Good evening to all & welcome along to the last of this year's #DWCC2015 blogs culminating with the big night itself this Saturday at Meydan.
Those of you who have stayed with me throughout the last 3 months were rewarded 3 weeks ago on 'Super Saturday' courtesy of a sprint double from Shaishee & Sir Maximilian at hugely rewarding odds.
Opening up World Cup is a simply superb renewal of the often underplayed Godolphin Mile but despite the deep field the race remains just about one horse in the hugely improved Tamarkuz who has blitzed his rivals from the front on his last 3 starts. He has drawn stall 1 in his biggest test to date which should prove ideal as long as continues his quick starting profile, it seems as though only he himself can impede his winning streak.
Free Wheeling has failed countless times in Group company but he has been in grand form so far this campaign with some solid efforts including a useful 6th on dirt, his front running style is a help but its doubtful he can outspeed Tamarkuz on his inside.
Quadrivium was no more than useful when trained in Ireland last season but has won on his only attempted start on dirt in the US in lowly allowance company, has a big task on in this company. Nolohay proved a front running revelation over a mile on his dirt debut last time in albeit a less competitive heat which was a huge shock for me personally as he had looked a cast iron stayer in Europe, great 2nd string for Sheikh Hamdan to have.
Bradestar is a useful dirt performer in the US who is capable in minor graded company, can get involved for place money at least.
Frankyfourfingers has enjoyed a thoroughly productive campaign winning Round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge before another decent effort last time, this is his perfect trip & he has to be involved, he could well give Tamarkuz a race.
Dark Emerald has been one of the feelgood stories of the Carnival with 2 wins & 2 seconds, he attempts dirt for the first time here which is a concern but he is such an amenable honest character who will no doubt give it his best shot, on breeding there is plenty of hope as Dark Angel gets plenty of all weather surface winners. He would bring the house down if he were to be involved in the places let alone if the gods all combined to allow him to win.
Prayer For Relief has been a decent US performer for the last 4 or 5 years but often falls short at this kind of level but is at least interesting on his first start for Mike De Kock. Graphic has improved markedly for the last 2 seasons from handicapper to minor Group & Listed performer on the continent, he won on his Tapeta debut at Wolverhampton a few months back, this is his dirt debut here although his sire gives plenty of hope that he will cope as does his aptitude for soft ground but even allowing for that he has plenty to do. Gold City is a solid Carnival horse who chased home Tamarkuz last time, his ability to handle the surface is a big plus & he has place chances.
Haatheq will run on through the kickback as he habitually does but not enough to get involved. Pylon was beaten out of sight on 'Super Saturday' & will likely struggle again here. Forjatt showed a committed attitude to win the Jebel Ali Mile on dirt last time & is a legitimate potential placer given his overall profile.
Layl has been another Carnival improver who ran a cracking race when staying on into 3rd behind Tamarkuz, of course he will need to find much more to be involved in the places here but he does have local advantage. Sloane Avenue after just a handful of starts is a more than useful UK All Weather performer who has a narrow verdict over the much improved dual Carnival winner Cladocera, most interesting contender for his first dirt start although the wide draw is a negative. Surfer has been dealt a harsh blow with the widest draw of all after an excellent campaign, he is back at his perfect trip & if he can negate his gate he has plenty more ability left to unwrap.
Frankyfourfingers has enjoyed a thoroughly productive campaign winning Round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge before another decent effort last time, this is his perfect trip & he has to be involved, he could well give Tamarkuz a race.
Dark Emerald has been one of the feelgood stories of the Carnival with 2 wins & 2 seconds, he attempts dirt for the first time here which is a concern but he is such an amenable honest character who will no doubt give it his best shot, on breeding there is plenty of hope as Dark Angel gets plenty of all weather surface winners. He would bring the house down if he were to be involved in the places let alone if the gods all combined to allow him to win.
Prayer For Relief has been a decent US performer for the last 4 or 5 years but often falls short at this kind of level but is at least interesting on his first start for Mike De Kock. Graphic has improved markedly for the last 2 seasons from handicapper to minor Group & Listed performer on the continent, he won on his Tapeta debut at Wolverhampton a few months back, this is his dirt debut here although his sire gives plenty of hope that he will cope as does his aptitude for soft ground but even allowing for that he has plenty to do. Gold City is a solid Carnival horse who chased home Tamarkuz last time, his ability to handle the surface is a big plus & he has place chances.
Haatheq will run on through the kickback as he habitually does but not enough to get involved. Pylon was beaten out of sight on 'Super Saturday' & will likely struggle again here. Forjatt showed a committed attitude to win the Jebel Ali Mile on dirt last time & is a legitimate potential placer given his overall profile.
Layl has been another Carnival improver who ran a cracking race when staying on into 3rd behind Tamarkuz, of course he will need to find much more to be involved in the places here but he does have local advantage. Sloane Avenue after just a handful of starts is a more than useful UK All Weather performer who has a narrow verdict over the much improved dual Carnival winner Cladocera, most interesting contender for his first dirt start although the wide draw is a negative. Surfer has been dealt a harsh blow with the widest draw of all after an excellent campaign, he is back at his perfect trip & if he can negate his gate he has plenty more ability left to unwrap.
Cannot see beyond Tamarkuz so no bet.
The stayers are up next in a fascinating renewal of the Dubai Gold Cup;
Dormello is a useful local who is on a hat trick after wins at Jebel & in a Group 3 at Abu Dhabi last time, this is the first time he has attempted a distance this far before, he should stay but won't be good enough.
Brass Ring will now appreciate the step up in trip as he showed decent form in staying races in the UK, capable of getting involved at a decent price.
Cooptado couldn't cut it on dirt & although he ran well enough back on turf he will be outclassed here. Mushreq has never shaped as a stayer & has appeared to fallen out of love with the game this Carnival. Dubday is the best horse in Qatar but thats not really worth shouting about although the standard is getting better, eking out his stamina should see more improvement but he has plenty to find with the best of these.
Star Empire has been a grand Carnival stalwart but overall this campaign he has disappointed until his good 3rd last time, always likely he will find younger legs to be out speeding near the finish. Marzocco came to all the top tables as a 3 year old yet still his best 2 runs were over 2 miles at Ascot, he reappeared with a good win at Chelmsford recently & deserves respect. Bathyrhon is a classy French stayer who brings some of the very best form into this event, he handles faster ground & he must go very close. Almoonqith put up a cracking display upped to 1m6f for the first time with a dominant show of power & stamina, on that run he will stay the extra few furlongs & must go close.
Havana Beat ran a thoroughly respectful trial behind Almoonqith & will appreciate the return to 2 miles, entitled to come on for that & can get involved. Meandre has run well enough since having his suspect stamina stretched out although the same question remains here. Vaasa has been running with credit at Abu Dhabi recently including in Group 3 company last time, stamina looks his strong point but he needs to find plenty of improvement. Rio Tigre kept up his progressive profile with a good effort in the trial last time, he should relish the step up to this trip & should get involved. Brown Panther steps out onto the Meydan Turf for the first time in his excellent career, he didn't enjoy the best of ends to what had been a cracking 2014 campaign with some bad experiences in Canada & a poor run in the Breeders Cup. He is back at his best trip here & should be ready to take this out on his first start of the year.
Brass Ring will now appreciate the step up in trip as he showed decent form in staying races in the UK, capable of getting involved at a decent price.
Cooptado couldn't cut it on dirt & although he ran well enough back on turf he will be outclassed here. Mushreq has never shaped as a stayer & has appeared to fallen out of love with the game this Carnival. Dubday is the best horse in Qatar but thats not really worth shouting about although the standard is getting better, eking out his stamina should see more improvement but he has plenty to find with the best of these.
Star Empire has been a grand Carnival stalwart but overall this campaign he has disappointed until his good 3rd last time, always likely he will find younger legs to be out speeding near the finish. Marzocco came to all the top tables as a 3 year old yet still his best 2 runs were over 2 miles at Ascot, he reappeared with a good win at Chelmsford recently & deserves respect. Bathyrhon is a classy French stayer who brings some of the very best form into this event, he handles faster ground & he must go very close. Almoonqith put up a cracking display upped to 1m6f for the first time with a dominant show of power & stamina, on that run he will stay the extra few furlongs & must go close.
Havana Beat ran a thoroughly respectful trial behind Almoonqith & will appreciate the return to 2 miles, entitled to come on for that & can get involved. Meandre has run well enough since having his suspect stamina stretched out although the same question remains here. Vaasa has been running with credit at Abu Dhabi recently including in Group 3 company last time, stamina looks his strong point but he needs to find plenty of improvement. Rio Tigre kept up his progressive profile with a good effort in the trial last time, he should relish the step up to this trip & should get involved. Brown Panther steps out onto the Meydan Turf for the first time in his excellent career, he didn't enjoy the best of ends to what had been a cracking 2014 campaign with some bad experiences in Canada & a poor run in the Breeders Cup. He is back at his best trip here & should be ready to take this out on his first start of the year.
Azheemah ran what are becoming increasingly regular below par runs here last time after an excellent first effort back in handicap, he can easily bounce back but there is a slight worry that his best is behind him.
Rio Tigre is worth an E/W investment.
Rio Tigre is worth an E/W investment.
The UAE Derby has attracted a fabulous looking field;
Mubtaahij has been a revelation so far this season & put up his best display so far when scooting away from the previously unbeaten Sir Fever, will be hard to beat again.
Saudi Arabia have 2 representatives in the shape of the 4 time seeking Alnajem Alfaiz who was impressive when seeing off stablemate Motaa last time in a local Grade 1, both are likely to fall short in this much more competitive company however.
For me it wasn't all doom & gloom last time for Sir Fever as he looked in dire need of the race & stayed on well near to the line, he will strip fitter & can get closer to Mubtaahij. Faithful Creek showed useful Juvenile form but has no hope on Dirt first time.
Tap That was most disappointing in the Hyacinth Stakes last time & has to prove that was a flash in the pan.
Golden Barows was an impressive winner of the Hyacinth Stakes & in fact he has been hugely impressive on his last 3 starts, he could be wildly underrated from a mark of 107.
For me it wasn't all doom & gloom last time for Sir Fever as he looked in dire need of the race & stayed on well near to the line, he will strip fitter & can get closer to Mubtaahij. Faithful Creek showed useful Juvenile form but has no hope on Dirt first time.
Tap That was most disappointing in the Hyacinth Stakes last time & has to prove that was a flash in the pan.
Golden Barows was an impressive winner of the Hyacinth Stakes & in fact he has been hugely impressive on his last 3 starts, he could be wildly underrated from a mark of 107.
My Johnny Be Good was beaten out of sight in the Tampa Bay Derby & connections are clearly hoping this is a less competitive race to earn Kentucky Derby points in,...its clearly not.
Maftool missed the trial for this as connections were clearly hoping that Sir Fever would win that, he made amends for an unlucky run in the trial to win the Guineas with a smooth performance, he should stay the extra distance & rates another big player.
Dear Domus was also behind Golden Barows last time out after previously being unbeaten, his run was not without promise & can do better here although has been thrown in the deep end.
Sir Fever is tempting at his current odds but I will leave alone.
The Al Quoz Sprint has attracted a stacked field similar to the trial;
Green Mask has been placed on his last 2 starts in his native US in much lesser grade & needs more. Bundle Of Joy is useful Hong Kong sprinter who came back to form with a good 2nd last time out, not to be dismissed lightly.
Hototo gained a deserved win on opening night & backed that up with a solid run next time, this however is much tougher.
Via Africa came with a huge reputation last time but was below par for me, she will need to improve a bundle to get involved in as equally as hot a race.
Farmah was a ludicrous price on dirt last time & was duly found out, he was progressive on Turf in minor pattern company last year but this requires more.
Sir Maximilian did me a grand turn last time showing his class to get up on the line in the trial, he will need more here but his style will be suited to another strongly run race & has to come into the reckoning again.
Sole Power ran well enough in the trial but perhaps showed less of his normal zip than he has in the past, he has yet to win in Dubai in his illustrious career & although he is the undoubted class I would look elsewhere.
Mirza missed the trial & as a result comes into this race having his first start of the year, a classy sprinter at his best but may just need this after his slight setback.
Stepper Point so often the bridesmaid in these big races deserves a big race win & has been primed for this for some time. Amber Sky made all to win this last year but has not been in the same form since in his native Hong Kong.
Casper Netscher ran a blinding trial for this when trying 5f for the first time in a long time last time, he is capable of getting involved but does face some true 5f speedters here & may just lack that zip. Caspian Prince has earned his crack at the big one after a superb win in handicap company 2 starts back but had his limitations exposed last time in Group company. Ahtoug looked the winner until the line last time out, he is coming to the boil at the right time & must be involved.
Distinctive Passion mixes turf & dirt sprinting in the US, a decent horse but likely to be found out here. Lancelot Du Luc couldn't handle Group company last time & has little chance here. Hong Kong sprinting star Peniaphobia has been keeping his form well recently & has developed a big turn of pace that has been a big advantage to him in his adopted homeland, overall I do have doubts that he will be up to this international Grade as I still remember him winning the Super Sprint in a blanket finish as a 2yo.
Some terrific value to had here, Ahtoug (NAP) at 8/1 is very appealing from his high draw.
The Golden Shaheen has looked all season long at the mercy of the Americans;
Montiridge formerly a classy miler in the UK who regressed towards the end of last season when he tried sprinting on several occasions, he has since relocated to Saudi Arabia & won 2 noncompetitive races on the dirt. He however is not a sprinter & will struggle here. Speed Hawk has run some super races on the dirt including in the trial last time when worn down late on, he has minor place chances here.
Krypton Factor ran below par after a cracking comeback effort, chances are he will be primed for this though & could well get involved.
Rich Tapestry created history when becoming the first Hong Kong based horse to win in the US, he did not back that up when strong fav for the Breeders Cup & was a well beaten 2nd on Tapeta last year, may just need more to get involved here.
Salutos Amigos has been unbeatable at Aqueduct on his last 4 starts with dominant displays each time, not to be taken lightly upped to the top company.
Big Macher has yet to breakthrough or even truly get involved in Top level company so far but has been impressive in lesser grades, he still remains with promise & could enjoy the way this race will pan out. Secret Circle has been close to the top of the sprinting tree in the US for the last 2 years but was without a win last year lacking that finish punch on several occasions. Lucky Nine has been a superb old sprinter in Hong Kong but faces a massive task on his dirt debut at the age of 8.
United Color ran back to his best in the trial last time but overall needs more.
Shaishee gained a deserved 2nd Carnival win when mopping up from the strong pace in the trial last time, he showed tenacity & guts which will stand him in good stead here.
El Padrino is decent in Singapore but hasn't a chance here.
Super Jockey won a handicap on dirt on Hong Kong last time but this a vastly tougher task. Cool Cowboy ran a promising race in the trial last time, he is entitled to come on for that & could get involved. Muarrab is unbeatable at Jebel Ali & ran well here back in January, this has been the long term & although the draw has not been kind he must hold excellent claims of keeping the prize local.
Not a race I would be keen to get involved with.
The newly renamed Dubai Turf the first of the top 3 races of the night is honestly like all 3 main events below par on what we are used to with just the 9 runners;
Euro Charline progressed from wins at Wolverhampton last year to win the Beverly D in decisive fashion, she was not seen since & for me faces a big task first time out against the boys.
Umgiyo as we learnt last time is not a stayer but he is now back at the trip that saw him produce a tremendous performance first time out at the Carnival, lightly raced & still improving he could easily do a Jay Peg here & is considered at big odds.
Mshawish couldn't win this last year when already a proven Carnival winner, he has since transferred to the easier North American Turf scene & has won his last 2 starts in less than convincing style, can't have him here.
Earnshaw ran a promising first race in Dubai behind the classy Safety Check, the step up in trip will help & he has plenty of promise to still fulfil & could easily give his rookie trainer his biggest winner.
Limario wouldn't have a chance in a normal year but has at least a slim chance of hitting the frame here.
The Grey Gatsby improved beyond all recognition last season including when proving Australia to a mere mortal at Leopardstown, his overall profile has suggested he will need his first run of the year & is worth taking on.
Trade Storm ran a great trial for this & as this is less competitive than normal he is another who has chances of taking out another Group 1 victory.
Cladocera has been imperious in the fillies division & looks the type who can hold her own against the colts, worthy of huge respect.
Farraaj is not up to winning in this class as he has proven on many occasions but could hit the frame on his UAE debut.
Solow was most progressive in France on various grounds last year & warmed up for this with a comfortable all weather win, this is by far his biggest test & although it may not be the best Duty Free he is very short.
Umgiyo is very tempting at rewarding odds.
The Sheema Classic has again like the Duty Free attracted just 9 runners;
Sheikhzayadroad has improved over the last year & should not be underestimated if we get a strongly run race.
Dolniya showed the better tactical speed to account for Flintshire on the all weather last time out, she is a useful filly but this demands more.
True Story is perhaps for most a surprising representative from Godolphin after looking one paced behind the fragile Sky Hunter in the trial, he was incorrectly ridden that day as he is far more effective when ridden aggressively, player if those tactics are adopted. Flintshire gained a deserved win in Hong Kong after a series of top class efforts last year, he should prove well suited to Dubai & has to be involved.
Main Sequence the best turf horse in the US bids to extend to 6, whether he can continue that in Dubai now is the question as clearly the US training regime suits so well. If he can perform to his best then quite simply he'll win.
One And Only last year's Japanese Derby winner failed to perform against his elders thereafter including when well beaten in the Japan Cup, he can improve again at 4 but will need too.
Designs On Rome has been a top horse in Hong Kong at trips of 9 - 10f & duly won at the international meeting in December, he has since backed that up with another 2 wins but the big issue here is the trip as he only tried it once when well beaten & his stamina is surely suspect.
Just The Judge is another suspect stayer who continues on her international rounds, she finally started to get back to the filly we all hoped she was at the end of last year but this is a huge ask.
Harp Star has long held a high reputation but having now watched so many of her races she herself seems to be the reason that she has been beaten on her last 3 starts, she just drops anchor & gives herself far too much to do. Ryan Moore is a huge plus but does she deserve to be favourite on that basis alone, not at all.
Flintshire can regain the winning thread here but True Story is insulting over priced.
So to the big one of the whole Carnival the World's richest race lets not beat around the bush its a hugely disappointing renewal overall;
Old Prince Bishop tries again on the big race & again on dirt after missing the break before staying on late in both starts this term, place chances.
Hokko Tarumae couldn't hack the Tapeta last year in this race but is near unbeatable in Japan on dirt so must be respected on that basis here.
African Story showed guts & determination to win on the dirt surface that he clearly hates last time, he earned a crack at defending his title but may just struggle against the Americans.
Side Glance a perennial runner in this race faces a huge task on his dirt debut.
Lea is a much improved older performer in the US but seemingly had his limitations exposed last time however he should still be good enough for a place here.
Candy Boy was a useful 3yo in the US last season but was well behind Chrome on several occasions, interesting however on his first Doug Watson start.
Long River was hugely disappointing here last time & is well below the top US runners here.
Epiphaneia bolted up when having every fall into place in the Japan Cup late last year, he is all about stamina & has never touched dirt in his life, he has potential to handle it but I couldn't have him here.
Last year's US horse of the year California Chrome has been handed a massive opportunity with defections, he has been my selection for this since late last year & everything appears in place for a massive effort after a more than satisfactory effort last time. On his Kentucky Derby & Preakness wins he is head & shoulders above his rivals so I fully expect him to out on a display of Chrome Power.
Have already backed him some months ago & will be cheering home California Chrome once more.
Maftool missed the trial for this as connections were clearly hoping that Sir Fever would win that, he made amends for an unlucky run in the trial to win the Guineas with a smooth performance, he should stay the extra distance & rates another big player.
Dear Domus was also behind Golden Barows last time out after previously being unbeaten, his run was not without promise & can do better here although has been thrown in the deep end.
Sir Fever is tempting at his current odds but I will leave alone.
The Al Quoz Sprint has attracted a stacked field similar to the trial;
Green Mask has been placed on his last 2 starts in his native US in much lesser grade & needs more. Bundle Of Joy is useful Hong Kong sprinter who came back to form with a good 2nd last time out, not to be dismissed lightly.
Hototo gained a deserved win on opening night & backed that up with a solid run next time, this however is much tougher.
Via Africa came with a huge reputation last time but was below par for me, she will need to improve a bundle to get involved in as equally as hot a race.
Farmah was a ludicrous price on dirt last time & was duly found out, he was progressive on Turf in minor pattern company last year but this requires more.
Sir Maximilian did me a grand turn last time showing his class to get up on the line in the trial, he will need more here but his style will be suited to another strongly run race & has to come into the reckoning again.
Sole Power ran well enough in the trial but perhaps showed less of his normal zip than he has in the past, he has yet to win in Dubai in his illustrious career & although he is the undoubted class I would look elsewhere.
Mirza missed the trial & as a result comes into this race having his first start of the year, a classy sprinter at his best but may just need this after his slight setback.
Stepper Point so often the bridesmaid in these big races deserves a big race win & has been primed for this for some time. Amber Sky made all to win this last year but has not been in the same form since in his native Hong Kong.
Casper Netscher ran a blinding trial for this when trying 5f for the first time in a long time last time, he is capable of getting involved but does face some true 5f speedters here & may just lack that zip. Caspian Prince has earned his crack at the big one after a superb win in handicap company 2 starts back but had his limitations exposed last time in Group company. Ahtoug looked the winner until the line last time out, he is coming to the boil at the right time & must be involved.
Distinctive Passion mixes turf & dirt sprinting in the US, a decent horse but likely to be found out here. Lancelot Du Luc couldn't handle Group company last time & has little chance here. Hong Kong sprinting star Peniaphobia has been keeping his form well recently & has developed a big turn of pace that has been a big advantage to him in his adopted homeland, overall I do have doubts that he will be up to this international Grade as I still remember him winning the Super Sprint in a blanket finish as a 2yo.
Some terrific value to had here, Ahtoug (NAP) at 8/1 is very appealing from his high draw.
The Golden Shaheen has looked all season long at the mercy of the Americans;
Montiridge formerly a classy miler in the UK who regressed towards the end of last season when he tried sprinting on several occasions, he has since relocated to Saudi Arabia & won 2 noncompetitive races on the dirt. He however is not a sprinter & will struggle here. Speed Hawk has run some super races on the dirt including in the trial last time when worn down late on, he has minor place chances here.
Krypton Factor ran below par after a cracking comeback effort, chances are he will be primed for this though & could well get involved.
Rich Tapestry created history when becoming the first Hong Kong based horse to win in the US, he did not back that up when strong fav for the Breeders Cup & was a well beaten 2nd on Tapeta last year, may just need more to get involved here.
Salutos Amigos has been unbeatable at Aqueduct on his last 4 starts with dominant displays each time, not to be taken lightly upped to the top company.
Big Macher has yet to breakthrough or even truly get involved in Top level company so far but has been impressive in lesser grades, he still remains with promise & could enjoy the way this race will pan out. Secret Circle has been close to the top of the sprinting tree in the US for the last 2 years but was without a win last year lacking that finish punch on several occasions. Lucky Nine has been a superb old sprinter in Hong Kong but faces a massive task on his dirt debut at the age of 8.
United Color ran back to his best in the trial last time but overall needs more.
Shaishee gained a deserved 2nd Carnival win when mopping up from the strong pace in the trial last time, he showed tenacity & guts which will stand him in good stead here.
El Padrino is decent in Singapore but hasn't a chance here.
Super Jockey won a handicap on dirt on Hong Kong last time but this a vastly tougher task. Cool Cowboy ran a promising race in the trial last time, he is entitled to come on for that & could get involved. Muarrab is unbeatable at Jebel Ali & ran well here back in January, this has been the long term & although the draw has not been kind he must hold excellent claims of keeping the prize local.
Not a race I would be keen to get involved with.
The newly renamed Dubai Turf the first of the top 3 races of the night is honestly like all 3 main events below par on what we are used to with just the 9 runners;
Euro Charline progressed from wins at Wolverhampton last year to win the Beverly D in decisive fashion, she was not seen since & for me faces a big task first time out against the boys.
Umgiyo as we learnt last time is not a stayer but he is now back at the trip that saw him produce a tremendous performance first time out at the Carnival, lightly raced & still improving he could easily do a Jay Peg here & is considered at big odds.
Mshawish couldn't win this last year when already a proven Carnival winner, he has since transferred to the easier North American Turf scene & has won his last 2 starts in less than convincing style, can't have him here.
Earnshaw ran a promising first race in Dubai behind the classy Safety Check, the step up in trip will help & he has plenty of promise to still fulfil & could easily give his rookie trainer his biggest winner.
Limario wouldn't have a chance in a normal year but has at least a slim chance of hitting the frame here.
The Grey Gatsby improved beyond all recognition last season including when proving Australia to a mere mortal at Leopardstown, his overall profile has suggested he will need his first run of the year & is worth taking on.
Trade Storm ran a great trial for this & as this is less competitive than normal he is another who has chances of taking out another Group 1 victory.
Cladocera has been imperious in the fillies division & looks the type who can hold her own against the colts, worthy of huge respect.
Farraaj is not up to winning in this class as he has proven on many occasions but could hit the frame on his UAE debut.
Solow was most progressive in France on various grounds last year & warmed up for this with a comfortable all weather win, this is by far his biggest test & although it may not be the best Duty Free he is very short.
Umgiyo is very tempting at rewarding odds.
The Sheema Classic has again like the Duty Free attracted just 9 runners;
Sheikhzayadroad has improved over the last year & should not be underestimated if we get a strongly run race.
Dolniya showed the better tactical speed to account for Flintshire on the all weather last time out, she is a useful filly but this demands more.
True Story is perhaps for most a surprising representative from Godolphin after looking one paced behind the fragile Sky Hunter in the trial, he was incorrectly ridden that day as he is far more effective when ridden aggressively, player if those tactics are adopted. Flintshire gained a deserved win in Hong Kong after a series of top class efforts last year, he should prove well suited to Dubai & has to be involved.
Main Sequence the best turf horse in the US bids to extend to 6, whether he can continue that in Dubai now is the question as clearly the US training regime suits so well. If he can perform to his best then quite simply he'll win.
One And Only last year's Japanese Derby winner failed to perform against his elders thereafter including when well beaten in the Japan Cup, he can improve again at 4 but will need too.
Designs On Rome has been a top horse in Hong Kong at trips of 9 - 10f & duly won at the international meeting in December, he has since backed that up with another 2 wins but the big issue here is the trip as he only tried it once when well beaten & his stamina is surely suspect.
Just The Judge is another suspect stayer who continues on her international rounds, she finally started to get back to the filly we all hoped she was at the end of last year but this is a huge ask.
Harp Star has long held a high reputation but having now watched so many of her races she herself seems to be the reason that she has been beaten on her last 3 starts, she just drops anchor & gives herself far too much to do. Ryan Moore is a huge plus but does she deserve to be favourite on that basis alone, not at all.
Flintshire can regain the winning thread here but True Story is insulting over priced.
So to the big one of the whole Carnival the World's richest race lets not beat around the bush its a hugely disappointing renewal overall;
Old Prince Bishop tries again on the big race & again on dirt after missing the break before staying on late in both starts this term, place chances.
Hokko Tarumae couldn't hack the Tapeta last year in this race but is near unbeatable in Japan on dirt so must be respected on that basis here.
African Story showed guts & determination to win on the dirt surface that he clearly hates last time, he earned a crack at defending his title but may just struggle against the Americans.
Side Glance a perennial runner in this race faces a huge task on his dirt debut.
Lea is a much improved older performer in the US but seemingly had his limitations exposed last time however he should still be good enough for a place here.
Candy Boy was a useful 3yo in the US last season but was well behind Chrome on several occasions, interesting however on his first Doug Watson start.
Long River was hugely disappointing here last time & is well below the top US runners here.
Epiphaneia bolted up when having every fall into place in the Japan Cup late last year, he is all about stamina & has never touched dirt in his life, he has potential to handle it but I couldn't have him here.
Last year's US horse of the year California Chrome has been handed a massive opportunity with defections, he has been my selection for this since late last year & everything appears in place for a massive effort after a more than satisfactory effort last time. On his Kentucky Derby & Preakness wins he is head & shoulders above his rivals so I fully expect him to out on a display of Chrome Power.
Have already backed him some months ago & will be cheering home California Chrome once more.
@fttfracing
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