Hello & welcome along to my latest blog & the first since Guineas weekend at the start of the month, due to time constraints & my 14 month old son (who would rather Daddy plays Thomas or takes him to the park than write gibberish about Horse Racing) I am not able to write as many pieces to a standard that I would be happy with at present so I would like to apologise to my loyal readers for the lack of input in the month of May hopefully I will be able to get a few more done in the next few weeks.
In the meantime my daily / weekly thoughts can also be found on
+OLBG www.olbg.com where I appear under the name Boyinwaiting (http://www.olbg.com/tipster/history.php?id=148823)
Brigadier Gerard Evening at Sandown Park rarely lets us down with the quality of horse flesh on show & this year is no exception.
The 5f National Stakes sees a rematch between impressive Ascot maiden winner Steady Pace from the Boys in Blue & the hugely impressive recent Newbury maiden winner King Of Rooks who was a well held 3rd behind Steady Pace. The draw always plays a huge part in these 5f events & of the two King Of Rooks has done better on that front in stall 3, Steady Pace is out in the centre of the track in stall 6.
King Of Rooks was well backed at Ascot, he travelled into competition well enough but he challenged down what appeared to be the unfavoured part of the track that day & towards the end fitness told, he appeared less than a week later to hose up at Newbury. Clearly has a huge chance of turning his debut form around with Steady Pace & enhancing his stables excellent record in this race.
Steady Pace himself was a unconsidered 10/1 chance at Ascot who seemed to get the hang of things late on challenging closest to the stands side rail before pulling well clear of the field, he has progressed again since at home & will surely be involved but the draw could be his downfall here if he adopts the same hold up tactics.
Tawdheef made an impressive winning debut on rattling fast ground at Bath recently, he looked a colt of potential & should be up to Listed class but is another to have been dealt a blow by his draw in stall 8. Case Key broke the Charles Hills losing run when winning 10 days ago in useful style, his winning time compares favourably to the other maiden winners in this race & he has a great draw to attack under Ryan Moore.
Areen another once raced maiden winner but his job has been made much harder by drawing the highest stall. Buratino scored in Novice company last time, more exposed with 3 runs under his belt than others in this race but should put his experience to good use but will likely come up short. Handytalk has finished in behind in 2 good races recently but will need more here. Strands Of Silk is the only filly in the lineup, she won well enough on debut but faces a tough task here against some potentially useful colts. Silver Wings has been beaten in lesser company on his last 2 starts & will struggle here.
Excellent race in which I can't split Steady Pace or King Of Rooks so I will sit this one out.
The Henry II Stakes has attracted an intriguing small field with a mixture of old staying stalwarts & handful of exciting new shooters.
Old High Jinx finally broke through at Group 1 level under an inspired Ryan Moore ride at Longchamp last October, he has been beaten fair & square both starts since including on his only start this season & is hoping to make it 3rd time lucky in this race after 2nd / 4th place finishes in the last 2 seasons.
The consistent hardy handicapper Aussie Reigns steps up to 2 miles for the first time & tries Group company for the 5th company in his career, like so many horses of his rating is not quite upto Group company & struggles in the top handicaps.
Veteran Forgotten Voice has been a tremendous servant over the years but was exposed as on the decline last season & I see no reason for that to have changed as he embarks on his 10th racing season.
Simenon had a lacklustre campaign last year looking uninterested on several occasions, he did win a graded hurdle in July but he is not getting any younger & I would expect the new kids on the block to have his measure.
Forever Now has run well on both starts this season including on his first try at 2 miles at Ascot last time where he attempted to make all before fading late, ideally he would need a lead to give him a good chance of getting involved at the business end.
Trip To Paris deserves a crack at pattern class after completing a hat trick in the Chester Cup last time in good style, he won with much more in hand than the winning distance suggested, he is improving quickly at this extended distance & has to be respected.
Vent De Force enjoyed a progressive 3yo season, he has long been held in high regard by his astute trainer & he went a long way to confirming that belief with an excellent 2nd from a long way off the pace in the Sagaro Stakes on his seasonal debut, he should have come on for that & looks the one to beat here.
Alwilda is a well bred filly who has been in search of black type at in & around these distances last year but has so far proved well below this class.
I will take Vent De Force 7/2 to push forward his Gold Cup claims.
The big race of the night has a rich history with such greats as Mtoto, Pilsudski & Bosra Sham having won before going on to even better things.
Tryster has carried all before him since being gelded & taken the All Weather by storm winning his last 5 starts, his last 2 starts have seen him produce breathtaking turns of foot to settle his races in a flash. As a result lofty plans have arisen as has his rating, this is by far his toughest test against 3 proven Group performers 2 of which have plenty more to offer this season. His advantage could be the trip as he is clearly a specialist whereas his big 2 rivals may well be better over further. One of the negatives is that he is clearly a fairly quirky individual who has had plenty of racing already this year & in his last 5 wins has had a strong pace to aim at which I doubt he will get here.
Arab Spring has long been on my tracker ever since his taking run in a 3yo maiden 2 years ago, he was not seen for almost a year after that but quickly made up for lost time winning his next 4 starts on the bounce before incurring a minor injury that kept him off the track until his winning reappearance in the John Porter back in April. His last 3 wins have been at 12f but he has won twice at 10f so the step back in trip should not inconvenience him as he attempts to follow in Pilsudski's hoofprints who won this race for the same trainer & owners in 1996, his trainer has won the race 7 times since 1991.
John Gosden saddles 2 recent course & distance winner Western Hymn who was impressive in The Gordon Richards, that race has so far worked out well with Cannock Chase & Postponed both running well on their next start plus Ayrad won a Listed event last Saturday albeit a poor one. He could well have turned the corner this year & is worthy of respect.
Stablemate the long absent Eagle Top returns after not being seen since finishing 4th in last year's King George after winning last year's King Edward at Royal Ascot, he is sure to be ready to run but you would imagine he will need this especially over a trip that is for me short of his best as he looks a strong stayer but to counter that argument I have seen plenty of talk of him being a genuine Group 1 horse so he will cope with the drop in trip, I can't see that myself he is bred to stay 2 miles & has needed all of the 12f trip to get on top of a non stayer in Adelaide last year as for being a Group 1 horse...not for me yet...Adelaide was Group 1 class in Australia in America but not here & you can't say that a well beaten 4th in the King George means he is genuinely above his rivals here. Perhaps surprisingly John Gosden has only won this race once in his great career with Red Bishop in 1993.
Niceofyoutotellme is a good class handicapper who has his races spaced out as he is best fresh, he ran an encouraging race on his return in Group company behind French Navy who would not be in the class of the competitors in this race, he has work to do but could well outrun his odds for a long way.
Tullius has been a grand old campaigner but he needs soft ground to be a his best.
Arab Spring 5/2 can take this out before returning for the Eclipse.
The Heron Stakes is another race which has a deep history with future Group 1 winners Among Men, Kalanisi & Proclamation all gracing the Sandown Turf.
Sir Michael Stoute has won this race 9 times since 1980, this year he saddles once raced maiden winner Consort who was impressive on his only start, he has been slow to come to hand this year & eventually he should stay further but this looks a perfect starting point, hugely interesting runner.
Dancetrack showed useful form at 2 & made a pleasing appearance back in April at Longfield, the winner that day has since finished 2nd in the German 2000 Guineas. Stable is in better form now & has chances.
Godolphin run 3: Emirates Skycargo; who has been extremely busy since January progressing through handicaps & now faces a much tougher test.
Once raced hugely impressive 12 length maiden winner Ijmaaly; bolted up at Lingfield travelling like a Group class horse before extending away to win with ease, the race may not amount to much but he could not have done more, Paul Hanagan takes the ride as SBS's main jockey James Doyle has seemingly chosen to go elsewhere but from my Godolphin contact has informed me that Sheikh Hamdan has an interest in the horse so it makes sense for his number 1 jockey to ride.
The final Godolphin runner is Secret Brief who was a well beaten non staying 8th in another sales race on his return this year. He showed no more than useful form at 2 until it suddenly clicked winning 2 big pots in the backend Newmarket sales races, those races as form guides overall are poor & he has plenty to find here.
Flaming Spear has been thrown in at the deep end since his debut win & he has so far failed to make any sort of impact, best watched here.
Johnny Barnes is a strange horse who won a useful maiden on debut, was well beaten next time in a small field affair who then went onto win another small field extremely poor conditions event at Leicester on bottomless ground before finishing 2nd in what is perennially a weak Group 1 at Saint Cloud on bad ground in November. Soft ground does appear to have brought improvement in him & that is a worry here plus even allowing for a Group 1 place is he actually up to this.
Room Key is a lovely big chestnut horse who did in truth find the 2000 Guineas too much for him on his seasonal debut but he still ran well to a point, this is much more realistic & I would expect a much better showing here.
White Lake was the best looking 2yo in the flesh that I had seen in a long time when he ran at Doncaster last year. He looked every inch a 3yo in waiting, on the face of it his Craven run was disappointing but that race was run at a crawl & his stable was slightly out of form back then, there are going much better now & he will have come on bundles for that so he is taken to confirm that paddock promise here before going on to better things.
I will take White Lake to prove what a good horse he is.
@fttfracing
No comments:
Post a Comment