Hello & welcome along to all, the blog returns after a well earned months hiatus, after years of writing religiously for all the major race meetings it has been refreshing to take a step back but with the Flat season now hitting top gear I have decided to return to something I enjoy doing far too much & have missed.
The opening Classic of the season has a much more open feel than in recent years which is indicative of the lack of genuine stars at 2 but none the less the race has attracted 19 useful colts who have all shown decent form at least once in their career.
In recent years low drawn horses have dominated & with several of the higher profile animals drawn high the race opens up even more although the pace does look quite evenly spread across the field.
Bossy Guest has yet to attempt a mile & is a doubtful stayer on all known evidence, he won well enough at the April meeting over 6f but will struggle here.
Bossy Guest has yet to attempt a mile & is a doubtful stayer on all known evidence, he won well enough at the April meeting over 6f but will struggle here.
Cappella Sansevero was a decent early season 2yo who failed to progress afterwards, stamina on a stiff mile course is a huge doubt for a sprint pedigree.
Celestial Path is a sizable animal who looks to have done well from 2 to 3 via the recent pictures on social media, he kept on well on bad ground in the Racing Post Trophy for a horse with a genuine fast ground action, prior to that he had disposed of inferior opposition in 2 minor races. Not without a chance from what could turn out to be a good draw.
Code Red is a sprinter trying to be a miler, he was outclassed in a strangely run Greenham & has little hope here.
Dutch Connection improved from a Goodwood Nursery to win a Group 3 which hasn't worked out at all well overall despite 2nd placed Toocoolforschool winning a Group 2 next time (disappointed in the Greenham this year), he was then outpointed by Gleneagles in a race which wasn't run to suit on his final start, likely stronger pace here will suit better but still has work to do overall.
Code Red is a sprinter trying to be a miler, he was outclassed in a strangely run Greenham & has little hope here.
Dutch Connection improved from a Goodwood Nursery to win a Group 3 which hasn't worked out at all well overall despite 2nd placed Toocoolforschool winning a Group 2 next time (disappointed in the Greenham this year), he was then outpointed by Gleneagles in a race which wasn't run to suit on his final start, likely stronger pace here will suit better but still has work to do overall.
Elm Park improved on each start last season culminating in an authoritative success on his favoured soft ground in the Racing Post Trophy, he has won on fast ground but as a big heavy horse who hits the ground it would be far from ideal on his first start at 3 years, he showed some waywardness in the straight when winning the Royal Lodge over course & distance at 2 which is a concern. Overall for me he appears to slow to win a Guineas.
Estidkhaar is quite along lean horse who looked a solid 2yo when I saw him in the flesh at Doncaster, he struck me as the type of horse who had little improvement left in him from 2 - 3. He was hugely disappointing in the Dewhurst on his final start & all his very best form is on rain softened ground, he had the run of the race in the Greenham & still could not hold his lesser fancied owner mate Muharrar, what was most noticeable was his head carriage which was out to the left which is an indication that he was finishing the ground much too fast. He is far too short in the betting for me.
Glenalmond is a gorgeous big black beast who remains with potential, he was too keen in the Free Handicap when attempting to make all before fading. He will be better suited to a strongly run affair here & promises to stay 1 mile well & could easily outrun his odds.
Gleneagles had an excellent 2yo season & is unbeaten in his last 4 starts (technically 5 but he was thrown out in controversial circumstances at Longchamp in October last year). Until that Longchamp race he had beaten little but he showed a clean pair of heels that day although Territories who finished in behind had a fruitless passage after pulling too hard, entitled to be favourite but is vulnerable to an improver.
Hail The Hero is hopelessly outclassed on all known form.
Home Of The Brave made all to record a cosy success in the Free Handicap & he attempts to become the first horse to go on to win the 2000 Guineas since Mystiko in 1991, the last horse to win at a mile after winning the Free Handicap was Indian Haven way back in 2003 who went onto win the Irish 2000 Guineas. On pedigree there is a concern that a stiff mile will be too much for Hugo Palmer's inmate & making all in the Guineas will be a tough ask from his high draw. His form is a long way below overall what is required of a normal Guineas winner & I cannot see him getting involved.
Intilaaq is incredibly short after just a maiden success albeit by 8 lengths at Newbury recently, he is a false price due to the openness of the race & to be truthful if he was truly fancied Hanagan would be on board, he will do well to make all here & he strikes me as a horse who will excel in time over further.
The worry with Ivawood has always been his size & that he was so far ahead of his rivals as a 2yo that he may not have as much progression left in him at 3, he ended last season having been out battled in the Middle Park which looked too short for him on that day. Others appeared to have caught up with him in terms of physique in the Greenham & he was caught flat footed when his stablemate quickened the pace that day failing to stay on to any real effect. He will struggle to get involved here.
Kool Kompany benefitted from an excellent ride by Richard Hughes when winning the Craven over a trip he had never looked likely of staying but the slow pace allowed him to take the sting out of his rivals to last home, its a fact that it will not happen here & he will do well to get anywhere near the places.
Moheet is a most interesting runner, a wonderfully made son of High Chaparral who will likely come into his own over further, he created a favourable impression with an excellent debut win at Salisbury on his only start at 2, He reappeared in the Craven when sent off favourite only to be inconvenienced by his stablemates tactics, he got going late off the slow pace to finish with some affect, The strong pace will really suit & he is hugely overpriced to provide Frankie with more Guineas glory.
Ol'Man River sees Joseph O'Brien return to the saddle after struggling with his flat riding weight so far this season, unbeaten in 2 starts he looked a colt of immense promise last year showing a likeable attitude on his last start, he has a low draw & could easily prove best of the Ballydoyle pair.
Ride Like The Wind won the traditional French 2000 Guineas trial the Djebel just getting up in the dying strides, overall he is relatively exposed & will need to improve to get involved at the business end.
Room Key is a gorgeous big chestnut he was a shell at 2, he won nicely on debut at Salisbury then followed up with a decent effort in 2nd at the same track. Upped in class he did not disgrace himself when slightly hampered behind Highland Reel at Goodwood in Group 2 company finishing a encouraging 3rd. He then made the trip to Doncaster to run in a hot edition of the Champagne, that race was run in snatches & it paid to be close to the pace, he wasn't disagreed again in 5th that day. He has done very well over the winter & did a lovely piece of work at Newbury the other week. His current odds are quite frankly insulting & for me he cannot go unbacked in a race that in recent years has thrown up some bog priced place getters. Whatever happens on Saturday he is a horse to stay on the right side of in 2015.
Territories comes over from Andre Fabre's stable representing Godolphin after a fluent success in the Fontainebleau, he was unlucky in the Lagardere last year when interfered with most of all by Gleneagles passage through. The type who looked like he would make a 3yo he is huge player here with his turn of foot a huge asset, Fabre's record second to none in the last 5 seasons he boasts a 50% strike rate with 3 year olds with 2 winners from just the 4 runners. He could quite easily kick start a superb weekend for Godolphin.
1st: Territories
2nd: Moheet
3rd: Room Key
Hail The Hero is hopelessly outclassed on all known form.
Home Of The Brave made all to record a cosy success in the Free Handicap & he attempts to become the first horse to go on to win the 2000 Guineas since Mystiko in 1991, the last horse to win at a mile after winning the Free Handicap was Indian Haven way back in 2003 who went onto win the Irish 2000 Guineas. On pedigree there is a concern that a stiff mile will be too much for Hugo Palmer's inmate & making all in the Guineas will be a tough ask from his high draw. His form is a long way below overall what is required of a normal Guineas winner & I cannot see him getting involved.
Intilaaq is incredibly short after just a maiden success albeit by 8 lengths at Newbury recently, he is a false price due to the openness of the race & to be truthful if he was truly fancied Hanagan would be on board, he will do well to make all here & he strikes me as a horse who will excel in time over further.
The worry with Ivawood has always been his size & that he was so far ahead of his rivals as a 2yo that he may not have as much progression left in him at 3, he ended last season having been out battled in the Middle Park which looked too short for him on that day. Others appeared to have caught up with him in terms of physique in the Greenham & he was caught flat footed when his stablemate quickened the pace that day failing to stay on to any real effect. He will struggle to get involved here.
Kool Kompany benefitted from an excellent ride by Richard Hughes when winning the Craven over a trip he had never looked likely of staying but the slow pace allowed him to take the sting out of his rivals to last home, its a fact that it will not happen here & he will do well to get anywhere near the places.
Moheet is a most interesting runner, a wonderfully made son of High Chaparral who will likely come into his own over further, he created a favourable impression with an excellent debut win at Salisbury on his only start at 2, He reappeared in the Craven when sent off favourite only to be inconvenienced by his stablemates tactics, he got going late off the slow pace to finish with some affect, The strong pace will really suit & he is hugely overpriced to provide Frankie with more Guineas glory.
Ol'Man River sees Joseph O'Brien return to the saddle after struggling with his flat riding weight so far this season, unbeaten in 2 starts he looked a colt of immense promise last year showing a likeable attitude on his last start, he has a low draw & could easily prove best of the Ballydoyle pair.
Ride Like The Wind won the traditional French 2000 Guineas trial the Djebel just getting up in the dying strides, overall he is relatively exposed & will need to improve to get involved at the business end.
Room Key is a gorgeous big chestnut he was a shell at 2, he won nicely on debut at Salisbury then followed up with a decent effort in 2nd at the same track. Upped in class he did not disgrace himself when slightly hampered behind Highland Reel at Goodwood in Group 2 company finishing a encouraging 3rd. He then made the trip to Doncaster to run in a hot edition of the Champagne, that race was run in snatches & it paid to be close to the pace, he wasn't disagreed again in 5th that day. He has done very well over the winter & did a lovely piece of work at Newbury the other week. His current odds are quite frankly insulting & for me he cannot go unbacked in a race that in recent years has thrown up some bog priced place getters. Whatever happens on Saturday he is a horse to stay on the right side of in 2015.
Territories comes over from Andre Fabre's stable representing Godolphin after a fluent success in the Fontainebleau, he was unlucky in the Lagardere last year when interfered with most of all by Gleneagles passage through. The type who looked like he would make a 3yo he is huge player here with his turn of foot a huge asset, Fabre's record second to none in the last 5 seasons he boasts a 50% strike rate with 3 year olds with 2 winners from just the 4 runners. He could quite easily kick start a superb weekend for Godolphin.
Intriguing renewal with many in with chances but I will side with the Andre Fabre trained Territories 6/1 who I feel may well have the class to see off his rivals.
Moheet 25/1 E/W is a surefire improver with a strong pace & is overpriced.
I cannot leave Room Key 125/1 E/W unbacked from a shrewd stable as he is incredibly overpriced for a horse of immense potential.
2nd: Moheet
3rd: Room Key
@fttfracing
No comments:
Post a Comment