first run last time.
First Avenue remains too high in the handicap to get involved.
Balgarry went off far too fast in the Ladbroke but was still there 3 out until weakening quickly, sure to have improved for that & a contender here.
Leviathan struggled on his last start here from a new mark after winning previously on bad ground at Ascot, still remains high enough to be written off here though.
Song Light resumed his progress that he has shown through the summer when winning comfortably last time out albeit off an extremely light weight, his young claimer again takes the ride here so the extra 7lb will offset the rise in class but he will still need to improve.
Baby King is exceedingly lightly raced with just the 2 starts under rules a win on his debut in March back in Ireland & a fall on his UK debut when he was favourite last time out where he travelled well before falling a couple of hurdles out when held. Completely unexposed for this kind of race so ticks plenty of boxes although the fall last time is a slight concern.
Rock On Rocky won 2 minor races in November before refusing to race after just 3 hurdles last time out which has to be a huge concern here.
Desert Recluse couldn't win a claiming hurdle last time at Ludlow & all his best form is on decent ground, plenty on his plate here.
Bouvreuil makes his UK debut for the in-form Paul Nicholls & Sean Bowen combination, he won on his last French start in a decent race sure to be well fancied here.
Rayvin Black tends to race freely in his races which limits his chances of getting involved at the business end, if he can be tamed he is more than capable of taking advantage of this mark in a race such as this.
Tanerko Emery 11/1 Bet365 is well worth chancing on his first start for the Philip Hobbs stable.
Perhaps the best race of the whole card is saved until the last hurrah with some decent handicap chasers stepping out on what is sure to be testing enough ground come 3:35; last year's shock Hennessy winner Triolo D'Alene heads the weights after pulling up in this year's version. He remains far too high in the handicap to be interested in here.
Vino Griego was also pulled up in the Henessey at Newbury, he is capable of getting involved from his current mark but ever since his winning spree in 2013 he has struggled to get his head back in front.
Unioniste seems to have been around forever but is still only 7, his form tailed off badly at the end of last season but he returned with a highly encouraging 6th in the Henessey, he looks well in on his current mark under man of the moment Noel Fehily & must hold excellent claims here.
Tinker Time has 2 wins against his name on his last 2 starts but those were fortuitous wins, the small field Graduation event he won at Newbury last time fell apart while his previous win at Kempton was a similar event as he was left in front 4 out due to some calamitous jumping (only 2 finished). Plenty on his plate upped in grade here.
Relax will appreciate the return to a right handed track after losing plenty of ground at his fences at Chepstow last time, that run will have brought him on so with ground in his favour he is respected.
Bertie Boru is progressing rapidly this season showing a never say die attitude to get up in the dying strides at Newbury last time, open to any amount of improvement at this trip & unwise to discount.
What's Happening was a one paced 3rd in the London National here last time so the drop back in trip will suit but he remains vulnerable.
Count Guido Deiro was impressive in bad ground at Lingfield in early December, he stays & acts on the ground plus has the services of the excellent Jamie Bargary so is another with a chance although improvement is required upped in grade here.
Ballyallia Man usually struggles of marks this high & he did too much on the lead over this trip in an amateur riders event last time.
Firm Order won that amateurs event in good style last time but will need more upped in grade & it will be a big test for his amateur rider who only has 3 rules wins to his name. Hold Court gained another win at his beloved Ludlow last time (now a 5 time course winner), his best form has come on decent ground & this looks too tough.
On Trend was well behind Bertie Boru on his return & had kind of lost his way last season despite one win at Exeter. He is well handicapped on his win at Sandown in a similar race back in Feb 2013 on heavy, interesting outsider at a price to hit the frame.
Unioniste is yet another Nicholls runner who holds outstanding claims on the card & has been backed accordingly but Bertie Boru has shown a likeable attitude so far this season so at 9/1 BetVictor / Stan James / Coral he is well worth backing.
@fttfracing
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