Thank the lord!! The DWCC is finally back for 2015, I have tried to get into the NH racing here but for me it has failed once again even with reasonable ground the racing has been average & disappointing at best in fact I watched just one race over the whole festive period.
But my prayers have been answered as top quality Flat racing has returned every Thursday for the next 8 weeks & throw in a couple of Saturday fixtures before the big one at the end of March, I am quite literally sizzling with excitement.
This year of course we have the added conundrum of a new Dirt surface at Meydan which in the local lead up meetings has been receiving praise & as a race watcher it has looked to have settled in nicely before the opening night of the Carnival.
As with any Dirt surface there will be many horses who just do not act on it at all but in the 28 races run on it so far there has been a good spread of sires whose progeny have acted well on the new surface.
So far the top sire as you would expect is a former US based horse the late much missed Street Cry with 4 winners followed closely by Super Sire Dubawi (3 winners) whose progeny go on any surface as his record proves.
Other US sires to have had more than one winner are Indian Charlie, Distorted Humor & Hard Spun.
While on the European front the excellent Shamardal, Pivotal & surprisingly Kheleyf have sired 2 winners each.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is how many predominantly Turf sires have had winners on the dirt with 15 of the 28 races run so far going to European sires including Cape Cross, Invincible Spirit, King's Best, Iffraaj, Piccolo & Echo Of Light,
there is one common denominator in these results, all bar 2 of the 10 individual sires who have had winners are with or formerly with Sheikh Mohammed's Darley operation which is no real surprise on home dirt.
there is one common denominator in these results, all bar 2 of the 10 individual sires who have had winners are with or formerly with Sheikh Mohammed's Darley operation which is no real surprise on home dirt.
So the Euro's have it so far with 7 Individual US or South American sires having had winners on Meydan's Dirt surface so far (the other sires to have had at least one individual winner are; More Than Ready, Bernardini & Equal Stripes).
This indicates that Meydan's Dirt surface is less testing than a typical North American surface & thus an adaptable European bred horse has every chance of acting on it. The main reason for this is of course the climate in Dubai is much hotter & rarely gets rain so the Dirt binds together tighter allowing for a much more even surface, this has been born out over the weeks as in the first two weeks the kickback was tremendous where the surface had not been used in a race but in recent weeks the kickback has lessened so much so that one of the winners came from far off the pace which is rare in Dirt racing.
So far in the 28 races a distinct pattern has emerged to the outcome of a race, 22 of the 28 races have been won by horses that either track the leader or sit just off the pace in mid-division which means that unlike North American racing where all out pace is the key (ie front runners predominantly hold sway) so far at Meydan it is all about a horse who has the ability to travel into a race off a decent pace before unleashing a finishing kick.
Only 5 races have been won by horses that have made all & just the one race at the most recent meeting has been won by a horse coming from well of the pace.
In the lesser races it has been the top rated horse who has come out on top which is why so many European sires have done well as their progeny tend to be more highly rated.
On the trainer & jockey front it's perhaps no real surprise that former US trainer Doug Watson has hit the ground running with 9 winners so far followed closely by Satish Seemar who's stable has been on fire with 8 winners so far.
Mike De Kock ominously came to the boil quickly with his first runner winning comfortably recently. Godolphin start out with there first runners on Thursday, they usually dominate in these early weeks especially Saeed Bin Suroor's half of the operation, the dirt surface has been well tested by the boys in blue & with so many US bred animals in their care that statistic should continue.
The excellent & often underrated Richard Mullen has also taken to the new surface like a duck to water with 7 winners so far & perhaps more importantly his race positioning has had him involved in many other races as so far from 25 rides he has finished in the top 5 positions 21 times.
Just behind him are Pat Dobbs & much maligned by Godolphin Silvestre De Sousa who have ridden 6 winners each, SDS has had 18 finishing positions in the top 5 places from 26 rides whilst Dobbs has 19 finishing positions in the top 5 places from 25 rides.
It is sure to be a big Carnival for Godolphin new boys James Doyle (SBS) & William Buick now first choice for Charlie Appleby although he is not available for Thursday's opening action so an able deputy in Adam Kirby takes the reigns on the stables runners.
Both riders have a long history with the Carnival indeed it was Doyle's ride on Cityscape in 2012 that propelled him to future stardom as it was in 2010 with Buick on Dar Re Mi.
Just behind him are Pat Dobbs & much maligned by Godolphin Silvestre De Sousa who have ridden 6 winners each, SDS has had 18 finishing positions in the top 5 places from 26 rides whilst Dobbs has 19 finishing positions in the top 5 places from 25 rides.
It is sure to be a big Carnival for Godolphin new boys James Doyle (SBS) & William Buick now first choice for Charlie Appleby although he is not available for Thursday's opening action so an able deputy in Adam Kirby takes the reigns on the stables runners.
Both riders have a long history with the Carnival indeed it was Doyle's ride on Cityscape in 2012 that propelled him to future stardom as it was in 2010 with Buick on Dar Re Mi.
Remember to look out for the Trakus data this year which will be more useful than ever on a dirt surface although I would also trust your eyes & instinct as they are not often wrong.
So to the action & honestly you could not wish for a better opening night than the one we have in store on Thursday; As it is the first meeting of the Carnival caution is advised in betting there are plenty more weeks to find a winner or two.
Race 1 is a Handicap over 9.5f on Dirt for horses rated 95 -105;
Quirky old rogue Berling heads the weights, now trained in Scandinavia his last run was a well beaten 10th behind Berkshire in the Darley Stakes at Newmarket last year.
His form on dirt in Norway & Sweden has been poor so it must be a concern for his ability to act on it here as is the way he races where he regularly drops himself out, he does have one piece of form admittedly on Turf that would give him a chance which is his second to last start when he beat last year's easy Carnival winner Avon Pearl in a Listed event at Taby.
El Estruendoso should have won at least once at the Carnival last year but appeared to not be truly in love with the game, he races off a career high mark now so has plenty on his plate although this will be his first experience of dirt & he is bred to handle it so with Super Soumi on board a bold showing is likely.
El Estruendoso should have won at least once at the Carnival last year but appeared to not be truly in love with the game, he races off a career high mark now so has plenty on his plate although this will be his first experience of dirt & he is bred to handle it so with Super Soumi on board a bold showing is likely.
Stablemate former Chester Vase winner Mickdaam has a big chance on ratings if he adapts to dirt & if he retains any of his former ability. He showed little in 2 runs last year but is a former winner of an Al Bastakiya on the Tapeta.
Farrier is on a pretty decent mark on back form & ran a hugely encouraging race here in an excellent Listed race last time out, he was slightly hampered there too so could well have finished closer.
Busker ran well at the same meeting in another quality Listed event last time where he looked in dire need of the run, his mark could be problematique as he is 5lbs higher than his last win in the equivalent race on Tapeta last year but being by Street Cry the dirt surface could really suit on his 2nd run back from a break.
Dragon Falls had a frustrating time at last year's Carnival but returns this time from what looks a workable mark especially as he now encounters a surface that should improve him after an encouraging run at Wolverhampton back in October. Fascinating to see how he gets on as Godolphin's first runner at the Carnival this year from a stable that continues in good form back in the UK with the few runners that have been kept for the AW Championships.
Henry Clay has already shown a liking to the Dirt surface here with 3 excellent runs so far including an all the way success last time, he is up in the weights again here & faces better opposition but is worthy of note given his current form.
La Bernardin caused a bit of a surprise when making the most of a hugely reduced mark here back in November, he followed that up with a solid 4th in a good Listed race (Busker just ahead). Needs to improve again here so a place looks the best he can hope for.
Quick Wit has been capable of much higher marks in the past but in a few runs last year he showed little promise. He is James Doyle's first Carnival ride as Saeed Bin Suroor's Number 1 so it will be interesting to see how goes especially being an Oasis Dream on dirt.
Torchlighter makes his UAE debut for new trainer Saeed Bin Ghadayer who has his background in Sheikh Mohammed's second love Endurance Racing, he has now embarked on a new career as a Thoroughbred trainer for new owners to the sport Fazza Racing & as you would also expect he has picked up a few ex Godolphin cast offs.
Torchlighter has plenty to find in this grade from his current mark as he encounters dirt for the first time, his sire Shamardal has already produced 2 winners so far but being a ex Mark Johnston trainee at the Carnival has provided limited success over the years.
Almoonqith won a very poor turf race at the Carnival last year & was then found out on the Tapeta next time. Still relatively lightly raced his mark of 95 can be improved on if he finds improvement from the dirt surface that his pedigree suggests. Interesting but may be for later in the meeting.
I'm Back needs the dirt to spring him into life as he looks held in this company judging on his last few runs, for all Wolverhampton last October was an ok run he did have the run of the race & was beaten by a horse that wouldn't be up to competing in this class.
Farrier is on a pretty decent mark on back form & ran a hugely encouraging race here in an excellent Listed race last time out, he was slightly hampered there too so could well have finished closer.
Busker ran well at the same meeting in another quality Listed event last time where he looked in dire need of the run, his mark could be problematique as he is 5lbs higher than his last win in the equivalent race on Tapeta last year but being by Street Cry the dirt surface could really suit on his 2nd run back from a break.
Dragon Falls had a frustrating time at last year's Carnival but returns this time from what looks a workable mark especially as he now encounters a surface that should improve him after an encouraging run at Wolverhampton back in October. Fascinating to see how he gets on as Godolphin's first runner at the Carnival this year from a stable that continues in good form back in the UK with the few runners that have been kept for the AW Championships.
Henry Clay has already shown a liking to the Dirt surface here with 3 excellent runs so far including an all the way success last time, he is up in the weights again here & faces better opposition but is worthy of note given his current form.
La Bernardin caused a bit of a surprise when making the most of a hugely reduced mark here back in November, he followed that up with a solid 4th in a good Listed race (Busker just ahead). Needs to improve again here so a place looks the best he can hope for.
Quick Wit has been capable of much higher marks in the past but in a few runs last year he showed little promise. He is James Doyle's first Carnival ride as Saeed Bin Suroor's Number 1 so it will be interesting to see how goes especially being an Oasis Dream on dirt.
Torchlighter makes his UAE debut for new trainer Saeed Bin Ghadayer who has his background in Sheikh Mohammed's second love Endurance Racing, he has now embarked on a new career as a Thoroughbred trainer for new owners to the sport Fazza Racing & as you would also expect he has picked up a few ex Godolphin cast offs.
Torchlighter has plenty to find in this grade from his current mark as he encounters dirt for the first time, his sire Shamardal has already produced 2 winners so far but being a ex Mark Johnston trainee at the Carnival has provided limited success over the years.
Almoonqith won a very poor turf race at the Carnival last year & was then found out on the Tapeta next time. Still relatively lightly raced his mark of 95 can be improved on if he finds improvement from the dirt surface that his pedigree suggests. Interesting but may be for later in the meeting.
I'm Back needs the dirt to spring him into life as he looks held in this company judging on his last few runs, for all Wolverhampton last October was an ok run he did have the run of the race & was beaten by a horse that wouldn't be up to competing in this class.
Some interesting runners notably Dragon Falls & Almoonqith but it seems logical to stick with a local runner in the shape of Farrier (Unplaced).
Race 2 sees the Turf come out to play at Meydan for the first time since last year's Carnival this time over the minimum 5 furlongs.
Ahtoug enjoyed a fine Carnival last time around but failed to reproduce that form back in the UK, he is more than capable of getting involved here & is respected.
Quite what former Australian Ajeeb will make of this is unclear, he was running over 8 & 7 furlongs back in Australia with little success, he looks harshly handicapped so can only be watched here. Sir Maximilian enjoyed a tremendously productive 2014 in the UK & Ireland winning 4 times including 2 Listed races, he should love Dubai & could easily end up in the Al Quoz come World Cup night. Holds excellent claims here.
Hototo remains hard to place from his current mark as he refuses to run a bad race, sure to make another bold bid again here but vulnerable to a finisher.
The much improved Caspian Prince should push Hototo all the way for the lead & may well out battle him for that honour, whoever beats him will know they've had a race.
Saayerr has now joined Dhruba Selvaratnam's stable after an interrupted campaign in the UK last year, he was 2nd in a weak Group 3 at Newcastle (Sir Maximilian in behind) & has already tried the UAE with a reasonable run on the dirt at Jebel Ali. Formerly a useful 2yo its not unrealistic to think that as a 4yo he could come back to where he was as so many speedy youngster's do. Ajjaadd has earnt his chance to live the dream for his small owners & small trainer, formerly with Godolphin he didn't make the grade but has really repaid his current connections in spades. 2nd in a Stewards Cup 2 years ago, he returned late last year with some fine runs in defeat in a Group 3 & only just getting caught at Doncaster late on in the season. The stumbling block here is his mark of 102, as an 9yo he is not getting any younger so it will take a big performance against quality opposition from that mark. Speed Hawk runs for former Derby winning owner Khalifa Dasmal (Shaamit 1996), he showed steady improvement throughout last season winning at Yarmouth in grand style on his last start, he looks well up to a mark of 102 & is a danger.
The much improved Caspian Prince should push Hototo all the way for the lead & may well out battle him for that honour, whoever beats him will know they've had a race.
Saayerr has now joined Dhruba Selvaratnam's stable after an interrupted campaign in the UK last year, he was 2nd in a weak Group 3 at Newcastle (Sir Maximilian in behind) & has already tried the UAE with a reasonable run on the dirt at Jebel Ali. Formerly a useful 2yo its not unrealistic to think that as a 4yo he could come back to where he was as so many speedy youngster's do. Ajjaadd has earnt his chance to live the dream for his small owners & small trainer, formerly with Godolphin he didn't make the grade but has really repaid his current connections in spades. 2nd in a Stewards Cup 2 years ago, he returned late last year with some fine runs in defeat in a Group 3 & only just getting caught at Doncaster late on in the season. The stumbling block here is his mark of 102, as an 9yo he is not getting any younger so it will take a big performance against quality opposition from that mark. Speed Hawk runs for former Derby winning owner Khalifa Dasmal (Shaamit 1996), he showed steady improvement throughout last season winning at Yarmouth in grand style on his last start, he looks well up to a mark of 102 & is a danger.
Fityaan was impressive at Jebel Ali first time out making the most of a lenient mark, he has since run 2 good races in defeat. He won this race at odds of 50/1 in 2013 & was 9th last year, returns to the Turf on a favourable mark so another bold show would be no surprise. Mushir has generally been caught between two stools so far in his short career, not good enough to carry top weight in UK handicaps & not good enough to contest Group contest. He has had 2 starts in the UAE with an unplaced effort in a decent Listed event here in December & he looked all at sea at Jebel Ali last time. Can only be watched here.
A race I think I will be watching depending on the price nearer the time of course.
A race I think I will be watching depending on the price nearer the time of course.
Race 3 is 7f on Dirt for horses rated 97 - 105, verging on Group class performers at their best; Tamarkuz came into last season's Carnival as a horse all the wise guys expected to go very well & progress, he didn't......he looked laboured on his first start & then unseated on his 2nd. His rating has not dropped since & although he should be fine on the surface his mark looks troublesome.
Master Of War formerly a Listed race winning 2yo for Richard Hannon has enjoyed some success in the UAE with a win at last year's Carnival & a win back in November at Abu Dhabi although upped in Grade next time of 105 he was easily brushed aside, now he tries dirt a surface which has to a worry for this son of Compton Place.
Shaishee has been one of the standout performers of the domestic season so far with 2 comfortable wins here, no reason to see him not being involved once more.
Master Of War formerly a Listed race winning 2yo for Richard Hannon has enjoyed some success in the UAE with a win at last year's Carnival & a win back in November at Abu Dhabi although upped in Grade next time of 105 he was easily brushed aside, now he tries dirt a surface which has to a worry for this son of Compton Place.
Shaishee has been one of the standout performers of the domestic season so far with 2 comfortable wins here, no reason to see him not being involved once more.
Old Disa Leader returns for a 4th straight Carnival, he has been competitive from marks in & around his current rating each year. On breeding he should have no problem with the new surface but you would imagine he would be better for the run.
Figure Of Speech's attitude gradually worsened as a 2yo & he showed little to change that in that was a poor season for 3yo's last time around. Unsure on his ability to act on the dirt.
Decathlete was thought to be one of Godolphin's France's better 3yo's last season but failed to justify that hype with down the field runs in the Moulin & Daniel Wildenstein, he has now switched to new trainer Saeed Al Ghadayer & encounters dirt for the first time which on his breeding is a query, his American sire has had plenty of success on dirt but his dam has only produced turf runners. Clearly highly regarded last year a mark of 101 could underplay his ability if he adapts to the surface, interesting.
Frontier Fighter represents the excellent David O'Meara stable who enjoyed success last year with Mont Ras, dirt is an unknown but he does handle Polytrack fine & has remained in good form.
Silent Bullet was last seen when down the field at Goodwood, that run was not a true reflection as he met plenty of trouble in running, ability to handle the dirt has to be taken on trust but is certainly an interesting one for the rest of the Carnival probably back on turf.
Spirit Of Battle like last season looks to be on a favourable mark & he has handled Jebel Ali's Dirt surface fine in the past. Likely to need this first run however. Whether Bannock truly deserves his weight rise after finishing 2nd in a distinctly average race last time is debatable but at least he showed that he handles the dirt surface & of course he has plenty of back class.
Full Combat did not achieve what was expected of him last season, his sire had minor dirt form as a young horse but found his best form on Turf in the states so it is questionable if he will handle the surface, if he does than his mark could look quite inviting.
Price Is Truth has been devastating on his last 2 starts winning by a reduced 2.5 lengths last time (was miles clear turning for home) & by 13 lengths at Sharjah, those wins came from marks of 60 & 77 respectively, he now races from a mark of 98 so he must again find plenty of improvement but with the manner of his last 2 wins that is certainly not out of the question.
Faulkner is unbeaten in his 2 racecourse starts so far at Jebel Ali & here at Meydan last time when he defeated a last time out winner Satwa Story in taking style, open to any amount of improvement & a danger to all here.
Giftorm is another Scandinavian raider who has been running well enough in his homeland without looking like winning until his last effort when a good 3rd on dirt at Jagerso, mark of 97 doesn't leave much room for error though.
This Plenty of interest once more but it looks between three local horses who have been in outstanding form Price is Truth, Shaishee & Faulkner, slight preference is for the unbeaten Faulkner (WON 4/1) who has looked very good in 2 starts.
Figure Of Speech's attitude gradually worsened as a 2yo & he showed little to change that in that was a poor season for 3yo's last time around. Unsure on his ability to act on the dirt.
Decathlete was thought to be one of Godolphin's France's better 3yo's last season but failed to justify that hype with down the field runs in the Moulin & Daniel Wildenstein, he has now switched to new trainer Saeed Al Ghadayer & encounters dirt for the first time which on his breeding is a query, his American sire has had plenty of success on dirt but his dam has only produced turf runners. Clearly highly regarded last year a mark of 101 could underplay his ability if he adapts to the surface, interesting.
Frontier Fighter represents the excellent David O'Meara stable who enjoyed success last year with Mont Ras, dirt is an unknown but he does handle Polytrack fine & has remained in good form.
Silent Bullet was last seen when down the field at Goodwood, that run was not a true reflection as he met plenty of trouble in running, ability to handle the dirt has to be taken on trust but is certainly an interesting one for the rest of the Carnival probably back on turf.
Spirit Of Battle like last season looks to be on a favourable mark & he has handled Jebel Ali's Dirt surface fine in the past. Likely to need this first run however. Whether Bannock truly deserves his weight rise after finishing 2nd in a distinctly average race last time is debatable but at least he showed that he handles the dirt surface & of course he has plenty of back class.
Full Combat did not achieve what was expected of him last season, his sire had minor dirt form as a young horse but found his best form on Turf in the states so it is questionable if he will handle the surface, if he does than his mark could look quite inviting.
Price Is Truth has been devastating on his last 2 starts winning by a reduced 2.5 lengths last time (was miles clear turning for home) & by 13 lengths at Sharjah, those wins came from marks of 60 & 77 respectively, he now races from a mark of 98 so he must again find plenty of improvement but with the manner of his last 2 wins that is certainly not out of the question.
Faulkner is unbeaten in his 2 racecourse starts so far at Jebel Ali & here at Meydan last time when he defeated a last time out winner Satwa Story in taking style, open to any amount of improvement & a danger to all here.
Giftorm is another Scandinavian raider who has been running well enough in his homeland without looking like winning until his last effort when a good 3rd on dirt at Jagerso, mark of 97 doesn't leave much room for error though.
This Plenty of interest once more but it looks between three local horses who have been in outstanding form Price is Truth, Shaishee & Faulkner, slight preference is for the unbeaten Faulkner (WON 4/1) who has looked very good in 2 starts.
An excellent renewal of the Singspiel is up next over 9f on the Turf;
Old Meandre heads the field a 4 time Group 1 winner in his prime but as most of you know those were extremely poor Group 1's & he has failed to reproduce that form in the UAE so far, his best run however last year was first time out in a handicap off this mark so maybe he's best caught fresh.
True Story the horse who ended Kieran Fallon's Godolphin reincarnation returns to the track now a gelding & more importantly a 4yo.
He promised throughout last year to be much better at 4 as a stronger horse, the gelding operation was predictable for a horse who failed in his lofty targets.
Don't forget with hindsight his form is not bad on his last run he ran Al Kazeem to half a length (Al Kazeem then went on to be part of the race of the season in the Champion Stakes), Hillstar a subsequent Grade 1 winner finished ahead of him at Haydock, his run in the Eclipse was perfectly respectable & on the face of it his Dante run behind The Grey Gatsby was top class. Kieran always said he wanted good fast ground & he has that on Thursday for the first time since he demolished his field in the Fieldan last season.
From the reports I have had the stable are very happy with him & are expecting a profitable season.
Grand old Mushreq returns to battle in another Carnival, he won what was arguably a slightly weaker renewal of this race last year on his seasonal debut but did it in good style. Sure to have been primed for a repeat he must go close.
Samurai Sword ran with credit in similar races last year but usually found a few too good & that will be the likely outcome here.
Be Ready has made it back to the racetrack which is great news considering the reports I had on him in mid summer last year. He got badly jarred up at Newmarket in the Craven & it was thought that he may never race again but given the time by Godolphin he returns here to see if can fulfill that 2yo potential he had.
On homework there is not much between him & True Story although being a bigger horse he is likely to need the race more than his stablemate plus of course first & foremost lets hope he comes back sound.
Izaaj has been around in the UAE forever & he will try his best but that will still leave him with plenty to find here.
Warbird is miles below the class required in a race such as this, a useful if slightly overrated handicapper back in Ireland last year he struggled plenty of times in handicaps & in conditions events.
Sanshaawes enjoyed a fine Carnival last year winning on Tapeta & Turf before running a big 2nd in Round 3 of the Maktoum Challenge but that race was run at a crawl which did not suit many in behind including African Story who subsequently blew him out of the water in the World Cup. His last run came in Hong Kong when he was again easily put in his place by the locals. Still he returns here as one of the top rated horses & can get involved if he's fit enough.
Pilote completes the field on his first start for rookie trainer Saeed Bin Ghadayer who also saddles Warbird; Pilote was a useful 3yo who ran in behind Vancouverite & others but usually lacked a change of pace required by a top class horse. He enjoyed a fruitless 4yo campaign with the one shining light a 2nd to Graphic in a Group 3 so he has work to do here.
Honestly I think I will be quite disappointed if True Story (WON 9/4) cannot make a winning comeback.
The feature event on the first night of the Carnival is Round 1 of The Al Maktoum Challenge a Group 3 event over the mile on dirt;
Recent impressive course & distance scorer Surfer heads them, a very classy individual on his day this could well be his year with the introduction on dirt to Meydan, the trip of a mile is his perfect trip so he must go very close.
Zahee has his own ideas about the game, after a winning a handicap last year he went onto be outclassed in Group events & is not bred for dirt.
Gold City owes his lofty rating to some decent runs in similar races at last year's Carnival although he was readily outpointed on each occasion & finished well behind Surfer on his return.
Ennobled Friend chased home Surfer last time by far the best run of his blighted career, needs to step up in this company but could well do so.
Mashaaref has been mainly running up the hill at Jebel Ali throughout his UAE career with limited success & has plenty to find here.
Royal Ridge was only seen once when a promising 5th in a handicap in a handicap on opening night last year, his form at the 2013 Carnival had been progressive & he has one piece of Jebel Ali form which suggests as his breeding does that he will be fine on Meydan's new dirt surface, interesting one at a price.
Outstrip has overall been a huge disappointment since his 2yo days, certainly throughout last season he looked as though he was just a good 2yo but we had excuses in the Guineas when he scoped bad. He then ran as well as could be expected given the rides he received in the St James's Palace & Sussex but was hugely disappointing when expected to win the Joel before going to the Breeders Cup instead now he switches to dirt a surface which he has had no experience of but wait a minute his dam Asi Siempre is US bred & a Grade 1 winner on wait for it.....polytrack!!!.....although she did handle the dirt with a few placed efforts but not enough to suggest for me that her son by Australian sire Exceed And Excel will handle it. Just seems an odd odd race to run him & I would rather watch.
Zambucca couldn't handle Tapeta or Turf last year & looked well below the class required to get involved in these type of races. He has had a run in a useful Listed race here last month when appearing to hold every chance before quickly becoming outpaced when the pace eventually quickened on the home turn, the way that race panned out was indicative that being on the lead or close to it was a huge advantage as the first 3 were the first 3 home. Zambucca did run on steadily & was entitled to need that race after 4 months off. The real plus side is the new dirt surface (appeared to handle it well last time) which his UAE Derby winning sire Lundy's Liability excelled on winning Graded races in the states & he finished 7th in the 2005 Dubai World Cup (incidentally the year I went) so he might not be the no hoper we all thought he would be, could be one at silly odds after his run last month.
Haatheq is a consistent animal in these types of races always finishing there or there abouts, he has 2 runs this campaign finishing 2nd at Jebel & well behind Surfer here previously so has plenty to find.
Capital Attraction handles dirt at Jebel & has an American pedigree so should be fine here, he had a good campaign last year winning a handicap & placing in a couple of other races. Could be dangerous if allowed out on the lead so could easily make the frame at a price.
Grand Salute has some classy Uruguayan form to his name on dirt at trips in & around the mile, he looked in need of the run on his local debut behind Surfer but raced with some promise. Should strip fitter here & may get closer this time.
Emirates Flyer was a model of consistency in what was a poor year for 3yo's in the UAE last year, he stayed further than we all expected given his sprint pedigree but he lacks any real scope & has no form on dirt, his pedigree offers little hope that he will handle it either.
Frankyfourfingers has plenty of minor French provincial form to his name but this by far the toughest test he has ever faced let alone for his first start on dirt but over the years at the Carnival these kind of unexposed former French types have often excelled so he is worth watching.
Ocean Tempest barely made an impact at the 2014 Carnival but duly won the Lincoln on his return to the UK he followed that with 3 more wins & placed efforts in Group company. He handles all weather in the UK but would be not as good on that surface as he is on Turf so the ability to handle dirt from a pure turf pedigree is a massive concern. Empire Storm ran the best race of his Meydan stay in this event last year when almost making all under Kieran Fallon, he lost his way thereafter including when coming back to the UK but he found some form late on last year with a couple of placed efforts, again the ability handle the surface is a big concern.
Surfer (WON 9/2) holds excellent claims on the back of his recent win but will likely be short enough, Royal Ridge is more than interesting but I could well be crazy as I am going to chance Surfer's stablemate Zambucca (UNPLACED) at likely decent odds who can be expected to strip fitter effort on a surface that he should excel on so could easily make the frame.
The card ends with an extremely classy 7f Turf handicap for horses rated between 100 - 110; Iguazu Falls another Carnival veteran heads the weights, he was 2nd in this last year from this mark so is certainly not without hope despite his advancing years.
Tawhid makes his Carnival debut on ground that will most likely be too fast for this mud loving rogue who has plenty of ability but rarely consents to use it, there are bits & pieces of form on firm ground which offer some hope as does a fast pace on a turning track, chances. Short Squeeze has a patchy profile since rising through the ranks 2 seasons ago, he was given a peach by Pat Smullen at York in the summer but then ran flat at Haydock in a Group 3, another who will enjoy the strong pace so has chances.
Another Party an ex French minor pattern performer makes his debut for Jamie Osborne from a reasonable looking mark, his best form has come on decent ground so he is yet another for the growing shortlist. Merhee showed plenty of promise on his Carnival debut last season over 6f but then failed to build on that & now looks on a high enough mark stepping up in trip. Professor changed hands at the horses in training sale last year after another year of general under-achievement after what was a cracking effort in the Wokingham, this is his trip but he surely remains in the grip of the handicapper.
Almargo had a busy campaign as most 3yo Mark Johnston handicappers do, the record of his former inmates in the UAE is fairly deplorable so I would rather watch.
Music Theory had just the 2 starts last season in mid summer & as recently as October on the all weather at Lingfield where he finished a good 2nd showing he retains plenty of ability, just the type to do well at the Carnival & has plenty of ticks.
Modern History has run with credit on opening night at the last 2 Carnival's including in this race last year when he finished 2nd, player if ready to roll once more for an in-form jockey / trainer combo.
Safety Check was disappointing on his last start at Newbury when upped to Listed company from a new mark, he had previously finished with a rare rattle in a good quality Ascot handicap. Young Cam Hardie's 3lb claim will be invaluable & it gives him hope of getting involved here.
Tamaathul another regular returned over 6f here recently showing little but will appreciate a return to the turf here off a very favourable handicap on old form.
Jally has been allotted a nice mark for his UAE debut, he has some minor French form including a 3rd in a Listed race on his penultimate start. Owners number one jockey has chosen old Tamaathul which suggests that Jally will need this but he remains open to improvement & it would not be the first time that the black cap came back first.
Ashaadd has patently not handled dirt on his last 5 starts & reverts to Turf on a mark only 5lbs higher than his last winning mark, the green stuff could easily spark him back into life so he is yet another interesting runner in a compact race.
Roi Du Vitesse has struggled for any form since a good 4th in this race on his return last year, useful as a 2yo in the UK & plenty of winning form in Qatar he has just failed to reproduce that here, his jockey's claim gives him the lightest weight he has had to carry for a long time but that still gives him limited appeal in such a hot race.
An incredibly tight race to end the card & one to tape as there will be plenty of winners emerging from it. My shortlist would include Music Theory, Tawhid, Another Party & Ashaadd.
@fttfracing
Remember to also follow these other Meydan Maestros throughout the Carnival;
@calumswanlaw
@calummadell
@jimgilch
@dubairacenight
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